The Weekend Spotlight - Week 4 Edition, 2011

With a healthy Matthew Stafford, a Lion VICTORY is always within reach!

Hello again ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the week 4 edition of the Weekend Spotlight! I am your host, KDawg.  This installment of your weekly WS has the Detroit Lions facing the Dallas Cowboys, on the road in Dallas, TX, at Cowboys Stadium.  Coming off of a huge come from behind victory in OT, versus the Vikings last week, the Lions have now won their first 3 games of the season!  I would be lying if I said that I was not extremely happy and excited for our team, but I am not quite so satisfied that I am over confident.  However, I think the Lions HAVE already made a big statement to the league, and it said "We ARE for real!"  That said, I am geeked up for the game this week and believing that the Lions could take their record to 4-0.  With 3 weeks of the season under our belts, I will once again reveal to you who I believe the key players will be, on the Lion's offense and defense, for another Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats and a prediction at the end.  The Cowboys may actually be the toughest team we have faced so far, as I believe that their offense is far superior to any team we have faced to this point, and their defense is just as good as Minnesota's (if not better) and they do not fade away in the second half like the Vikings.  Regardless, VICTORY can still be ours, and I will tell you why and how as the WS W4E begins...after the jump.

THE SKINNY:
As we all know, the Detroit Lions are on a roll.  With the Buffalo Bills' defeat of the Patriots last week the Lions now hold the longest active winning streak in the NFL, with 7 regular season wins in a row!  When Matthew Stafford has had time to throw, as evidenced in both of the first two games and in the second half of the week 3 game, the offense is seemingly unstoppable.  Even though opposing teams KNOW we are going to pass the ball, as our run blocking is too pathetic to allow for a consistently solid running game, they still can not match up across the board with Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, Jahvid Best, Brandon Pettigrew, and Tony Scheffler.  Of course, not all of those players can be in the game at the same time, but 5 of the 6 are always on the field and at least 2 of the 5 are always open!  Matthew Stafford is a dream come true for Lion's fans, as he has the arm strength and accuracy to pick apart any and all NFL defenses when given the proper amount of time to throw.  Our defense has had it's ups and downs, however, looking rather shaky in the first half against the Vikings, but overall they have been pretty solid as well.  They are still getting consistent pressure on opposing QBs, as Spievey, Suh, Vanden Bosch, and Avril all had sacks on McNabb last week.

SUHHHHHHH!!!!

The Cowboys are 2-1 on the season.  They played a very solid game in week 1 against the Jets, and Tony Romo passed for 342 yards and 2 TDs against perhaps the best pass defense in the league.  However, he also threw a costly interception, and the Jets capitalized on all 3 turnovers by the Cowboys to come away with the victory.  The Cowboys moved on to face the 49ers in week 2, and Romo again passed for 345 yards and 2 TDs enroute to a Dallas victory.  This victory did not come without a price though, as Romo was battered by the 49ers defense and came away with a punctured lung and 2 broken ribs...OUCH!  Being the tough SOB that he is, however, he came back and played the very next week against the Redskins on Monday Night Football.  Even banged up as he was, Romo managed to pass for 255 yards on 36 attempts and 22 completions, with 1 INT.  He did not throw a TD pass, but he led enough deep drives that they were able to kick 6 FGs to win the game 18-16.  Felix Jones also rushed for 115 yards and no scores, so it wasn't an all out aerial assault.   The story of the game was definitely defense, as the Cowboys racked up 3 sacks (bringing their total to 13 sacks in 3 games), an INT, and a forced fumble (which they also recovered).  The Deadskins could not establish a consistent pass rush, and they could not stop the run, while the Cowboy's defense only allowed 65 yards rushing and 250 gross passing yards on the game.

#93 Anthony Spencer performs a strip sack on Rex Grossman in the 4th Quarter last Monday.  The Cowboys recovered and the result was a game winning FG.

The last time the Lions faced the Cowboys was in week 11 of the 2010 season.  Both Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo were injured and did not play.  The Cowboys came into the game with a 3-7 record, while the Lions were 2-8.  It was an ugly game, as the Lions allowed Jon Kitna to pass for 3 TDs on only 147 yards.  They also allowed Kitna to rush for 40 yards and a rushing TD in that game.  The Cowboys went on to win the game 35-19, after trailing 10-7 at the half.  However, this is a completely different Lions team this season, and the Cowboys are going to have their hands full come Sunday.


