The Weekend Spotlight - Week 8 Edition, 2011

#28 Maurice Morris will be the #1 RB for the Lions again this week.

Welcome back ladies and gentlemen, to the week 8 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  I am your host, KDawg.  This installment of your weekly WS will feature your Detroit Lions versus the Denver Broncos, on the road in Denver, CO, at Mile High Stadium.  Coming off of their second loss in a row, the Lions are now 5-2 on the season.  There is a lot of hope among the fanbase that this will be the week that we see the Lions get back on track.  I am personally going to remain cautiously optimistic, as there are a number of ways that Detroit could bungle it up and lose this game.  That said, I am still excited about this team and their potential to be a playoff team this year.  As I've said before, you can't win them all.  The last two weeks have been rather disappointing for all of us, yet there is still hope that our young QB will break out of his recent funk and that the offense will come back to life.  This is the last game for the Lions before their bye week, so it would be very good if they could get a win and carry that momentum with them into the break.  With 7 weeks of the season under our belts, I will once again reveal to you who I believe the key players will be, on the Lion's offense and defense, for another Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats and a prediction at the end.  The Broncos are definitely not the best team we have faced, let alone beaten, and I such I certainly believe VICTORY can be ours, and I will tell you why and how as the WS W8E begins...after the jump.

THE SKINNY:
I'm sure everyone is aware that the Lions are on a 2 game losing streak.  It may have come as a surprise that the Lions lost to both San Francisco and Atlanta, since both were games that the Lions could have, and should have, won.  However, the kool-aid us Lion's fans were being served during the 5-0 start was particularly strong, and now that they have lost a couple of games, the cold, hard facts of reality are making themselves known.  The Lions are a young team that is still learning, and there are still pieces missing that Martin Mayhew and Co will need to acquire before they will be truly elite.  Matthew Stafford, our franchise QB, is also still developing.  He is young, and if you count the actual number of games he has been able to play in, you will realize that it could be said that he is really only in his 2nd season as a starting NFL QB.  Sam Bradford, the #1 pick of the 2009 NFL draft and starting QB for the St. Louis Rams, is currently struggling in HIS 2nd season as well, and if you compare their numbers it becomes evident that Stafford is pretty much right on track, if not slightly ahead of the curve.  Stafford has started in 20 games, while Sam Bradford has started 21.  Stafford has 8 wins and 12 losses, and Bradford has 7 wins and 14 losses.  Stafford has a 56.6% completion percentage, has thrown for 4714 yards, 35 TDs, 25 INTs, and has a 77.4 QB rating while being sacked 42 times.  Bradford has a 58.3% completion percentage, has thrown for 4689 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs, and has a QB rating of 75.4 while being sacked 55 times.  There is no reason to believe that Stafford will not continue to improve, but there could be cause for concern if he does not get some better protection soon.  The Lion's offense is explosive when Stafford is on his game and the offensive line blocks well.  When Stafford gets happy feet, and is worried about getting killed, we see games, like the last two with the Lions, where the defense is on the field too much and the offense spits and sputters.  The defense has been admirable, given the amount of time they have been on the field, but of course there is also areas there that can be improved upon.


The Broncos are 2-4 on the season, and they have already passed their week 6 bye.  For the first 4 weeks of the season, Kyle Orton was the starting QB in Denver.  Perhaps due to his inconsistency this year, or simply a bull headed ignorance from the fanbase, the fans were soon clamoring for then third string QB Tim Tebow to start.  Surprisingly, the coaching staff in Denver accommodated them, as Tebow took over for Orton in their week 5 game vs the Chargers, and was named the starter after the week 6 bye.  The Broncos have faced the Raiders, Bengals, Titans, Packers, Chargers, and Dolphins, and they have only beaten the Bengals and the Dolphins.  They had virtually no running game in week 1, but an injury to then starting RB Knowshon Moreno gave way to backup Willis McGahee.  McGahee managed to rush for over 100 yards in 3 out of the 5 games that he started after week 1, earning himself the starting role over Moreno, even after Moreno returned from injury.  McGahee's spark gave Denver a half way decent running game, but he was lost to injury last week against the Dolphins as he grabbed the facemask of defender Sean Smith, while attempting to stiff arm him, breaking his hand in the process (he was also fined $7500 for the action...double ouch!).


