The Weekend Spotlight - Week 5 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Edition, 2011

Calvin Johnson makes another spectacular TD grab...can you say SI cover?

Hello again ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the week 5, special Monday Night Football edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  I am your host, KDawg. This installment of your weekly WS has the Detroit Lions facing the Chicago Bears, at home in Detroit, MI, at Ford Field.   Coming off of their second consecutive come from behind victory versus the Cowboys, the Lions have now won their first 4 games of the season!  I challenge anyone out there to find a Lion's fan that is not absolutely pleased that the Lions will be playing under the national spotlight this week on MNF.  I know I am certainly PUMPED up for this game!  Overall, I am very happy with what the team has accomplished thus far, especially being undefeated going into week 5, but still I remain cautiously optimistic going forward.  The Lions have shown in the past two weeks that they DO NOT give up, and they have truly played with the heart of their namesake in the face of seemingly insurmountable adversity.  However, they have also shown that they are definitely NOT perfect and that they have a lot of areas in which they can improve.  Even so, they still have me believing that they WILL take their record to 5-0 this week. With 4 weeks of the season under our belts, I will once again reveal to you who I believe the key players will be, on the Lion's offense and defense, for another Lion VICTORY!   As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats and a prediction at the end.  I do not feel that the Chicago Bears are even close to as good as the Dallas Cowboys, and I believe that will be self evident in the number of times that we sack Jay Cutler, as well as the success that we should surely find offensively.  The Bears DO have a pretty solid defense though, and their offense CAN be explosive when Cutler has time to throw.   Regardless, VICTORY can still be ours, and I will tell you why and how as the WS W5E begins...after the jump.

THE SKINNY:
Can you believe it?  The Detroit Lions, who were a hapless team just 3 years ago, are going into week 5 of the REGULAR season with an undefeated record of 4-0!  After the heart pounding come from behind victory last week against Dallas, the Lions have extended their NFL leading win streak to 8 regular season games in a row!  Maybe even more impressive is the fact that 5 of those 8 wins came on the road, after previously losing a whopping 25 straight road games.  Surely, each and every one of us Lions fans is hoping that this team will stop allowing opponents to beat them handily in the first half of games, but no matter which way you turn it they still have put up Ws, and after some excellent adjustments by the coaching staff at halftime of the last two games, our offense has still proven to be unstoppable.  The defense in the first half of the last two games has really had me worried though, and even though they seemed to tighten up a great deal en route to the last two wins, I would still like to see them put it together for an entire 60 minutes.  They haven't been terrible in any of the games so far, but they definitely haven't been GREAT either, even though they did manage to sack Tony Romo once (Willie Young) and the 3 INTs (2 pick 6's) were the eventual story of the game.  

Willie Young makes the only sack of the day on Tony Romo.

The Bears are now 2-2 on the season.  After pounding the feathers off of the Falcons in week 1, the Bears have faced 3 teams with high powered offenses in a row.  They lost to the Saints in week 2 (13-30), the Packers in week 3 (17-27), and then they BARELY managed to stop Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in a shootout in week 4 (34-29).  Jay Cutler looked pretty sharp in week 1, as he threw the ball 32 times and completed 22 of those attempts, passing for 312 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT.  His primary weapon was Matt Forte, who rushed for 68 yards on 16 attempts and caught 5 passes for 90 yards and a TD.  Cutler managed to spread the ball around to 8 different receivers that day, and was sacked 4 times by the Falcons, neither of which should come as a surprise in a Mike Martz offense.  In week 2 it was a different story, as Cutler threw the ball 45 times and only completed 19 passes for 244 yards, and 1 TD.  Again, the primary weapon for Chicago was clearly Matt Forte, as he rushed for 49 yards on 10 carries and caught 10 passes for 117 yards.  Cutler spread the ball to 7 receivers in that game, and was sacked 6 times by the Saints.  In week 3 Cutler managed to throw the ball 37 times, completing 21 of those attempts for 302 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs.  Matt Forte was once again the main option for Chicago, catching 7 passes for 80 yards, but he was unable to get anywhere on the ground, rushing for just 2 yards on 9 carries.  Cutler spread the ball to 6 different receivers in that game, and was sacked 3 times by the Packers.   In week 4, against a much more porous Carolina defense, Cutler barely even had to throw the ball at all!  He was 9-17 for 102 yards and an INT, but the story of the game was once again Matt Forte, who rushed for 205 yards and a TD on 25 carries, while also catching 4 of Cutler's 9 completions for 23 yards.  Even though he only threw the ball 17 times, Cutler was still sacked once by Carolina.  In the end, the Bears needed a punt return TD by Devin Hester to win the game.


