The Weekend Spotlight - Week 12 Edition, 2011

The Lion's Captains walk onto the field vs the Carolina Panthers last Sunday.

Welcome back ladies and gentlemen, to the week 12 edition of your Weekend Spotlight!  I am your host, KDawg.  This installment of your weekly WS will feature the one and only Detroit Lions, versus the Green Bay Packers, at home in Detroit, MI, at Ford Field, on TURKEY DAY!  The Lions are now 7-3 on the season, and they are about to face arguably the toughest matchup on their entire schedule.  As we all know, the Green Bay Packers are on fire, with an undefeated 10-0 record.  With just 6 games left in the regular season, I will once again reveal to you who my picks for key players are, on the Lion's offense and defense, for another Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats and a prediction at the end.  The Packers are definitely the best overall team we have faced, but I still believe VICTORY can be ours, and I will tell you why and how as the WS W12E begins...after the jump.

THE SKINNY:
First of all I just want to say that I was WAY off on the quick score prediction I gave last week.  42-10?  Wow.  The Lions pulled off yet another HUGE come from behind victory, as they were down 24-7 at the half, and they stormed back to the tune of 42-11 in the second half.  If I had said 42-10 in the 2nd half, I'm quite positive that everyone would have been questioning my sanity.  I know I was questioning it myself during the first half last Sunday.  All of my worst fears were playing out right before my eyes.  Stafford looked terrible, the running game was relatively non-existant, and the Lions couldn't get anything positive going on offense, while the defense flopped around like a fish out of water.  It was so ugly that I am sure it tested the resolve of just about every Lion's fan on the planet.  Yet, those of us who had the perseverance to hang in there and keep watching were well rewarded, as the Lions put together a gem of a second half once again, and came away with the victory.

As previously stated, the Lions are now 7-3 on the season.  This is a very pleasant fact for Lion's fans everywhere, even though most of us who are reasonable know very well that they have a lot of room to improve.  As showcased in the game last Sunday, when Matthew Stafford is on his game, the Lion's offense is very dynamic and explosive.  Add in the 200+ yards from scrimmage that Kevin Smith contributed, and suddenly the Lions have an offense that is even more difficult to prepare for, and subsequently stop.  The Lions are currently ranked 11th in the NFL in total offense, averaging 373.5 yards per game, 5.7 yards per play, and a +9 turnover ratio (which makes them 5th best in the NFL in that category, behind SF (+17), Green Bay (+12), Chicago (+11), and Houston (+11)).  The Lions currently rank 8th in the NFL in passing, with 272.4 ypg (7.2 ypa avg), and 22nd in rushing with 101.1 ypg (4.3 avg ypc).  Defensively, the Lions currently rank 9th in the NFL in total defense, with an average of 327.5 ypg allowed (5 yards per play average allowed).  They currently rank 5th against the pass, allowing an average of 192.8 ypg passing against (6.0 yards per pass average allowed), and they have allowed 10 TDs while grabbing 15 INTs and 27 sacks (which ranks them tied for 3rd best in TDs allowed, tied for 2nd best in INTs, and tied for 8th best in sacks).

The Packers, as previously stated, are an undefeated 10-0 on the season.  They currently rank 4th in the NFL in total yards of offense (1 spot better than Carolina) with an average of 406.5 ypg.  They currently rank 3rd in the NFL in passing offense, with an average of 304.9 ypg and a 9.7 yards per pass average.  They have 31 passing TDs to just 5 INTS, and they have allowed 25 sacks.  They also rank 21st in the NFL in rushing offense (1 spot better than the Lions), with an average of 101.6 ypg and a 3.9 ypc avg.  Defensively, the Packers currently rank a lowly, head scratching, 30th overall in the NFL in total defense, allowing an average of 391.8 ypg against (an average of 6.2 yards per play allowed).  They currently rank 31st in the NFL against the pass, allowing an average of 289.3 ypg passing against (7.8 yards per pass average allowed), and they have allowed 18 TDs, grabbed 19 INTs, and gathered 24 sacks (ranking them tied for 2nd worst in TDs allowed, the best in the NFL in INTs, and 15th in the NFL in sacks).  This brings up the question, and a very valid one at that, of how in the hell have the Packers won 10 games and lost none?  The answer?  They have the best QB in the NFL, and their offense is effectively unstoppable.  They beat teams because their offense is very good at capitalizing on their opponents mistakes, effectively meaning that their opponents beat themselves.

The Lions can win this game, but it is going to take a very well disciplined game.  They must be as close to mistake free as possible, and they absolutely MUST protect the football.  They can not afford to turn the ball over, and they certainly can not afford to come out slow and give the Packers a 17+ point lead at halftime.  If they do, they will lose, just like every other team that has faced Green Bay thus far...plain and simple.  This game has all of the makings of a shootout, and it is going to come down to which team makes the least mistakes.  If the Lions do not turn the ball over, and they treat every offensive possession as if it were their last, by putting points on the board and being the more efficient team, they will not only be IN the game, but they will also stand a very good chance at winning it.

