The Weekend Spotlight - Week 14 Edition - 2011

Even though the Lions lost to the Saints, rookie DT Nick Fairley played very well.  Here he celebrates his 1st NFL sack.

Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen, to the week 14 edition of YOUR Weekend Spotlight!  I am your host, KDawg.  This installment of your weekly WS will feature tomorrow's inter-division rivalry matchup between OUR Detroit Lions, and the lowly Minnesota Vikings, at home in Detroit, MI, at Ford Field.  Last week's loss to the New Orleans Saints has left the Lions with a record of 7-5.  The Vikings are 2-10 on the season, and have very little to speak of in a positive manner.  I misspoke myself last week, by stating that there was just 4 games left of the regular season when in fact there was 5.  NOW there are just 4 games left in the regular season, and this is a MUST win game for the Lions.   I will once again reveal to you who my picks for key players are, on the Lion's offense and defense, for another Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats and a prediction at the end.  The Vikings are definitely NOT the best team we have faced, plus we have already handed them one of their 10 losses on the season.  As such, I believe VICTORY will be ours, and I will tell you why and how as the WS W14E begins...after the jump.

THE SKINNY:
All trash talking and retarded super ego morons aside, the background of this game is rather simple.  The Lions hate the Vikings, and the feeling is mutual from their end.  I personally can not believe that Jared Allen has anything negative to say about anybody this year, considering his team's 2-10 record and the fact that he is about the only reason they even have 2 wins, but to each his own.  I'm just glad that Gunther Cunningham did the talking on behalf of the Lion's players, in their defense, even if that defense made about as much sense as a Rocky Balboa state of the union address.  Enough about that.  Let's recap and expand on TCLion's "Behind the Numbers" post.


As stated by TCLion, in his "Behind the Numbers" post, the Vikings currently rank 26th overall in passing offense (tied with the Colts) and 6th overall in rushing offense.  These rankings combine to give the Vikings the #17 overall offense in the NFL, in terms of total yards.  Clearly the Vikings are a run first offense, and a major part of the reason for their success has been star running back Adrian Peterson.  Adrian Peterson has been banged up recently, dealing with a high ankle sprain that has sidelined him for the last 2 games.  He is listed as questionable, and has been deemed a "game time decision" by the Minnesota coaching staff.  Peterson himself has stated that he aims to play against the Lions on Sunday, which leaves me unsure of how effective he may or may not be.  That said, I believe if he plays he will be the focal point of the Viking's attack, and that it is also likely we will see him share carries with Toby Gerhart.  If his injury is anything like Kevin Smith's, then he could very easily be forced to leave the game if the injury becomes aggravated.  Gerhart has done a decent job in place of Peterson, rushing for 135 yards and a TD and adding 10 catches for 61 yards receiving over the past 2 games, but he is no Adrian Peterson.  However, if Peterson is unable to go, Gerhart will be the guy to stop for the Lion's defense this week.


Sticking with the "Behind the Numbers" theme, the Vikings rank 26th overall in passing defense and 12th overall against the run.  These rankings combine to give the Vikings the #19 overall defense in the NFL, in terms of total yards allowed.  Again, the Vikings enjoy as much success as they do on defense due to the play of one man, Jared Allen.  Allen is healthy and as loud as ever, and he has 14.5 sacks, 51 tackles, 1 INT, and 4 fumble recoveries.  Chad Greenway has 110 tackles, but to me it is obvious that Jared Allen is the heart and soul of the Vikings defense.  If we stop him, we should be able to have a field day against the Minnesota defense.


The Lions rank 5th overall in passing offense, and 23rd overall in rushing offense, for a combined rank of 8th overall in the NFL on offense (based on total yards).  Defensively, The Lions rank 11th overall against the pass, and 22nd overall against the run, for a combined rank of 13th overall in the NFL on defense (based on total yards allowed).  As stated by TCLion, the Lions matchup very favorably with the rest of Minnesota's opponents this season.  They should win this game if they don't beat themselves.  That said, over the last 7 games the Lions HAVE beaten themselves 5 times.  There has been an obvious lack of discipline, and the maturity level of their young players has really started to show.  Stupid penalties, at the worst possible times, have been the result, much to the detriment of the team's overall record and chances of making the playoffs for the first time in 12 years (1999).  The Lions need to play a well disciplined game, win the turnover battle, and execute consistently on both sides of the ball against Minnesota.  If they do these things, they could absolutely dismantle the Vikings this week, thereby sending Jared Allen running home with his tail tucked between his legs.  Getting him to shut his big mouth would take an act of God, so barring divine intervention I seriously doubt anything the Lions do will make that happen.