The Lion's offense currently ranks 10th in the league in total yards, averaging 400 yards per game.  They currently rank 4th in passing offense (tied with Carolina) and 26th in rushing.  Defensively, the Lions currently rank 6th in total yards allowed, giving up an average of 301 yards per game.  They currently rank 4th against the pass, and 21st against the run.  The run defense is clearly something to be desired after 3 games, but I do not think it is so bad that it will cost us any games.  I do think, if it does not get better, that it will allow opponents to control the clock more, limiting the amount of time that our offense has to do damage, and if our defense is forced to stay on the field more that they will give up more points than if the run defense were better, which in turn will make games much closer in the end.  However, I still believe the Lions will win the contest this week against the Cowboys, even if they do not dominate every statistical category.  Let's take a look at the early team injury reports, and see who will and will not be playing this week:

Detroit Lions Week 4 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
CB	Aaron Berry	Groin	DNP
WR	Rashied Davis	Foot	DNP
S	Louis Delmas	Abdomen	DNP
LB	Justin Durant	Concussion	DNP
DT	Nick Fairley	Foot	DNP
T	Jason Fox	Foot	DNP
WR	Calvin Johnson	Ankle	DNP
S	John Wendling	Knee	DNP
DE	Kyle Vanden Bosch	Not Injury Related	DNP
DE	Lawrence Jackson	Hamstring	LP
TE	Brandon Pettigrew	Shoulder	LP
LB	DeAndre Levy	Knee	LP
WR	Maurice Stovall	Hand	LP
CB	Eric Wright	Groin	LP
QB	Matthew Stafford	Right Forearm	FP

Dallas Cowboys Week 4 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
WR	Miles Austin	Hamstring	DNP
K	David Buehler	Groin	DNP
G	Derrick Dockery	Knee	DNP
DE	Jason Hatcher	Calf	DNP
CB	Orlando Scandrick	Ankle	DNP
WR	Dez Bryant	Thigh	LP
FB	Tony Fiammetta	Hamstring	LP
QB	Tony Romo	Ribs	LP
C	Phil Costa	Knee	FP
CB	Mike Jenkins	Shoulder	FP
RB	Felix Jones	Shoulder	FP
LB	Anthony Spencer	Shoulder	FP

             
It becomes obvious, upon examination of the early injury reports, that the Lions are quite a bit more banged up than the Cowboys.  The Lions had 9 players that did not practice on Wednesday, 5 that were limited, and one player (Matthew Stafford) listed on the injury report that was able to practice in full.  The Cowboys, on the other hand, had 5 players that did not practice, 3 limited, and 4 listed players that practiced in full.  Once again I must stress that it is not uncommon at all for players with injuries to be held out of practice on Wednesdays for precautionary reasons.  As has been the case in the past, most of the players who did not practice on Wednesday will likely practice later in the week, and then play on Sunday or Monday.  That said, it is pretty difficult for me to say who will and will not play, until at least Friday's injury report comes out.  However, I will predict that Aaron Berry, Nick Fairley, and Rashied Davis all sit out this week, and that David Buehler will be the only scratch for the Cowboys.  I see no real advantage on either side, pertaining to injuries and subsequent matchup changes.  **In breaking news, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin both missed practice again today, and both are questionable to play on Sunday...but I still bet they play.  Dockery, Hatcher, Scandrick, and Buehler also DNP...so it is possible that the Cowboys could be without a few of their starters come Sunday, but I wouldn't bank on it.


Once again, I do not believe that the key to this game for the Lions will have anything to do with injuries.  I believe that the ultimate keys to victory this week for the Lions will be protecting Matthew Stafford, stopping Felix Jones from beating us on the ground, stopping the Romo to Witten connection from beating us, and getting to Tony Romo early and often with the pass rush.  As usual, I believe the secondary keys for the Lions will be to execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties, and control the time of possession.  For the Cowboys, I believe they will win this game if they can stop our pass rush, effectively run the ball, and beat our defense with passes to Witten.  The Lions are not going to be able to afford to let this team control the first half, like they did against the Vikings last week, because the Cowboys are not a team that fades away in the second half.  However, even in an offensive shootout I believe the Lions will win this game as long as they give Matthew Stafford time to throw the ball.

The Romo to Witten connection...something they do often.