At risk of stating the obvious, Aaron Rodgers has been absolutely dominant this season.  Believe it or not, however, Rodgers has been out passed in 6 of the Packer's 10 games!  Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Phillip Rivers, and most recently Josh Freeman (in that order) have ALL out passed Aaron Rodgers in games that their teams LOST!  The Packer's running backs have been the game leaders just 4 times this season as well.  How are they 10-0??  Why hasn't anyone beaten them yet, when their defense is so terrible and their QB has been out passed 60% of the time?  Because Aaron Rodgers is the most efficient QB in the NFL, hands down.  He has a passer rating of 130.7, and the closest QB behind him is Drew Brees with a 101.3 rating.  Rodgers leads the NFL with a 72.9% completion percentage, and the closest QB behind him there is also Drew Brees, with a 70.9% completion percentage.  Rodgers has thrown an NFL leading 31 TDs to just 4 INTs this season (which ties him for best in the NFL with Alex Smith, among active starting QBs, in that category), and he is a threat EVERY time he touches the football.  If he can't beat you throwing, he can also beat you with his legs as a dual threat QB.  When the Packers get a lead, there is no team in the NFL that is better at maintaining it.  They thrive on good field position, forcing turnovers, and excellent special teams coverage.  Their +12 turnover ratio is 2nd (only to SF's +17) best in the NFL.  They beat teams by making them pay for their mistakes, and they are the best in the business at it, which is why they are undefeated.

The Champ...he's not Brett Favre, he's better than Brett Favre.

All is not lost.  The Packer's are not unbeatable, contrary to popular belief.  I believe the Lions may be the team that is best suited to knock the Packers from the ranks of the unbeaten.  They are a team built in the very same mold as the Packers.  Both teams are built to pass and get after the opposing QB.  The Packers have an advantage on defense however, despite what the statistics may suggest.  The Packers have a secondary, led by Charles Woodson, that is most definitely superior to the much improved Lion's secondary.  In all reality, again despite what many Lion's fans may think, the defensive lines of these 2 teams are pretty much equal.  We may have a couple of young players that are seen as more dominant, but in this case the stats help tell the whole story.  The Packers have gathered 24 sacks, and the Lions have just 27...so it's pretty much a wash there, even though the Lions are slightly better at pass rushing.  However, Green Bay is much more solid against the run than the Lions are, so overall I say both units are relatively equal.  The bottom line is simple:  The Lions must play a very smart, well disciplined, mistake free game, and the offense must execute at a very high level in order to win this game.

Our own Michigan product, Charles Woodson is one of the best ever at what he does.

That said, let's take a quick look at this week's injury reports:

Detroit Lions Week 12 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	STATUS
RB	Jahvid Best	Concussion	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
P	Ryan Donahue	Quad (Right)	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
DE	Lawrence Jackson	Thigh	DNP	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
WR	Rashied Davis	Hamstring	Not Listed	LP	LP	Probable
S	Chris Harris	Ankle	LP	LP	LP	Probable
WR	Calvin Johnson	Ankle	FP	DNP	LP	Probable
LB	DeAndre Levy	Elbow	LP	LP	LP	Probable
S	Amari Spievey	Toe	LP	LP	LP	Probable
WR	Maurice Stovall	Shoulder	LP	LP	LP	Probable
DT	Corey Williams	Calf	LP	DNP	LP	Questionable
DE	Willie Young	Ankle	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
RB	Maurice Morris	Ankle	FP	FP	FP	Probable
QB	Matthew Stafford	Finger (Right)	FP	FP	FP	Probable

*The Lions held a walkthrough on Monday and Wednesday; practice designations are estimations.

Green Bay Packers Week 12 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	STATUS
T	Chad Clifton	Hamstring	Out	Out	Out	Out
LB	Desmond Bishop	Calf	Not Listed	LP	LP	Probable
WR	Greg Jennings	Knee	DNP	LP	FP	Probable
LB	Clay Matthews	Ankle	LP		FP	Probable
T	Marshall Newhouse	Knee	DNP	LP	FP	Probable
G	Josh Sitton	Knee	LP	LP	LP	Probable
RB	James Starks	Knee/Ankle	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
LB	Frank Zombo	Hamstring	LP	FP	FP	Probable

Other than the old news that Jahvid Best and Ryan Donahue are still out, Lawrence Jackson is doubtful and Willie Young and Corey Williams are both questionable.  This should open the door for Nick Fairley, who looked really good in the game vs Carolina, but it will also hurt our rotational depth on the D-line, which could be bad if the Lion's offense can't give the defense enough rest.  Sammie Lee Hill should see more action, and I liked what I saw of him last week as well.  The only guy I have not been impressed, or happy, with this season at DT has been Andre Fluellen.  He will likely see an increase in snaps as well, if in fact Williams can't go.  No Willie Young and/or Lawrence Jackson will also put a lot of pressure on Vanden Bosch and Avril, who will be forced to play a full game.  No Chad Clifton for the Packers could help in that aspect, as the Packers will be forced to use 2nd year tackle Marshall Newhouse, out of TCU (6'4" 319lbs).  James Starks is questionable, but if he doesn't play then the Lions will see a lot of Ryan Grant, and possible BJ Raji in the red zone (who scored a red zone rushing TD last week).