My ego is THIS big!

The bottom line here is pretty straight forward.  There are only 2 players on the Viking's squad that are putting up pro bowl quality numbers this season.  Those two players are Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen.  If the Lions stop both, they will win the game with ease, most likely in a dominant fashion.  That said, I don't see any way that Minnesota can win this game, as long as the Lions are executing on offense.  That means that in all reality, the most important person the Lions have to deal with IS Jared Allen.  If they can stop Allen, give Stafford time to set up and throw, by not allowing the rest of the Vikings to run free, and if they can generate ANY kind of consistent running game on offense, then they will NOT lose, even if Adrian Peterson plays and rushes for 150 yards and 3 TDs.  If Jeff Backus allows Jared Allen to run wild, then we could see Matthew Stafford do his best Joey Harrington impression again.  If that happens, you can bet that the frustration level of the rest of the team will rear it's ugly head again, and the maturity level of the young Lions could prevail in another "see how many times it takes us to lose by shooting ourselves in the foot over and over again" session.  

#28 Adrian Peterson is the best the Vikings have to offer on offense. 

Here are this week's full injury reports for both teams:

Detroit Lions Week 14 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
S	Louis Delmas	Knee	DNP	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
LB	Justin Durant	Hamstring	LP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
DT	Nick Fairley	Foot	DNP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
CB	Chris Houston	Knee	DNP	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
DE	Lawrence Jackson	Thight	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
DE	Kyle Vanden Bosch	Not Injury Related	DNP	Not Listed	Not Listed	Not Listed
G	Rob Sims	Shoulder	LP	LP	LP	Probable
RB	Kevin Smith	Ankle	DNP	DNP	LP	Questionable
DE	Willie Young	Ankle	LP	LP	LP	Probable

Minnesota Vikings Week 14 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
CB	Chris Cook	Not Injury Related	Out	Out	Out	Out
G	Steve Hutchinson	Illness	DNP	LP	FP	Probable
RB	Adrian Peterson	Ankle	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
QB	Christian Ponder	Hip	DNP	DNP	LP	Questionable
DE	Brian Robison	Concussion	DNP	LP	FP	Probable
CB	Asher Allen	Shoulder	LP	LP	FP	Probable
LB	Chad Greenway	Elbow	LP	LP	FP	Probable
DE	Everson Griffen	Quadricep	LP	LP	FP	Probable
TE	Visanthe Shiancoe	Hand	LP	LP	FP	Probable
LP	E.J. Henderson	Shoulder	FP	FP	FP	Probable
G	Anthony Herrera	Knee	FP	FP	FP	Probable
WR	Percy Harvin	Finger	Not Listed	LP	LP	Probable

Normally I would just post these for informational purposes, but I think a couple of things here are worth noting.  First of all, as we all know, Ndamukong Suh is still suspended.  That fact makes an even bigger impact, due to the fact that Nick Fairley did not practice all week, is listed as questionable, and is not likely to play at all in my opinion.  The Lions did go out and sign Jovan Haye for depth, which makes me feel a little bit better knowing that there will at least be another veteran presence in the middle of the D-line, in the event that Fairley can not go.  It is a good thing we are as deep on the D-line as we have seemed to be all season, because Lawrence Jackson is also out, leaving Willie Young and Keyunta Dawson as our options at DE if KVB or Avril gets injured.  It's not that Young is no good, but I really do not want to see Keyunta Dawson for more than a few plays at a time.  Without Suh and Fairley, we have Corey Williams, Sammie Lee Hill, Andre Fluellen, and Jovan Haye at DT.  Williams has been a rock for the Lions all season long, and SLH has done a pretty good job in the rotation as well, but Fluellen has been pretty much invisible, and I have no idea how well Jovan Haye will play, considering the fact that he did nothing in the 3 games he played for Tennessee at the beginning of the season, and has done nothing since.


