The Weekend Spotlight - Week 3 Edition, 2011 - Follow Up Post #1

Calvin Johnson makes one of his spectacular catches of the game, in Overtime of the Lions vs Vikings game, which set up the game winning FG by Jason "Money" Hanson! 

Let me just start off by saying that you can't possibly win them all.  The intent of this post will be to revisit my pre-game predictions and comments, prior to the Lions vs Vikings game yesterday.  I will try my best to do a follow up post like this, each week.  I am very happy to report that, yesterday, the Vikings reminded me a LOT of the 2010 Detroit Lions.  They had a 20 point lead going into the half, and they had completely dominated the Lions for half of the game.  However, as we all know, the Lions mounted a huge comeback and won the game in OT, on a MONEY Hanson game winning field goal!

If you will all recall week 9 of last season, for example, the Lions had a 10 point lead on the New York Jets, with 4:18 left in the 4th quarter.  The Jets came back and tied the game, late in the 4th, sending the game to OT, where they won the toss and elected to receive.  They went on to defeat the Lions 23-20, by a game winning FG on their very first drive in OT.  That is just one example, as the Lions had other games where they collapsed in the 2nd half last year as well, but this example happens to fit perfectly in this case.  The Lions are now 3-0, for the first time since 1980, on the season, and they seem to be gaining momentum.  Yes, there are many areas that the Lions need to improve on if they hope to defeat a lot of the teams that they are still to face this year, but one major improvement that we all should take notice of, is the fact that THESE Lions NEVER quit, and they have the moxy and endurance to play a full 60 minutes in EVERY game.

I BELIEVE that the Lions can beat any team they have left on their schedule, especially with a healthy Matthew Stafford, who was nothing short of AWESOME yesterday, at the helm.  That said, I am here to recap my weekly post and talk about the things that I predicted before the game, so without further adieu, I present you with the follow-up to my WS W3E, which begins after the jump...

I'll get right to the point here.  After the preliminary looks at the injury report and the background of this game, I said the following:

The key to this game should have nothing to do with the injury reports.  No, I believe the ultimate key to this game for the Lions will be to stop Adrian Peterson and force McNabb to beat them with the pass.

I believe I was right here.  The outcome of this game was not effected by the early injury reports coming out of both camps.  The Lions DID hold Adrian Peterson to less than 100 yards rushing.  Whether that was due to poor play calling and game management by the Minnesota coaching staff, or if the Lions finally made adjustments to where they had AP's number, is an entirely different story.  I believed that the main key to a Lion's victory this week was stopping Adrian Peterson from beating us, and regardless of how it happened they seemed to get that job done, and they won the game in the end.  Donovan McNabb was FAR more accurate yesterday than I expected he would be, passing 22 for 36 for 211 yards and a TD, but the Lions did themselves a major service by putting the game on his shoulders and taking it away from Adrian Peterson.  Was it really the Lions that did this, or was it the Minnesota coaching staff?  I say it was a bit of both, and I for one am grateful for the shortcomings on their sidelines.

Secondary keys for the Lions will be to execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties, and control the time of possession.

The Lions DID execute on offense, but only in the 2nd half.  The Vikings were all over the Lions in the 1st half, holding them to -7 yards in the first quarter and to a total of 49 yards in the first half.  In the second half, however, the Lions turned the tables as the Vikings self destructed.  In the second half (including OT), the Lions put up 309 yards of offense, while holding Minnesota to a paltry 85 yards total in the second half (including OT).  Adrian Peterson had just 5 yards rushing in the entire second half (including OT).  As far as avoiding the senseless penalties was concerned, the Lions committed just 7 penalties for 65 yards on the day.  2 of these penalties (and 10 of the yards assessed) came against Jeff Backus, late in the 4th quarter, with two false start penalties as the Lions were pinned deep in their own territory.  I'll talk more about this later, but I also want to mention that the Lions DID win the time of possession battle, controlling the ball for 34:09 vs the 27:50 of the Vikings (a difference of 6:19).

Obviously the keys for the Vikings would be to run the ball effectively on offense, and stopping the Lions from disfiguring them on defense.  They will have a very hard time stopping Calvin Johnson, and I also expect big games from Tony Scheffler, Nate Burleson, and Jahvid Best.  I do not believe the Vikings can stop our passing game, as long as Backus is solid against Jared Allen, or as long as he gets enough help to contain him if he isn't getting the job done alone.  Their pass rush should not be a factor, even with Kevin Williams being cleared to play.  That said, I feel the obvious conclusion is that no matter what the Vikings do on defense (barring a rare sighting of the Purple defenses of old), our offense is unstoppable and the Lions will win, even if it is a shootout.