Without McGahee, the Broncos will look back to Knowshon Moreno to carry the load at RB.  In week 1, Moreno had just 22 yards rushing against the Raiders.  In his defense he was only given the ball 8 times, due to the fact that the Broncos were down 16-3 at the half, and they threw the ball all day long while they tried to catch up.  They eventually lost the game 20-23.  In week 2, against the Bengals, the Broncos only need to throw the ball 25 times.  McGahee rushed for 101 yards and a TD, and Eric Decker made the most of his 5 catches, gaining 113 yards and 2 TDs (52 long).  The Broncos won 24-22, but they allowed Andy Dalton to pass for 332 yards, 2 TDs, and no INTs, even though they led for a majority of the game.  They then lost in weeks 3, 4, and 5, to the Titans, Packers, and Chargers respectively, by a combined score of 61-95.  They were pounded by the Packers, but they were able to keep it close against the Titans.  Tim Tebow nearly won the game for them at the end of their week 5 game against the Chargers.  He was only 4 for 10 for 79 yards, but he threw a TD pass, no INTs, and he rushed for another 38 yards and a TD.  The defenses on both sides of the ball shut out the opposing offenses in the 3rd quarter, but while Tebow was attempting his late game heroics, his defense allowed 2 FGs in the 4th quarter and the Broncos came up short, 24-29.

Knowshon Moreno has the potential to be explosive. 

Last week, the Broncos won their 2nd game of the season, with Tim Tebow at the helm, in OT against Miami.  With Tebow as the starting QB, Denver adds a running threat to their offense.  Against the Dolphins, Denver put together 177 yards on the ground!  That was more than enough to make up for Tebow's inefficiencies as a passer, as he was 13 of 27 for 161 yards.  However, Tebow was able to throw 2 passing TDs in the 4th quarter, and he took the ball across the goal line for the 2 point conversion to send the game to overtime.  The Dolphins won the toss in the extra period.  They gained one first down, and moved the ball 20 yards before punting.  Denver went 3 and out on their possession, and punted back to Miami.  Miami looked like they were going to get it going again, gaining two first downs while driving from their own 15 yard line, all the way to their own 43 yard line.  On first and 10 from the Miami 43, Matt Moore was sacked for a loss of 8 yards, where he fumbled the ball and Denver recovered at the Miami 36.  Denver promptly ran the ball 3 times for 2 yards, called a timeout, and sent Matt Prater on for the 52 yard game winning FG.  Denver won 18-15, and their defense allowed just 267 total yards while sacking Matt Moore 4 times and forcing the game sealing fumble in OT.

Do you see why he is not a very accurate passer?

Clearly, at least to me, the Broncos are a completely different team with Tim Tebow at the helm instead of Kyle Orton.  They are much more of a running team with Tebow, and they are much less of a passing threat.  Tebow makes things happen by force of will and desire to win.  It may not be pretty, but he can pass the ball when necessary as well.  That said, I also feel that he will be prone to mistakes if the Lion's defense is stopping the run, forcing the Broncos to pass, and getting good pressure on him.  With all of that in mind, I want to take a minute to look at how these teams are ranked, offensively and defensively, before we examine this week's injury reports.

The Broncos are ranked 25th overall in total offense, with an average of 304.3 yards per game.  They are ranked 26th overall in passing, and 16th overall in rushing.  Defensively, the Broncos are ranked 21st overall in total defense, allowing an average of 366 yards per game to opposing offenses.  They are ranked 19th overall against the pass, and 18th overall against the run.  The Lions are ranked 13th overall in total offense, with an average of 353 yards per game.  They are ranked 11th overall in passing, and 27th overall in rushing.  Defensively, the Lions are ranked 10th overall in total defense, allowing an average of 334 yards per game to opposing offenses.  They are ranked 9th overall against the pass, and 28th overall against the run.  As was pointed out by my friend Pete in his post earlier, the Lion's defense (on average) is allowing more yards per game in every category than Denver's offense has gained on average.  On the other side of the ball, the Lion's offense is producing more passing yards than Denver's defense has allowed, on average.  Denver's defense is allowing more rushing and total yards than the Lion's offense has been producing, on average.  What this means is that it is likely that the Lions will produce near their average numbers when passing on offense, that they will likely be as successful as they have been while running the ball, if not slightly above average, and that it is also very likely that the Lions will gain their average in total yards, at a minimum.  Conversely, it is also likely that Denver will produce at least their average numbers in passing, rushing, and total yards, with potential to exceed those numbers.


