Breaking down the Cowboys - Week 4

On offense – The key to unraveling the Cowboys lies in attacking their young offensive line, and luckily the Detroit Lions are well equipped to do just that. With two rookies, a second year center, and retread guard Kyle Kosier, the Cowboys offensive line is the primary culprit for the dinged up Tony Romo. When Romo has time in the pocket, he is as deadly a gunslinger as they come, and can pick apart even the best coverage schemes. When mobile after getting flushed from the pocket, he is nearly as accurate on the run as in the pocket. Given his broken rib though, his mobility is limited, as displayed against the Redskins on Monday night. Jason Witten provides extreme matchup problems for any defense, and the Lions are no exception. Most linebackers and safeties that are big enough to keep up with him, are usually too small to be effective in covering his large frame, and most linebackers and defensive ends that are large enough to body him around physically, are too slow to keep up with his precision route running. Wide receiver Dez Bryant may be as talented as they come, but he too is limited by a quadriceps injury. On the other side, Miles Austin is expected to miss the game against the Lions with a bum hamstring, leaving the Cowboys with an assortment of bumbling underachievers at wide receiver. Several times on Monday night, Romo had to take time to be a receivers coach during the game and show these guys where to line up, and even that didn’t guarantee them running the correct route. When running the ball, the Cowboys are well below average, but they are persistent, and they don’t abandon the run even late in the game. Felix Jones is a much better running back than people give him credit for. He has bulked up over the past year and is unafraid to run between the tackles, something he displayed in the past, even running with a separated shoulder as he is now. Even though he is bigger, he has tremendous burst and ability to bounce it outside if he sees an opportunity. Jones is a very real threat to take it to the house every time he hits a hole, which is seldom, due to the young offensive lines inept run blocking.

Lions on Defense – Expect the Lions to push the issue up front, literally. Their defensive line will have the opportunity to get after Romo, and they have the talent to go on a feeding frenzy Sunday. Expect the Cowboys to try and slow things down with screens, quick hitters, and maybe even a reverse. If Romo get even a little time, expect him to look for Witten first, often, and ready to pull the trigger. Expect the Lions to try a combination of linebackers, Delmas, and even Avril in covering Witten until they find something that works. Expect Dez Bryant to receive special attention from the secondary, and for those playing in the off coverage to pay strict attention to their assignments, as that may be their best chance to get an INT as the receiver runs off on a wrong route. The key matchup here is going to be Vanden Bosch versus Doug Free, if Kyle can force the issue and keep Witten home, expect the rest of the D-Line to tee off asnd send Romo to the hospital.

Defense – One thing you can take to the bank, no Ryan defense will ever lack for blitz schemes. Rob Ryan’s is no exception. His defense is both stout against the run and aggressive at getting after the Quarterback. Up front, this no-name defensive line is very good at holding the point of attack and funneling any open holes toward their waiting linebackers. The linebacking corps isn’t great, but it is fast. DeMarcus Ware, in many ways, presents more of a challenge than Jared Allen did last week. Ware routinely moves around in the defense, and has the freedom to choose the weakest link on the offensive line as his point of attack on all obvious passing downs. The result is his sack numbers are through the roof. Sean Lee, in the middle, has outstanding straight line speed, but definitely is not fluid in transition and looks downright slow when having to turn and chase until he gets back to speed again. Marcus Spears made a late appearance for the Cowboys and looks poised to re-emerge as an alternate sack threat. The Cowboys secondary could be vulnerable this week. Both starting corners, Newman and Jenkins, left the game on Monday night at various points with nagging injuries and it remains to be seen what their status will be for the coming week. Both could have their hands full, even at full speed, with our receivers.

Lions on Offense – Expect Stafford to get sacked a couple of times in this game. It is going to happen. You can expect about 5-10 matchups of Ware on Backus one-on-one, and Ware on Cherilus/Hilliard one-on-one throughout the game. He’ll get through a couple of times, but as long as Stafford bounces back up, it won’t be the end of the world and just needs to be part of the game that the Lions will have to deal with. Expect Linehan to call 10-12 token rushing plays, but don’t expect more than twenty yards rushing for the game. Expect a few screens and quick hitters to Burleson to keep the Cowboys from getting too aggressive. The Lions can really make the Cowboys pay, when they have the time, by working Scheffler in the twenty five yard middle range of the field, and on almost any pass thrown in Calvin Johnson’s direction. Expect to see a lot of Maurice Morris in this game to try and pick up blitzes, and don’t expect them to try to get extravagant at keeping Pettigrew in to block, as Ware will just line up where he isn’t anyways.
Special teams – The Lions could have a real advantage here. Cowboys kick off specialist David Buehler is injured, and rookie field goal specialist Bailey doesn’t have the strongest leg to reach the end zone on most kicks. For the first time this season, return man extraordinaire Stefan Logan should be turned loose.

Overall, this is a very winnable game for the Lions, but expect the Cowboys to keep it close.
Final Score prediction : Lions 27 – Cowboys 26