Is anyone noticing the very obvious trends here?  1) Jay Cutler has been sacked 14 times over the span of 4 games, and the last game he barely threw the ball at all, limiting sack opportunities.  If calculated over a full 16 games, Cutler is on track to be sacked 56 times this season!  2) Chicago will run the ball if they are finding success on the ground.  If that wasn't clear after week 4, then I don't know what clear is.  3) When the Bears can't run, or when they expect it to be tough to run, they will air it out, but most of the passes will be dink and dunk, west coast style throws, to Matt Forte.  4) Even though Matt Forte is their primary weapon, the Bears like to spread the ball around to multiple receivers in an attempt to beat teams underneath.  5) The Bears ONLY deep threat is Johnny Knox, and his longest reception of the year was a 40 yard catch against the Packers, which did not go for a TD.  Looking back to last season (from NFL.com):

Controversial calls were a big part of the two games these teams played last year ("the Calvin Johnson rule" became a household term). The Lions thought they deserved to win both, but it was the Bears playing in the NFC Championship Game. Chicago's Julius Peppers marred Matthew Stafford's 2010 season with a shoulder injury in Week 1.

In my opinion, and in that of most Lion's fans, the Bears would not have won either game against the Lions last season, had it not been for a few piss poor calls by the referees.  As I have said over and over already, this is a much different Lion's team than years past, and I believe Chicago is in for a very rough time on Monday night.

Remember us?  We're baaaaaack!

On offense, the Lions currently rank 11th in total yards per game, averaging 375.8 ypg.  They currently rank 7th in passing and a lowly 29th in rushing offense.  On defense, the Lions currently rank 11th overall in yards per game allowed, averaging 334.2 ypg against.  They currently rank 12th against the pass, and 20th against the run.  Like I said, the offense has been great (most of the time), but the defense has left a few things to be desired.  A couple of other fun stats that I want to point out, have to do with the offensive line.  The Lion's O-line currently ranks 5th LOWEST in the NFL for sacks allowed, with only 5, but the 20 QB hits they have allowed ranks them 15 in that category.  Since sacks allowed seem to be the stat of choice when ranking offensive lines (at least on NFL.com) , the Lion's O-line is currently ranked 5th BEST in the league.  Another interesting thing to note is that the Lions are also currently ranked 5th in the NFL power rankings.  Just the fact that I feel the Lions will get to Jay Cutler quite frequently on Monday night has me believing that the Lions will win this game, but add in the fact that I do not see them stopping our passing game and the feeling becomes even more solid.  With that, let's take a look at the team injury reports for the week, and see who will and will not be playing on MNF:

Detroit Lions Week 5 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	STATUS
S	Erik Coleman	Ankle	DNP	DNP
WR	Rashied Davis	Foot	DNP	DNP
LB	Justin Durant	Concussion	DNP	LP
T	Jason Fox	Foot	DNP	LP
S	Amari Spievey	Hamstring	DNP	LP
CB	Aaron Berry	Groin	LP	LP
S	Louis Delmas	Abdomen	LP	LP
DT	Nick Fairley	Foot	LP	LP
DE	Lawrence Jackson	Hamstring	LP	LP
WR	Calvin Johnson	Ankle	FP	FP
LB	DeAndre Levy	Knee	FP	FP
WR	Maurice Stovall	Hand	FP	FP
CB	Eric Wright	Groin	FP	FP

Chicago Bears Week 5 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY	STATUS
WR	Earl Bennett	Chest	DNP	DNP
T	Gabe Carimi	Knee	DNP	DNP
S	Chris Harris	Hamstring	LP	LP
TE	Matt Spaeth	Calf	LP	LP
G/C	Chris Spencer	Hand	LP	LP
CB	Charles Tillman	Hip	LP	LP
DE	Corey Wootton	Hand	Not Listed	DNP

Early reports have suggested that Lion's rookie Nick Fairley will make his season debut this week vs the Bears.  However, as the injury report shows, he was limited in both practices so far.  I believe he will be a game time decision, and he may not play until week 6 or later.  Early reports have also stated that Erik Coleman will be out for "awhile", and that sentiment was backed up by Jim Schwartz.  As such, I do not expect to see Coleman on Monday.  Rashied Davis has not practiced yet this week either, but he contends that he wants to play this week against his former team, and I think he has a good chance to do just that, on special teams.  Justin Durant was cleared to practice as of today, and I would bet he will play on Monday.  I believe the rest of the limited Lion players, with the exception of maybe Jason Fox, have all been held back for precautionary reasons.  I expect them to play.  As for the Bears, it is entirely possible that Earl Bennett, Gabe Carimi, and Corey Wootton will be out this week, but the rest should play.  Carimi and Wootton would be much more significant losses for the Bears than Earl Bennett, seemingly, but Frank Omiyale has been a solid backup in the past, and Wootton is just a backup rotational player that spells both Idonije and Peppers periodically.  That said, it would weaken their D-line rotation if in fact Wootton can't go on Monday.

