Breaking down the Chicago Bears

This can never be allowed to happen again.

You’ll have to forgive Chicago Bears Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz should you happen to catch him gazing with naked desire across the field to the Lions sideline on Monday night. Over there will be everything Martz ever desired, and came so very close to having. In 2007, when Martz was offensive coordinator for the Lions, he used all the powers of persuasion he possessed to convince the Lions to draft WR Calvin Johnson out of Georgia Tech in the 07 draft. If you enjoy Calvin Johnson in the Silver and Blue today, you have Martz to thank for it.

   In many ways, this year for Martz may mark the most handcuffed he has even been in terms of offensive talent to work with. With mercurial QB Jay Cutler at the helm, Martz never knows from week to week what type of QB play he will get. One week, Cutler will look like the second coming of Dan Marino, and the next he will look like Joey Harrington with a fear and paranoia complex. A group of extremely under-achieving receivers gives him headaches, Roy Williams, Devin Hester, and Johnny Knox all take turns with medical cases of “the dropsies”, and under-talented Dane Sanzenbacher provides the steadiest hands at times sheerly by default. The lone consistently bright spot on the Bears offense is Running Back Matt Forte, who provides a Marshall Faulk-like presence in the backfield and seems to get better every year.

This is the man responsible

   Offensively, the Bears offense revolves around Forte. Forte provides both an elite running threat (see last week’s game vs. Panthers, 205 yards rushing), and elite receiving threat out of the backfield, that draws every defensive coordinator’s instant respect. This threat is greatly mollified by the Bears shaky pass protection and below average receivers. If the Lions can stop Forte, which will be one heck of a challenge given their sub-standard run defense thus far, they could cruise to an easy victory. In their only good team category, the Bears rushing offense ranks in the top half of the league, while the Lions rushing defense ranks in the bottom half. Look for the Bears to try and establish the running game early and often, try to set the table for their speed receivers, and try a few vertical pass plays down the field to the speedy Hester and Knox. Expect Martz to do, well, anything. There is a reason they call him the “mad scientist” after all, and his game plan could include anything.

This is the end result of that one play

   Defensively, you have to wonder what has happened to the Bears? Last year the team overcame Defensive Tackle Tommie Harris’s sudden and inexplicable decline to field a top 10 defense and win the division. This year though, it seems offensive coordinators have wised up to the fact that Harris is no longer plugging the middle for the Bears, and the team ranks in the bottom 10 in the league for both rush and pass defense. As the Bears have had to commit more men to “the Box” to help in rush defense, it has opened up favorable matchups for wide receivers on the outside. Although Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs continue to perform at a Pro-Bowl level, they are often put in bad positions by a turnover prone offense, as well as getting cleaned out by offensive linemen coming to the second level of the defense at a higher percentage than last year. Defensively look for the Bears to try and stay honest to the Lions passing game, and force the Lions to prove they can run the ball against their base defense before making any adjustments. If the Bears can check the Lions ground game to minimal gains, it will allow them to play their dominating defense of last year for the first time this season.

   When the Lions have the ball on offense, look for them to immediately begin testing the Bears run defense. The Lions would love to get their running game jump-started, and they may not have a more prime opportunity than against the Bears.  Establishing the game on the ground would have significant side-benefits for the Lions too, keeping All-Pro QB Killer Julius Peppers from pinning his ears back and going green light after Stafford on every down. When passing, anything goes for the Lions versus the Bears. Although the Bears have talent in their secondary, there isn’t a single one-on-one matchup that the Lions can’t win personnel wise against this group.

   Defensively for the Lions, I can only hope that last week served as a wake-up call for this unit. The Lions inability to get a stop on the Cowboys offense in the first half had more to do with their game woes than anything that happened for the Lions offense. The front four philosophy of “play the run on the way to the QB” clearly was not working last week, as the Lions were neither significantly stopping the run, nor getting pressure on Cowboys QB Tony Romo for much of the game. This week, the Lions MUST respect Forte and play smart defensively.

   On special teams, Devin Hester served notice last week that he still needs to be respected as an elite return man, returning a punt for an NFL record 11^th return touchdown. Rookie punter Ryan Donahue should watch some 2007 Lions game tapes and do his best to emulate Rod Marinelli’s “Kick it into Lake Michigan” strategy. Marinelli didn’t do much right, but playing keep-away from Hester was one of his shining moments of brilliance. Jason Hanson’s fading leg strength could give Hester some opportunities in the return game.

   The Monday Night effect – This will be the first Monday night game held in Detroit since, well, let’s just say a very, very, very long time and leave it at that. (Fine, October 8^th, 2001. A 35-0 blowout by the Rams in the Silverdome. Happy?) Let’s hope that the fans attending the game will be smart, give the Lions a home field advantage on defense AND offense, and the Lions should come out of this with a W. The Lions are 3-1 against the Bears on Monday night football, with the last meeting being a Lions win in 1995 at the Silverdome on December 4^th. Since 1990, the Lions own a 4-6 record on MNF.

This will be the latest the Lions have been undefeated since Bobby Layne led the 1956 squad to a 6-0 start 55 years ago.

Final score prediction – We all knew the magic carpet ride was going to end at some point, but not this week baby!!! The Lions crush the Bears this week. Lions 42 – Bears 20.