KEY PLAYERS:
Offensively for the Lions, I believe the key player this week (outside of the entire offensive line) will be Nate Burleson.  Calvin Johnson will get his 2 TDs, and possibly even surpass 100 yards receiving, but the key to the Lions effectively moving the ball down the field and controlling the clock will be on short passes to Burleson.  I do not see Titus Young being a huge factor this week, even though he will likely get 2-3 catches and a decent number of yards.  I would say that Jahvid Best will be the key player this week, but I have yet to see the Lions really utilize him, this year, in a manner like that of the game vs the Eagles last year.  I also believe that the Cowboys will be ready for the screens and dumpoffs to Best, so unless the Lions go to him more than anyone else in the game, I do not see him being the main weapon of attack.  I also do not believe that Tony Scheffler or Brandon Pettigrew will see the same sort of success this week as Pettigrew saw last week, mainly because I believe the Cowboys have a better set of coverage linebackers, and because I think our TEs are going to be needed more for blocking than anything else this time around.  My feeling is that Nate Burleson will be the main weapon of choice for Matthew Stafford this week, and I believe his ability to gain yards after the catch, in space, will be KEY to the Lion's success on offense.  With Nate making quick and effective gains on a regular basis, it will force the Dallas defense to play underneath more often, which is when we will have our chances to beat them deep.

Nate Burleson celebrates with Calvin Johnson after his TD catch in week 1 vs Tampa Bay.

Defensively, it is a really tough call.  On one hand you might say that Ndamukong Suh or Corey Williams would be the key player on defense this week, because if they are able to get to Romo it could make a huge difference in their passing game.  On the other hand one might argue that DeAndre Levy or Justin Durant will be the key player, because both of them could be matched up to cover Witten at any given time during the game.  You might also argue that the safeties will be key, as they are going to have to do an excellent job in run support and in coming up to make plays on Witten.  While all of these players will play significant roles this week, and while they could turn out to be KEY to a Lion victory if everything goes our way, I am much more worried about the matchup between Chris Houston and Dez Bryant.  On the occasions that Romo does have time to throw, and even sometimes when he doesn't since he often throws off of his back foot or on the run, if Dez Bryant is able to use his size and strength advantages to beat Chris Houston, then the Cowboys could look to him more than anyone else.  They have already shown a propensity for trying to get him the ball as much as possible, even when he clearly notified the coaching staff that he was injured, and even when it seemed like they were trying to force the ball to him.  Chris Houston is 5'11" and 178 pounds, while Dez Bryant is 6'2" 225 pounds.  Bryant is no Calvin, or even Andre, Johnson, but he does pose a potential mismatch on Houston if he plays.  Chris Houston is going to have to play bigger and faster than his stature suggests, and in my mind HE is going to be the KEY player on defense for a Lions victory this week (if Bryant plays...if not, then the corner matched up on Miles Austin would be my pick, if Austin plays).

Dez Bryant runs over Brian Orakpo and fights for extra yards with DeAngelo Hall.

From what I have already talked about, I think it is clear that the key offensive players for the Cowboys will be Tony Romo, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant.  Felix Jones could enter that mix as well, depending on how our run defense goes this week.  Just like it was vs the Vikings, the Lions absolutely MUST stop one aspect or the other of the Cowboy attack.  If they fail to stop the run, while also failing to stop the passing game, then  I think this game could end up going either way, as it will be very close.  If the Lions can manage to either stop Felix Jones and the Cowboy running game, or stop Romo and the passing offense, then I believe the Lions will win hands down.  If, and only if, they can stop both aspects of the Cowboy offense, then this game could easily be a blowout victory for the Lions.  However, my gut instinct says it will be a close game and that the Lions will give up at least 300 yards of total offense.


Defensively for Dallas, their key player is DeMarcus Ware.  Ware already has 5 sacks in just 3 games, and he is the guy who will pose the greatest threat to Matthew Stafford and the Lion's passing game.  Outside of Ware, MOLB Sean Lee has been a tackling machine for Dallas so far this year.  The Cowboys run a 3-4 defense, and they blitz their linebackers in a number of different ways, so both of their OLBs are always a threat to get to the opposing QB, as they have shown with the 8 combined sacks in 3 games from Ware and Anthony Spencer.  They also have depth players that are capable of solid pass rushing, as backup LE Jason Hatcher has recorded 2 sacks, while backup FS Danny McCray and backup SLB Victor Butler have 1 sack each.  The only other regular starter that has a sack for Dallas is Jay Ratliff, the nose tackle, with 1.  Besides being a tackling machine, Sean Lee has also shown his prowess in pass coverage, with 2 INTS.  Backup RCB Alan Ball has the only other INT for the Cowboys so far.

DeMarcus Ware is a force to be reckoned with.

PREDICTION:
I predict that the Lions will win this game, and that the score will be just over 40 points once again.  Detroit 24 - Dallas 17.


I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 4 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!