Now let's take a quick look at the full injury reports from both teams, to see who will and will not be playing on Sunday:

Detroit Lions Week 8 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
RB	Jahvid Best	Concussion	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
WR	Rashied Davis	Foot	DNP	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
DT	Nick Fairley	Foot	DNP	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
DT	Sammie Hill	Ankle	DNP	DNP	LP	Questionable
G	Rob Sims	Illness	Not Listed	DNP	FP	Probable
T	Gosder Cherilus	Knee	DNP	LP	LP	Probable
S	Vincent Fuller	Elbow	LP	LP	LP	Doubtful
CB	Chris Houston	Back	DNP	LP	FP	Probable
QB	Matthew Stafford	Ankle	LP	LP	FP	Questionable
DE	Willie Young	Calf	LP	LP	FP	Probable
DE	Kyle Vanden Bosch	Not Injury Related	DNP	Not Listed	Not Listed	Not Listed

Denver Broncos Week 8 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
S	Brian Dawkins	Illness	Not Listed	DNP	LP	Probable
DE	Elvis Dumervil	Ankle	DNP	DNP	LP	Questionable
RB	Willis McGahee	Hand	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
DT	Marcus Thomas	Knee	Not Listed	LP	LP	Questionable
TE	Julius Thomas	Ankle	FP	FP	FP	Probable

I have decided that I will only include these reports for your informational purposes only.  I think that advantages and disadvantages, based on injuries, only really effects teams with very poor depth.  As such, I think it is pointless to draw any conclusions or make any predictions based on this information.  However, I will comment and let you see my opinions on the matter still.  Not having Jahvid Best is never good, but the 5+ yards per carry produced by Morris and Williams last week should be good enough most of the time.  Teams are not going to respect our running game, no matter what we do, because they know that the true explosiveness of our offense in within the passing game.  It would take the Lions getting an Adrian Peterson type of running back to change this, but then the Lions offense would not be same.  As it stands, the offense is built to pass the ball.  The running game is secondary to that, and is only used in an attempt to keep defenses honest.


No Rashied Davis hurts us a bit on special teams.  Last week my friend Shane and I commented about how Ballard needs to force the kick returner to the outside, rather than giving him room to cut back inside.  This is something that Rashied Davis does very well, and something that is missed when he is not out there.  Our special teams coverage as a whole hasn't been spectacular to begin with, particularly since the loss of Ekijiuba and Davis to injury.  No Nick Fairley should not make a big difference.  We have only had him for a couple of weeks anyway, and the D-line has been fine without him.  It would be nice if he could stay healthy and get some game time experience though.  Perhaps the coaching staff should have waited to debut him until after the bye week.  Sammie Lee Hill is also questionable.  It will weaken our rotation on the D-line if neither Fairley or Hill can play, but again I do not see it as detrimental to our cause.  Thankfully it looks like Matthew Stafford will play on Sunday.  Even though he is listed as questionable, he was a full participant in practice on Friday and he took the first team reps at QB.  It's not that Shawn Hill couldn't possibly come in and manage the game well enough for the Lions to be successful, but having Stafford in there makes a big difference, and that difference is positively noticeable.  The rest of those listed on the Lion's injury report should play, and I am not concerned with them.


As far as Denver is concerned, they will be without Willis McGahee.  Again, I doubt that will make any significant difference in their running game, as they still have Knowshon Moreno.  Moreno is a big back, and he has explosive ability.  The Lions would be smart to consider him just as much a threat as McGahee or any other RB they have faced.  Elvis Dumerville and Marcus Thomas are listed as questionable, but neither player has been doing much anyway.  It may slow down their pass rush a bit without them, but Von Miller is their best pass rusher (imagine that) and their linebackers have the majority of the team's sacks anyway.  Denver will surely dial up some blitzes against the Lions, so hopefully we will do well at picking up the linebackers and beating the blitzes with short passes over the middle.