With all of that in mind, let's review some of the ultimate keys to victory this week.  Like I said above, the Lions are going to have to play a very well disciplined game.  They are going to have to come out firing and get, and maintain, an early lead.  They can not afford to let Green Bay get a big lead, or they will be forced into a one dimensional offense.  When that happens, Green Bay's defense eats it up and creates turnovers, allowing their offense more chances to extend their lead.  The Lions MUST execute on offense, and they must attack Green Bay will a good balance of run and pass to keep them honest.  The Lions MUST be stout against the run, and they MUST get after Aaron Rodgers early and often.  The Lions MUST protect Matthew Stafford and give him time to throw the ball, and Matthew Stafford MUST protect the football, make smart decisions, good reads, and throw accurate, high percentage, passes.  Lastly, the Lions MUST avoid the senseless penalties, and keep the time of possession close at a minimum.  Normally some of the things I mentioned here would be considered secondary keys to victory in my opinion.  However, this time I believe that ALL of these keys are primary, and ultimately important if the Lions want to win this game.  If the Lions are lacking in any of the above areas, I believe the Packers will capitalize on it and beat them, just like they have done to every other team they have faced this season.  It's time to separate the men from the boys Detroit.  What are you made of?  Prove yourselves.

KEY PLAYERS:
Offensively for the Lions, I believe the key player this week will once again be Kevin Smith.  I said it last week, and it came true, and I believe it will happen again this week.  If Kevin Smith can get the ball rolling on the ground, then the Lions will have a much better chance at going toe to toe with the defending champs, offensively.  Of course, as I have stated several times this season, Matthew Stafford is always a key player for the Lions on offense.  If he is on his game, then Kevin Smith's performance will certainly be THE key to a Lion victory in this game.  If Stafford struggles, then I don't think anything Smith does will matter.  However, I believe Matthew Stafford is going to bring it this week, and as such I believe Kevin Smith stands an excellent chance of surpassing 100 yards rushing, thereby keeping Green Bay's defense on their heels all day long.  If Smith and the rest of the Lion's running backs can't get anything going, then Stafford will need to play a near perfect game in order for the Lions to beat the Packers.  I say Kevin Smith is the key player this week, because he can make or break the success of the Lion's passing game with his performance.

Kevin Smith is back, and he's better than ever!

Defensively for the Lions, I believe the key player this week will be Eric Wright and whether or not he can cover Jordy Nelson.  I believe that Chris Houston CAN cover Greg Jennings, but he will also be a key player for the Lion's defense this week.  The Packers have so many weapons that almost everyone on the Lion's defense is going to be tested.  Jermichael Finley is one of the most athletic TEs in the NFL, so Justin Durant and DeAndre Levy will have their work cut out for them.  Jennings, Nelson, Driver, and Jones are all solid receiving threats, so Wright and Houston will have their work cut out for them, as well as Delmas, Spievey, and Harris in support.  The D-line will be tasked with containing and pressuring the Packer's biggest weapon, which is none other than Aaron Rodgers, so they too will need their A-game.  However, Jordy Nelson is quietly putting up HUGE numbers, with 40 catches, 756 yards, 9 TDs, and an 18.9 average yards per catch (Jennings has 53 catches, 761 yards, 7 TDs, and a 14.4 avg).  Maybe it's because he's white (as he himself suggests), but I think it is more likely that teams simply do not believe that he is the receiving threat that he is, choosing to focus more attention on Greg Jennings.  The Lions are tasked with containing both, but if Eric Wright can contain Jordy Nelson, it will help the rest of the defense tremendously.  In all reality, everything depends on whether or not the defensive line can put consistent pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and also whether or not they can stop HIM from beating us by scrambling for first downs every time anyone gets near him.

Eric Wright makes a play against Carolina's Brandon LaFell.  Can he stop Jordy Nelson?

PREDICTION:
It's not going to be easy for the Lions at all, and in all likelihood they will be facing an uphill battle tomorrow, but as long as they play a relatively mistake free, well disciplined game, and they execute on offense, this will be a close game.  I'm pulling for a shootout, and the Lions winning 38-35 in OT.

I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 12 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!