The Weekend Spotlight - Week 17 Edition - 2011

#9 Matthew Stafford already looks almost as good as Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, at just 23 years old.

Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen, to the week 17 edition of YOUR Weekend Spotlight!  I am your host, KDawg.  This installment of your weekly WS will feature a division rivalry game between our very own Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers, on the road in Green Bay, WI, at historic Lambeau Field.  As we all witnessed last weekend, the Lions absolutely destroyed the San Diego Chargers, taking their regular season record to an amazing 10-5 and clinching a spot in the playoffs for the first time since 1999!!  The Lions will face a 14-1 Packer team, which has already locked up a first round bye, as well as home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  With just one game left of the regular season, the only thing left for the Lions is to WIN this game in Green Bay, thereby securing the 5th seed.  If they lose, and if Atlanta wins, the Lions will be the 6th seed, due to the fact that Atlanta would own the head to head tiebreaker should they and the Lions finish with the same record.  There are many reasons why I believe the Lions WILL win this game, and I will reveal some of them alongside my picks for key players (for another Lion VICTORY), and general game prediction, after the jump...

THE SKINNY:
Let me just start off by reiterating the obvious.  The Packers have already won a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  So what reasons could they have to feel the need to risk injury to their key starters, right before the playoffs, by playing them in order to increase their chances of beating Detroit this week?  Maybe they might want to knock the Lions down a notch because they feel threatened by their surging momentum?  Maybe they hate the Lions so much that they can't stand the thought of them beating them in their own stadium?  Is there any conceivable, logical, reason why the Packers would want to win this game, other than just because it is the Lions and/or the game is at Lambeau Field?  Is it not possible that the Packers might fear the Lions more than they fear the Falcons?  And if that is the case, is it not also possible that they might want to make sure the Lions face the toughest road possible in order to face them again in the playoffs?  If so, then the Packers may very well want to beat Detroit this weekend, forcing them into the 6th seed where they will face either the 49ers or the Saints in round 1, thereby giving the Lions less of a chance to see them again, and a slightly better chance for Atlanta to face them in the 2nd round.

That said, this is the PACKERS we are talking about here.  They are 14-1!  Is there ANY team in the NFL that they fear?  I'm thinking there is not, and as such I think the Packers will rest their key starters for this game, including Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, and maybe even Clay Matthews and a few others.

Another reason I believe the Lions will win this game is simply based on the fact that they will want to keep their momentum rolling, on top of the idea of paving the smoothest route possible to the Superbowl.  It is no secret that most people feel the #5 seed will have an easier opponent in NYG/Dallas (whichever of the two becomes the #4 seed as the NFC East Champions), rather than SF/NO (whichever of the two becomes the #3 seed is who the #6 seed will face in round one).  I believe the Lions will play their starters against Green Bay, until it is next to 100% certain they will win the game.  If they are playing a lesser Green Bay squad than normal, then obviously they SHOULD win, but I think they CAN win, even if Rodgers and all of the GB starters play, as long as they do not beat themselves.

Looking at the offensive and defensive rankings, the Packers currently rank 5th overall in total offense (395.5 ypg).  They are currently ranked 3rd in the league in passing (297 ypg) and 27th in rushing (98.5 ypg).  As I stated earlier in the season, the Packers are a pass first/run second type of team on offense, and they often rely on turnovers created by their defense to win games.  Aaron Rodgers is seemingly a man among boys when it comes to passing the ball, as he often makes it look effortless while he racks up 300+ yards and 4-5 TD passes in a game at times.  If he plays, then he is without a doubt the key player for the Packers, and the key to their offensive success.

He's the man, but does he play on Sunday?

Defensively, the Packers currently rank 31st overall in total defense (400.7 ypga).  They are currently ranked 31st in the league against the pass (286.3 ypga) and 16th against the run (114.4 ypga).  At first glance these stats would suggest that Green Bay's defense isn't very good at all, but upon further review this proves to be quite misleading.  The Packers lead the league with 29 INTs, and the Lions are the ONLY team with MORE INT TDs (pick sixes) than the Packers.  Buffalo, Seattle, and GB all have 4 pick sixes, while Detroit has 5.  Charles Woodson is tied, with San Diego's Eric Weddle and New England's Kyle Arrington, for the league lead in INTs (7).  I believe he is also one of the best CBs in the league when it comes to covering Calvin Johnson.  Clay Matthews is one of the best pass coverage LBs in the NFL, with 12 passes defended, 3 INTs, 3 FFs, and a TD.  He will be on Pettigrew all day.  Desmond Bishop and A.J. Hawk have also combined for 189 tackles and 6.5 sacks, so they aren't all slouches.  The GB defensive line is not all that special however, and this attributes to much of their problems this season in terms of yards allowed.

Charles Woodson is still one of the best at his position, but will he play and can he stop Megatron?

The Lions currently rank 7th overall in total offense (384.1 ypg).  They are currently ranked 5th in the league in passing (287.5 ypg) and 29th in rushing (96.7 ypg).  We all know that the Lions are "built to pass the ball", but against the Packers major damage could be done on the ground too.  Kevin Smith's ankle is getting better and better, and until he re-injured it on Thanksgiving he was giving the Packers all sorts of trouble.  If the Lions get it going on the ground, this time, it would help them substantially, especially since the game is outdoors on the "frozen tundra".  Hopefully the wind will not be as much of a factor as the cold temperature will be, but if it becomes an issue then a solid running game could be the difference between a win and a loss in this game.

