The Weekend Spotlight - Week 3 Edition, 2011

Greetings ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the first edition of the NEW Weekend Spotlight for week 3 of the 2011 NFL season! I am your host, KDawg. Since this is the first installment of my new series, and since this is an entirely different venue than before, I will start by giving all of you a short background on what this series is all about. Every week from here through the end of the season, I am going to write a post to discuss key players for the Lions in their Sunday matchups. Just to give you guys a taste of what I will bring all season long, this week’s edition of the WS will examine a couple of key offensive and defensive players, who I feel will have a major impact on the upcoming game between the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings. I will name them, explain why I feel they are going to be key to the efforts of their team this week, and offer some subjective analysis as my reasoning. You can begin reading all of this, after the jump.


As previously stated, the Detroit Lions will be facing the Minnesota Vikings, on the road in Minneapolis, MN, at Mall of America Field at the H.H.H Metrodome.  With the Lions going into their third game of the young season, and coming off of their second win in a row in week 2 against the Chiefs, they will be facing their first Division rival of the year!  The Vikings are now 0-2 on the season, after losing to both San Diego and Tampa Bay by 7 points or less each.  It is no secret that their offense has been struggling mightily, with Donovan McNabb at the helm and a group of relatively lackluster receivers (with the exception of Percy Harvin).  Seemingly their only bright spot has been Adrian Peterson.  Their defense has also been subpar, mainly against the pass, ranking just 21st in the NFL overall, while 23rd against the pass and 10th against the run.

The Lions, on the other hand, are on fire.  Coming off of 2 HUGE victories, the Lion's offense has proven to be both dynamic and explosive.  They absolutely destroyed the Buccaneers in week 1, beating them in every statistical category with the exception of penalties (Lions had 8-68 yds and the Bucs 6 for 39 yards), yet the scoreboard remained close, with the Lions winning 27-20 due to, in my opinion, the soft play calling by Scott Linehan and the soft zone coverages we were playing on defense, late in the game.  That said, it almost seemed Jeckyl and Hyde-esque in the very next week, with the Lion's blow out victory versus the Chiefs.  Not only was the offense literally unstoppable, but the defense was also swarming on the run, especially after the injury to Jamaal Charles, and blanketing receivers against the pass.  Chris Houston, Eric Wright, and Amari Spievey all had interceptions, and Wright also had a forced fumble to go along with the one forced by Kyle Vanden Bosch.  Speaking of KVB, both he and Ndamukong Suh added a sack each to their totals.

Looking back, the Lions and Vikings also faced each other in week 3 of the season last year.  Minnesota, led by a tired Brett Favre, beat up on the Lions of the past, winning 24-10.  This year however, I believe it will be a much different story.  The Lion's offense is ranked 8th in the league in total yards, averaging 421 yards per game this season.  Their overall ranking is a combination of their 6th ranked passing offense, and their 12th ranked rushing offense.  Defensively, the Lions rank 7th overall in yards per game allowed, while ranking 7th against the pass and 13th against the run.  I believe the Lions will once again dominate almost every statistical category in the game, and that they will come out as the victor in the end.  That said, let's take a look at who will (or will not) be playing this week, by examining the injury reports for both teams:

Detroit Lions Week 2 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
DE	Cliff Avril	Knee	DNP
WR	Rashied Davis	Hamstring	DNP
S	Louis Delmas	Hip	DNP
DT	Nick Fairley	Foot	DNP
T	Jason Fox	Foot	DNP
WR	Calvin Johnson	Ankle	DNP
LB	DeAndre Levy	Knee	DNP
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	Shoulder	DNP
DE	Kyle Vanden Bosch	Not Injury Related	DNP
CB	Alphonso Smith	Foot	LP
WR	Maurice Stovall	Hand	LP

Minnesota Vikings Week 2 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
DE	Jared Allen	Shoulder	LP
CB	Chris Cook	Groin	LP
LB	EJ Henderson	Knee	LP
CB	Marcus Sherels	Chest	LP
CB	Asher Allen	Toe	FP
WR	Michael Jenkins	Groin	FP
DT	Kevin Williams	Foot	FP

As you can see, these are early reports.  However, the Lions have 9 players who did not practice on Wednesday, with 2 players being limited in practice, whereas everyone practiced for the Vikings, with 4 players being limited in practice.  This may or may not mean anything, as it is very likely that most of the players on our injury report are being held out of practice for precautionary reasons.  It could mean that the Lions are a bit more banged up than the Vikings too, on the other hand.  I believe it is the former, rather than the latter.  I think it will be even, in terms of injuries, when it comes to game time, and that there will be no advantages for either team, in terms of a more favorable matchup.