With all of that in mind, let's talk about the Lion's ultimate keys to victory this week.  Clearly, with Tim Tebow at QB for the Broncos, the Lions are going to have to force Denver to pass the ball.  This means that ultimately they MUST stop the run.  Whether it be Tebow, Moreno, or Lance Ball running it, the Lions must contain them and keep them from being able to rack up yards and control the clock.  IF the Lions can force Tebow to pass, and also put some consistent pressure on him, then I think we will see multiple turnovers by Denver in this game.  Tebow is only passing for 45.9% completions, but he has rushed for 96 yards, and a 6 ypc average, in just 5 quarters of play, to the tune of a QB rating of 94.4.  The Lions must also protect Matthew Stafford and give him time to throw the ball.  Matthew Stafford MUST settle down and make accurate passes, like he did in the first few weeks of the season and during the preseason.  Lastly, the Lions WRs MUST do a better job of getting open and then CATCHING the ball when it comes their way!  These are the Lion's ultimate keys to victory, but they must also execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties(PLEASE!), and win the time of possession battle as secondary keys to victory.


I honestly believe that Denver has an uphill battle to fight this week.  They are going to have to stop Matthew Stafford from being able to set up and read the defense, they are going to have to rattle his cage, and they are going to have to be stout against the run while also containing our receiving threats if they hope to win this game.  The Lions are clearly beatable, but it is going to take a successful running game, clock control, and a Herculean effort on defense for Denver to beat Detroit.  If the Lions can successfully stop the run, keeping Denver from getting out to a fast start and forcing them to throw the ball, they will win this game.


KEY PLAYERS:
Offensively for the Lions, I believe the key player this week is going to be Matthew Stafford.  Surely Calvin Johnson, the rest of the WRs, the RBs, and especially the offensive line will play significant roles, but as long as they are doing at least an average job for their positions, everything will rest on the young shoulders of #9.  If Stafford can stay composed, shake the nerves and worries, and get back to the confident swagger we all saw early in the season, then I think the Lions will roll on Denver.  If he is dancing around like he's walking barefoot on a bed of hot coals, like he did several times last week and the week before, then we could be in for more of the sub to low 50% completions percentage and another long day offensively.  Play calling, or maybe even Stafford audibling out of plays at the line of scrimmage, has certainly played a role in our scoring woes lately, and the stupid penalties have also been a thorn in our sides, but if Stafford can just make his progressions quickly, get the ball out, and hit his receivers with some sense of accuracy, then the play calls will not look so pathetic and the penalties will not be as significant.  Matthew Stafford is ALWAYS the KEY player for the Lion's offense, and due to his head scratching performances of late I believe we have to look at him to be that key player in this game.

There it is...get back to form Matt.

Defensively, I believe the key player this week will be none other than Ndamukong Suh.  So far this season, Suh has shown a bad tendency to over pursue on running plays.  This tendency resulted in huge runs by both Frank Gore and Michael Turner, and those runs were right at Ndamukong Suh.  He is a very aggressive player, by nature, but he needs to channel that aggressiveness to include both pass rushing and run stopping abilities.  Suh was quoted as saying "We've learned from the last two losses and we've corrected our mistakes".  Well I certainly hope he has, and I hope we see him start getting rough with running backs, just like he already has with QBs.  I believe that Suh and the Detroit Lion's defense is going to be very tough this weekend.  If Suh can play both the run and the pass, then I don't think ANY runner for Denver will be going anywhere on Sunday, and I think Tim Tebow will be in for a long day as well.  Suh's presence alone is enough that it demands double teams on almost every play.  If he overpursues on running plays, in a misguided effort to satiate some guttural desire to kill every QB alive, then we will continue to see the Lions get beat by running backs, right up the middle.  Take up the double team!  Read the offense!  Stay home on running plays!  Plug the hole!  Shed the block!  Make the tackle!  Attack the QB on passing plays!  Fight through the double team and refuse to be blocked!  Tackle the QB, but DO NOT hit him with your hands (especially to the head or face)...lower your shoulders and run him over!  CELEBRATE, but keep it cool!  REPEAT! /Rant.  Suh is going to be the key player on defense, if he keeps his head and uses strength and technique together, instead of blind rage and brute strength alone.  I believe he understands this, and hopefully that is what we will see.  

Please sir, can I have some more?

PREDICTION:
Our key guys (Stafford, CJ, SUH and company) beat up on their key guys (Tebow, Moreno, Decker, Thomas, Miller, Bailey, Wilhite, Dawkins etc)...Lions WIN, 28-20.


I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 8 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!