Well, the Vikings did run the ball quite effectively in the first half of the game, as Adrian Peterson had 73 yards and a TD in the 1st half.  They also added another 54 yards rushing on the game, between McNabb, Gerhart, and Harvin (with his 41 yard reverse).  As I said, Adrian Peterson had just 5 yards rushing in the second half yesterday, and Minnesota's offense was pretty much non-existent after the mid point.  Again in the first half, the Minnesota defense dominated the Lion's offense, holding them to just 49 yards.  However, they failed miserably at stopping the Lions from beating them in the 2nd half, as the Lion offense exploded for 309 second half yards.  As predicted, the vikings could not keep Calvin Johnson in check and he had another 2 TD game (his third of the year).  On the other hand, I was wrong about Jahvid Best, Tony Scheffler, and Nate Burleson.  While each of these players did their part, and while Best contributed 88 total yards from scrimmage (5 catches for 74 yards and 14 yards rushing), Tony Scheffler 1 catch for 4 yards and Nate Burleson had 2 catches for 12 yards.  None of these qualified as the "big games" I thought these players might have.  I was not mistaken in the idea that the Vikings could not stop our passing game, that is to say in the second half, AFTER Jeff Backus seemed to get a better grip on Jared Allen.  Up until that point, the pass rush of the Vikings was dominating the game.  In the end of course, things turned in our favor and the Lions DID win.

On offense, I feel that the key player this week for the Lions is obviously going to be Jeff Backus.  As always, the rest of the offensive line, the TEs, and the RBs, are going to have to do their part to protect Matthew Stafford as well, but in all reality the spotlight here should be on Jeff Backus, and whether or not he still has what it takes to stop one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.  If he can contain Jared Allen, and if Matthew Stafford has time to throw, then there is not a defense in the league, outside of maybe the Jets or the Eagles, that can stop Stafford from dissecting them.  If Jeff Backus brings his A game, and Stafford does not have to fear for his life on his blind side, then he will carve up the Minnesota secondary, which in turn should open up the running game as the defense gets less aggressive up front.

In the key players section, my pick on offense was Jeff Backus.  TCLion and I were both intrigued by this matchup from the beginning, and Backus's performance DID have a very direct effect on the success of the Lions on offense.  In the first half, and even at times during the second half, Jared Allen was a one man wrecking crew.  He dominated Backus in the first half, totaling 2 sacks on Stafford (who had not been sacked up to this point of the season).  Stafford was also sacked twice by Brian Robison, the first of which led to the benching of Gosder Cherilus.  Backus proved, once again, that he is not capable of containing the leagues top speed rushers, by himself, at this point in his career.  However in the second half Backus did do a better job on Allen, and once he was doing this it opened up our entire offense and Matthew Stafford did exactly what I said he would do.  Stafford, when he had time to make his reads, set up, and throw the ball, effectively dissected the Minnesota defense, carving them up to the tune of 339 yards in the 2nd half (including OT).  The running game of the Lions never did open up, however, as they finished the game with just 20 yards total rushing.

On defense, I have to go with Stephen Tulloch as the key player this week.  Tulloch should be manned up on Adrian Peterson all day long.  As it is with the rest of the players on offense, the rest of the players on defense will also have to do a good job with their assignments, especially along our front 4.  If the front four can occupy the 5 offensive linemen, then our linebackers should have no problem stopping Peterson from beating us up on the ground.  However, I watched Stephen Tulloch over pursue and get out of position quite frequently in the first two games.  If he plays like that this week, then Adrian Peterson is one of those backs that will make him pay.  He is a great inside runner, and he also has the speed to reach the edge.  We had trouble with Jamaal Charles on the outside last week as well, so we will really need our outside backers to contain and our corners to come up quickly on runs to the outside.  However, if Tulloch does not plug the right running lanes this week, none of that will matter because AP will just kill us up the gut all day long.  If Tulloch plays well, then we have a much better chance of stopping any explosion plays from Adrian Peterson, and I believe that is what has to happen for the Lions to win convincingly.

My defensive pick was spot on.  Stephen Tulloch led the team in tackles this week, with 7.  That said, he was not very effective in the 1st half, but neither was the rest of the Lion defense.  After the halftime adjustments, Tulloch and the rest of the linebackers seemed to be much less aggressive, staying home and effectively erasing the Vikings running game.  In the first half, when Tulloch, Durant, and Levy were blitzing more often and over pursuing the ball carrier, Adrian Peterson was able to hit on a 43 yard run right up the gut.  After they adjusted at half time, they held Adrian Peterson to 5 yards rushing for the rest of the game!  All I can say about that is THANK GOD our coaches are as good as they are, and that they recognize what is going wrong with our units.  Once the adjustments were made, Tulloch led the defense in tackles and gave the offense a good chance to win the game.

For the Vikings, two players come to mind as key to their success on offense.  The performances of Adrian Peterson and Donovan McNabb (I say McNabb and not Harvin, because Harvin is a non-factor without McNabb) will directly dictate the success of the Viking's offense.  If the Lions are stopping Peterson, but McNabb is lighting them up, then it will be a close game.  If the Lions are not stopping Peterson, but McNabb is terrible, then it could also be a close game.  If both players are on their A game, then the Vikings could have a chance to win this game in the end.  Therefore it is critical that the Lions stop one or the other, and hopefully they will stop both.