The key to this game should have nothing to do with the injury reports.  No, I believe the ultimate key to this game for the Lions will be to stop Adrian Peterson and force McNabb to beat them with the pass.  This is no different than what the Lions had to do in week 1 against Legarrette Blount, or in week 2 with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.  If the Lions can stop the run, they will dominate this game.  Secondary keys for the Lions will be to execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties, and control the time of possession.  Obviously the keys for the Vikings would be to run the ball effectively on offense, and stopping the Lions from disfiguring them on defense.  They will have a very hard time stopping Calvin Johnson, and I also expect big games from Tony Scheffler, Nate Burleson, and Jahvid Best.  I do not believe the Vikings can stop our passing game, as long as Backus is solid against Jared Allen, or as long as he gets enough help to contain him if he isn't getting the job done alone.  Their pass rush should not be a factor, even with Kevin Williams being cleared to play.  That said, I feel the obvious conclusion is that no matter what the Vikings do on defense (barring a rare sighting of the Purple defenses of old), our offense is unstoppable and the Lions will win, even if it is a shootout.


KEY PLAYERS:
On offense, I feel that the key player this week for the Lions is obviously going to be Jeff Backus.  As always, the rest of the offensive line, the TEs, and the RBs, are going to have to do their part to protect Matthew Stafford as well, but in all reality the spotlight here should be on Jeff Backus, and whether or not he still has what it takes to stop one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.  If he can contain Jared Allen, and if Matthew Stafford has time to throw, then there is not a defense in the league, outside of maybe the Jets or the Eagles, that can stop Stafford from dissecting them.  If Jeff Backus brings his A game, and Stafford does not have to fear for his life on his blind side, then he will carve up the Minnesota secondary, which in turn should open up the running game as the defense gets less aggressive up front.


On defense, I have to go with Stephen Tulloch as the key player this week.  Tulloch should be manned up on Adrian Peterson all day long.  As it is with the rest of the players on offense, the rest of the players on defense will also have to do a good job with their assignments, especially along our front 4.  If the front four can occupy the 5 offensive linemen, then our linebackers should have no problem stopping Peterson from beating us up on the ground.  However, I watched Stephen Tulloch over pursue and get out of position quite frequently in the first two games.  If he plays like that this week, then Adrian Peterson is one of those backs that will make him pay.  He is a great inside runner, and he also has the speed to reach the edge.  We had trouble with Jamaal Charles on the outside last week as well, so we will really need our outside backers to contain and our corners to come up quickly on runs to the outside.  However, if Tulloch does not plug the right running lanes this week, none of that will matter because AP will just kill us up the gut all day long.  If Tulloch plays well, then we have a much better chance of stopping any explosion plays from Adrian Peterson, and I believe that is what has to happen for the Lions to win convincingly.


For the Vikings, two players come to mind as key to their success on offense.  The performances of Adrian Peterson and Donovan McNabb (I say McNabb and not Harvin, because Harvin is a non-factor without McNabb) will directly dictate the success of the Viking's offense.  If the Lions are stopping Peterson, but McNabb is lighting them up, then it will be a close game.  If the Lions are not stopping Peterson, but McNabb is terrible, then it could also be a close game.  If both players are on their A game, then the Vikings could have a chance to win this game in the end.  Therefore it is critical that the Lions stop one or the other, and hopefully they will stop both.


Defensively for the Vikings, just as it was the matchup of Backus vs Allen for the Lions key offensive player, it is the same matchup for the Viking's key player on defense.  Jared Allen can make or break the Vikings on defense.  If he is running wild, and he is able to get to Stafford with any consistency, then the Lions will be in big trouble in a hurry.  Not only will Stafford's durability come into question, but also an effective pass rush could disrupt the most potent part of the Lion's offense; it's passing game.  It is also equally as critical for the Lions to contain Jared Allen, as it is for them to stop Donovan McNabb and Adrian Peterson.  If Jared Allen gets out of control, we could be in for a very long day.


PREDICTION: 
I predict that the Lions will win this game, and that the total score will be greater than 40 points.  TCLion has already predicted Detroit 31 - Minnesota 16.  I agree.


I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the first regular season edition of NEW Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!