With all of that in mind, I still do not see any of the reported injuries as being significant enough to alter the outcome of this game.  I believe that the ultimate keys to victory for the Lions this week will be protecting Matthew Stafford (as always), getting to Jay Cutler early, often, and consistently, and stopping Matt Forte and the west coast offense from beating us with the short passing game.  The secondary keys to victory for the Lions are the same as always; execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties, and control the time of possession.  For the Bears, their keys to victory would be to keep Jay Cutler on his feet, establish a solid running game with Forte, stop our pass rush from disrupting their offense, and exploiting the weaknesses in our secondary.  My hope is to see the Lions jump on the Bears early, and to see them run away with this game.  If the pass rush has success, and Stafford has time to throw, I can't see the Lions losing this one.

KEY PLAYERS:
Outside of Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus/Corey Hilliard, and their matchups against Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije, I believe that the key player on offense for the Lions this week will be Jahvid Best.  The Bears, whose defense ranks 29th against the pass, have been very susceptible to deep passes by speedy receivers, and also have given up a lot of catches and yards to TEs, so I also expect Titus Young, Nate Burleson, and Brandon Pettigrew to have good games, not to mention Calvin Johnson getting his.  However, the Bears defense has also allowed an average of 124.25 yards per game to opposing running backs, ranking them 23rd against the run.  If the Lions ever wanted to establish the run this season, this may be the best case scenario for them to do so.  If Jahvid Best can get it going on the ground, then there is no way Chicago will win this football game, as their pass defense is swiss cheese and our passing offense is like a bullet from a .44 magnum.  I look for Best to rush for over 100 yards for the first time this season, against Chicago, and he might even pitch in quite a few yards in the passing game if he is properly utilized.

Jahvid Best breaks a big run against Dallas last weekend.

Defensively, I see DeAndre Levy being the key player this week.  While Stephen Tulloch has been great over the past two games, I believe it will be Levy who makes or breaks us against Matt Forte this week.  If Levy is missing tackles and playing out of position, then we will be in big trouble, but if he is on his game, making solid tackles and playing in position, then Forte will not be running much against the Lions.  The Bears will of course resort to the passing game, and they will try to get Forte the ball that way, but that is when Houston, Wright, Spievey, and Delmas will come into play.  I think that Levy holds the key to whether or not the Bears will be a one dimensional offense this week, and as long as he is doing his job well it will give our defensive line a chance to take Cutler out and make the Bears a zero dimensional offense, especially considering that only the Rams have a worse offensive line than Chicago when it comes to sacks allowed.  I should add that Justin Durant, or Bobby Carpenter, and Stephen Tulloch will also play a big role to this effect, but Levy needs to silence the critics and have a big game.  As long as the linebackers can do their part in stopping the Bears from establishing a run game, then I see a LOT of 3 and outs coming for Chicago on Monday, much to the benefit of the Lions and their offense.

DeAndre Levy makes a tackle against Felix Jones.

Basically as a recap of what I have stated, obviously the key players for the Bears on offense are going to be Jay Cutler and Matt Forte.  Johnny Knox could be a problem if he is not contained, as could Devin Hester on both offense and special teams.  The focus for the Lion's defense should be Matt Forte though, as he has proven to be their main threat over the first 4 weeks.  Stop Forte and you beat the Bears.  If Forte gets going, then this could be a close game and another shootout.

Jay Cutler is a good QB when he has time to throw.

Defensively for Chicago, their defensive ends (Julius Peppers(2 sacks) and Israel Idonije(one sack)) are the primary key players.  If Backus and Cherilus/Hillard can not contain these guys, then Matthew Stafford could be in for a beating.  Henry Melton(3 sacks) has also been a force on the interior of Chicago's D-line this season, so Peterman and Raiola are going to have their work cut out too.  On a defense that is arguably stacked at linebacker, with Urlacher, Briggs, and Roach, running the ball may prove to be a secondary thought.  However, if Jahvid Best and the offense CAN put those guys on their heels, it will make a world of difference.  The Bears are weakest at cornerback, with Tillman being banged up and Jennings being mainly a warm body, so I look for Detroit to expose their weaknesses there as well.  That said, when on their game the Chicago Bears prove to be a formidable team defensively.

Remember this?

PREDICTION:
My prediction is that the Lions will make the Bears pay for last year's losses.  Lions WIN 37-20.

I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 5 special MNF edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football MONDAY ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!

This time it's OUR turn!