Defensively, the Lions currently rank 20th overall in total defense (355.4 ypga).  They are currently ranked 14th in the league against the pass (224.1 ypga) and 26th against the run (131.3 ypga).  The Lions are 4th in the league in INTs (20), #1 in the league in defensive TDs (7), tied for 4th in the league in forced fumbles (16), tied for 3rd in forced fumbles recovered (12), and tied for 2nd in the league in FFs returned for a TD (2).  Cliff Avril leads the Lions with 11 of Detroit's 38 sacks (ranked T13), while KVB has 8 sacks.  LoJack had 4.5 before he was injured, Suh has 3, Corey Williams and Willie Young have 2 each, Nick Fairley has 1, and SLH has 0.5 (for those of you doing the math, the other 6 sacks were made by the LBs (Tulloch 3, Durant 1, Levy 1) and Spievey (1)).  Chris Houston (5), Eric Wright (4), Amari Spievey (3), Alphonso Smith (2), and Chris Harris (1) have combined for 15 INTs.  Bobby Carpenter, Stephen Tulloch, and DeAndre Levy add another 4 INTs.  Clearly the Lions do well at covering receivers and getting turnovers, but they have work to do against the run.  That said, Green Bay is a poor running team and we have faced and beaten teams with far better running attacks.

The bottom line is that once again this game looks, on paper, like it should be an offensive shootout.  As I said last week, I believe the team that wins will be the team that made the fewest mistakes.  The Lion's ultimate keys to victory against Green Bay are the same as they were last week against San Diego.  The Lions must play a well disciplined game, win the turnover battle, execute efficiently and effectively on offense, limit explosion plays on defense, and get after Rodgers (or whoever ends up under center on Sunday) and force him to make mistakes.  The Lions can beat the Packers if they do not beat themselves.  Both offenses are very comparable statistically, and the Lions are superior against the pass, while the Packers are superior against the run on defense.  The Packers are slightly better than the Lions offensively, but the strength of our defense (stopping the pass) plays against the strength of their offense (passing), while the strength of their defense (stopping the run) does not match up with the strength of our offense (passing).  The Packers are weakest where the Lions are strongest...it's a no brainer that they CAN win as long as they keep their heads on straight.


With all of that in mind, let's take a quick look at the injury reports for both teams:

Detroit Lions Week 17 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
S	John Wendling	Illness	Not Listed	Not Listed	DNP	Probable
DT	Corey Williams	Hip	DNP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
CB	Aaron Berry	Shoulder	LP	LP	LP	Doubtful
S	Louis Delmas	Knee	DNP	DNP	LP	Doubtful
DT	Nick Fairley	Foot	LP	DNP	LP	Questionable
CB	Chris Houston	Hand/Knee	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
WR	Calvin Johnson	Achilles	DNP	DNP	LP	Probable
S	Amari Spievey	Knee	FP	LP	LP	Questionable
DE	Willie Young	Ankle	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
DE	Cliff Avril	Back	LP	FP	FP	Probable
RB	Kevin Smith	Ankle	FP	FP	FP	Probable

Green Bay Packers Week 17 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
WR	Greg Jennings	Knee	Out	Out	Out	Out
WR	Randall Cobb	Groin	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
RB	James Starks	Knee/Ankle	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
T	Bryan Bulaga	Knee	DNP	LP	DNP	Doubtful
T	Chad Clifton	Hamstring/Back	LP	LP	LP	Probable
TE	Jermichael Finley	Knee	DNP	LP	LP	Probable
LB	Clay Matthews	Ankle	LP	LP	LP	Questionable
CB	Charles Woodson	Knee	LP	LP	LP	Questionable
DE	Ryan Pickett	Concussion	LP	LP	FP	Probable

I don't know what to say about all of this, so I'll let you guys interpret this as you will.  All I can say is that I don't think we'll see all of Green Bay's starters, and our depth players have more than proven themselves all season long.


KEY PLAYERS:
Offensively, my pick last week was money.  Matthew Stafford was ON FIRE last week against the Chargers, and proved my sentiments to be correct about him always being the key player on the Lion's offense.  This week will be no different in that aspect, but I believe we are going to see the Lions try to run the ball quite a bit this time.  The forecast for Sunday in Green Bay calls for temperatures in the lower 30's, with flurries and winds at around 24 mph.  The cold shouldn't be much of a factor, as 30 is pretty warm for Green Bay in January, but the wind and field conditions may make timing the greatest issue in terms of the passing game.  As such, while Stafford and Johnson are clearly our biggest weapons on offense, I am once again naming Kevin Smith as the key player for the Lion's offense this week.  Not only will his performance based on running the ball be a key, but also his ability to catch the ball and get yards after the catch out of the backfield will be key.  If Smith stays healthy, he could be in for a big day on Sunday.

Shake and Bake K-Smooth!!

Defensively, last week's Cliff Avril pick was good, as he had a key INT, but the real key players turned out to be Justin Durant, Stephen Tulloch, and DeAndre Levy, who combined for 18 tackles and stopped Ryan Matthews from doing much of anything.  The Chargers were forced into a one dimensional game on offense, and Phillip Rivers was never able to get a real rhythm going (even though he did not suffer a single sack).  Amari Spievey led the team in tackles on Thanksgiving, but this time around I see things playing out a bit differently.  I believe Cliff Avril will be the key player this week on the Lion's defense, not only because Brian Bulaga will be out and Avril will be playing against a backup, but also because Avril had a sack and a forced fumble last time and this time he should be even more fired up.  It will be interesting to see how Suh plays in this game as well, and I believe Suh will be another factor in Avril's success this weekend.

Go get em Cliff!!

PREDICTION:
I predict that the Lions will beat up on the Packer's backups in this game, and it will be over by the end of the 3rd quarter.  Final score: Lions 28 Green Bay 10.  I'll see you all back next week for the FIRST WS Playoff Edition!
    
I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 17 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!