The injuries to the Lion's D-line are just the tip of the iceberg.  Starting safety Louis Delmas and starting cornerback Chris Houston are both listed as doubtful, and starting linebacker Justin Durant is listed as questionable.  None of them practiced this week except Durant, who had a limited practice on Wednesday and has not practiced since.  If none of them play, then the Lions will be forced to play with Chris Harris, Alphonso Smith, and Bobby Carpenter, respectively, with John Wendling and Ricardo Silva as the backup safeties, Doug Hogue as the only remaining backup at linebacker, and Aaron Berry and Don Carey as the backups at cornerback.  It is already likely that we will see a lot of Aaron Berry, as the Lion's coaching staff seems to think he is just as good as, if not better than, Alphonso Smith.  Anyone who has read my posts this season should know that I am not overly high on Aaron Berry.  Regardless, the Lion's defensive depth is pretty well depleted, so any regular starter that can play for Minnesota (namely Ponder and Peterson) will be to their advantage.  Needless to say, the Lions can not afford any more injuries, so I hope nothing else serious happens to them in this game.  Luckily for us Lion's fans, most of the offense is 100% healthy.  Kevin Smith is questionable, and has been limited all week in practice, but whether or not he plays should not make or break the Lions on offense against the Vikings.  His presence would certainly help though, if in fact he can play.


With the uncertainty of who will and will not play for both teams, talking about ultimate keys to victory here would be redundant and vanilla.  Regardless, stop the run, sack the QB, execute on offense, protect Stafford and the football on offense, limit the penalties, and control the clock are the obvious ones.  Contain Jared Allen.  That is what I believe is the ULTIMATE key to victory for the Lions this week.  Rather than expounding with incessant banter, over analyzing statements of the obvious, I'm just going to move on to my picks for key players on the Lion's offense and defense this week.


KEY PLAYERS:
Offensively I believe the key player this week is going to be Jeff Backus once again.  Since I believe the ultimate key to beating Minnesota will be containing Jared Allen, Jeff Backus is the perfect player to put in the spotlight.  I named Backus as the key player the last time the Lions faced Minnesota, and Allen was able to sack Stafford 3 times (all in the first half I believe), forcing a fumble on one in the 2nd quarter.  Backus regrouped and did a great job in the second half, helping the Lions overcome a 0-20 half time deficit to win in OT.  Brian Robison also had 2 sacks on the day, so BOTH Lion OTs will need to play a good game in order to keep Stafford safe and upright.  Even though Stafford was sacked 5 times in the previous matchup against Minnesota, he still managed to complete 32 of 46 passes for 378 yards and 2 TDs, with NO INTS.  I called it a win for Backus in the first game, and if Stafford throws for 300+ and 2+ TDs in this game, I will call it a win again, because the Lions will add a W to their record.

Ladies and Gentlemen, introducing Mr. Durability himself, our version of a dancing bear!

Defensively, my pick for key player this week is going to be Stephen Tulloch.  If Joe Webb starts at QB, then the Vikings will be quite limited in their passing game on offense.  Stopping the run will become the most important thing for the Lions defense in this case.  Stephen Tulloch is the man in the middle who will be tasked with exactly that.  If he plays well and makes solid tackles in the middle, especially if Peterson does not play and Gerhart has to do all of the running for Minnesota, then the Vikings will struggle mightily to put points on the board at all.  Gerhart is a between the tackles runner.  He is not one who readily bounces to the outside.  Strong play from Tulloch in the middle of our defense will be key.  If Peterson plays, then the OLBs will play more of a role in stopping the run, but Tulloch will still play the most important role.  The Lions have been gouged up the middle by running backs all season long, and Stephen Tulloch can be the difference maker when it comes to eliminating that from happening in this game.  If Peterson can not play, or is limited, then Tulloch's performance could be the difference between multiple 3 and outs by the Viking offense, and Toby Gerhart looking like a pro bowl running back.  If Tully plays well, the Lion's offense will see a lot more chances to score, which can only benefit their chances to win the game.

This is what I want to see tomorrow!

PREDICTION:
Jared Allen gets 2-3 sacks, but it is not enough to stop the Lions.  The Lions win in dominating fashion 41-14.


I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 14 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!