What more can I say?  When the Lions were letting Adrian Peterson run all over them in the 1st half, the Vikings and McNabb were also able to pass the ball effectively.  The Lions were not stopping Adrian Peterson at all, and the result was that the run game was able to open up the passing game.  In the first half yesterday, both Peterson and McNabb seemed to have brought their A games.  The result was that they led the Lions 20-0 at the half.  Once the Lions adjusted and subsequently shut Adrian Peterson down in the second half, the game was all on Donovan McNabb.  McNabb also faltered in the second half, but was able to do enough to keep the game close and send it to OT.  We stopped Peterson in the second half, but McNabb and Harvin kept them in the game, as we could not seem to stop the 10-12 yard passes.  If Peterson and McNabb had been able to maintain their A games for the entire game, I have no doubt that the Lions would have lost in the end.  As it was, just Peterson having his A game in the first half was enough to make it a close game.

Defensively for the Vikings, just as it was the matchup of Backus vs Allen for the Lions key offensive player, it is the same matchup for the Viking's key player on defense.  Jared Allen can make or break the Vikings on defense.  If he is running wild, and he is able to get to Stafford with any consistency, then the Lions will be in big trouble in a hurry.  Not only will Stafford's durability come into question, but also an effective pass rush could disrupt the most potent part of the Lion's offense; it's passing game.  It is also equally as critical for the Lions to contain Jared Allen, as it is for them to stop Donovan McNabb and Adrian Peterson.  If Jared Allen gets out of control, we could be in for a very long day.

Clearly, Backus was outmatched and out skilled in this matchup.  The senseless false start penalties, late in the 4th quarter, were a perfect testament to this fact.  Backus was trying to anticipate the snap count, just as much as Jared Allen was, and with the crowd noise proving to be a big factor, Backus committed TWO false start penalties in a row.  He nearly single handedly lost the Lions the game, as they were forced back to their own 10 yard line, after the touchback and these penalties.  Therefore, the Lions had 1 minute and 11 seconds to move the ball at LEAST 55 yards to set up for a game winning 52 yard FG, and they were already starting 1st and 20, thanks to Jeff Backus.  The result of these penalties was giving the Lions a close space to work with to begin with, but that was not the last effort by Backus to hand Minnesota the game.  On 1st and 20, Matthew Stafford was sacked for a loss of another 7 yards.  Guess who made the sack?  That's right...it was none other than Backus's assignment, Jared Allen.  


So with 1:05 left in the game, the Lions were pinned at their own 3 yard line on 2nd down and 27...all thanks to 3 horrible plays in a row by our starting left tackle.  The Lions nearly lost the game on the very next play, as they handed the ball off to Jahvid Best.  Best was barely able to get out of the end zone before being tackled, not just on THAT play, but the next play as well.  The Lions were EXTREMELY fortunate to be able to attempt to punt the ball on 4th and 27, and also very fortunate that the coaching staff was on top of things, as they ran the clock down as far as they could before Ryan Donahue belted a 52 yard punt.  Not even the solid punt might have been enough to send the game into OT though, as the Vikings return specialist, Sherels, returned the ball to the Detroit 45.  Thanks to another boneheaded penalty by the Vikings on the return, a 15 yard personal foul for unnecessary roughness on Onatolu, the Viking were pushed back across midfield to their own 40 yard line.  That made them need a minimum of 22 yards to set up for a 55 yard game winning FG attempt by Longwell.  Fortunately for the Lions, the good sense of their coaching staff made it to where the Vikings only had 11 seconds to accomplish these 2 things.


The end result was one play by the Vikings before the game was sent into OT.  McNabb DID complete a 24 yard pass to Mike Jenkins, but for some unknown reason he decided that he needed to attempt a lateral to Bernard Berrian, likely because he had no chance to get out of bounds to stop the clock.  The result of the decision was a FORWARD pass instead of a lateral, thereby rendering the play DEAD at that point, and nullifying the subsequent fumble by Berrian and recovery of that fumble by Louis Delmas.  The time in regulation had expired, and the game was going to OT.  The Lions won the toss in OT, elected to receive, marched down the field in quick succession, and handed the ball over to "Money" Hanson.  Living up to his nickname, Hanson nailed a 32 yard FG (which was conspicuously close to the left upright) to win the game for the Lions.  Final score 26-23 Detroit!


And that is the end of this weeks follow up post!  The Lions did many of the things I predicted necessary to win this game, even though it was VERY ugly in the first half.  Overall, I think it was still a good week for Detroit Lions football, and I am looking forward to week 4!  Until then Lion's fans, this has been KDawg with the WS W3E followup.  GOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOONS!