The Weekend Spotlight - Week 4 Edition, 2011 - Follow Up Post #2

#59 Bobby Carpenter plays hero for the Lions, as he returns a Tony Romo interception 34 yards for a TD in the 3rd quarter yesterday.  This was Romo's 1st INT of the day, and proved to be the momentum shift that the Lions needed.

I want to start off, once again, by stating the obvious; you win some, you lose some, and you always hope to win more than you lose.  This will be my second Weekend Spotlight follow-up post of the season, and I will be revisiting my pre-game predictions and comments for the Lions vs Cowboys game yesterday.  Once again, I am riding a big high still, as I write this, due to the fact that the Lions overcame a 24 point deficit in an amazing come from behind victory yesterday.  The Cowboys led the Lions by a score of 20-3 at halftime, and they quickly made it 27-3 on the first possession of the second half.  The Cowboys, much like the Vikings the week before, had completely dominated the Lions in every aspect up to that point.  Again however, as we all know, the Lions ROARED back for the second come from behind victory in as many weeks, taking their record to 4-0 with 3 of the 4 victories on the road, which is an NFL record.  It is also the first start 4-0 in Lion's franchise history which includes 3 wins on the road.

The Lions are now riding an NFL high 8 game winning streak, dating back to the last 4 games of the regular season last year, and they have also won 5 straight games on the road, which is also a franchise record.  Like I noted last week, it is obvious that the Lions still have a lot to work on if they hope not only to beat some of the remaining teams on their regular season schedule, but also if they have any hopes of advancing if they make the playoffs.  The biggest thing I took away from this game, much like last week, was the fact that this Lion's team is ALL heart and NO quit.  They never give up, and even if we had lost the game yesterday we could have been proud of this fact.  This is one thing each and every team they face will know...THESE Detroit Lions WILL play a full 60 minutes, and if we let up they will make us pay!

I believe in the idea that the 2011 Detroit Lions can beat any team they have left on their schedule, and the evident lack of quit, which they have clearly shown in the last two games, only stands as testament to that very possibility.  It is a very exciting time to be a Detroit Lion's fan, and it is sweet redemption for all of us who have never given up on them.  All of that aside, I am here to recap my weekly post and talk about the things that I predicted before the game, so without further adieu, I present you with the follow-up to my WS W4E, which will begin after the jump...

Let's get right down to it.  Jumping past the beginning of my post, and all of the preliminary facts and stats, the first statements of opinion came following the examination of the early injury reports for both teams, when I said the following:

It becomes obvious, upon examination of the early injury reports, that the Lions are quite a bit more banged up than the Cowboys.  The Lions had 9 players that did not practice on Wednesday, 5 that were limited, and one player (Matthew Stafford) listed on the injury report that was able to practice in full.  The Cowboys, on the other hand, had 5 players that did not practice, 3 limited, and 4 listed players that practiced in full.  Once again I must stress that it is not uncommon at all for players with injuries to be held out of practice on Wednesdays for precautionary reasons.  As has been the case in the past, most of the players who did not practice on Wednesday will likely practice later in the week, and then play on Sunday or Monday.  That said, it is pretty difficult for me to say who will and will not play, until at least Friday's injury report comes out.  However, I will predict that Aaron Berry, Nick Fairley, and Rashied Davis all sit out this week, and that David Buehler will be the only scratch for the Cowboys.  I see no real advantage on either side, pertaining to injuries and subsequent matchup changes.  **In breaking news, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin both missed practice again today, and both are questionable to play on Sunday...but I still bet they play.  Dockery, Hatcher, Scandrick, and Buehler also DNP...so it is possible that the Cowboys could be without a few of their starters come Sunday, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Well...not much of this was correct.  The facts about the early injury reports, and even the updates themselves were right, but I was wrong in saying that the Lions were more banged up than the Cowboys.  In fact, the injuries may have been more significant for Dallas than they were for Detroit, considering that Miles Austin did not play.  However his replacement, Laurent Robinson, ended up being the leading receiver for the Cowboys in the game, so I was right in saying that there would be no advantage or disadvantage for either team.  I was also errant in my prediction that David Buehler would be the only scratch for Dallas, as Miles Austin, Jason Hatcher, David Buehler, Orlando Scandrick, and Derrick Dockery were all out for the game.

Moving on, the next thing I said was this:

Romo to Witten connection from beating us, and getting to Tony Romo early and often with the pass rush.  As usual, I believe the secondary keys for the Lions will be to execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties, and control the time of possession.  For the Cowboys, I believe they will win this game if they can stop our pass rush, effectively run the ball, and beat our defense with passes to Witten.  The Lions are not going to be able to afford to let this team control the first half, like they did against the Vikings last week, because the Cowboys are not a team that fades away in the second half.  However, even in an offensive shootout I believe the Lions will win this game as long as they give Matthew Stafford time to throw the ball.

I believe I was correct in saying that injuries would have no significant effect on the outcome of the game.  I later stated that I felt the Cowboys would win the game if they could stop our pass rush, effectively run the ball, and beat our defense with passes to Witten.  When Dallas DID do all of those things in the first half, they were killing us, and it certainly looked very bad for the Lions.  The Lions only sacked Tony Romo once in the entire game, and their offensive line did an outstanding job, especially in the first half, at containing our front 4. They were also doing a good job of running the ball in the first half, and they even made several passes to Jason Witten, the worst of which actually came in the beginning of the 2nd half, when Romo hit Witten in the back of the endzone to take a 27-3 lead.  Fortunately for the Lions, this was the last time the Cowboys would see the end zone in the game.

As for the Lions, I said that their ultimate keys to victory were to protect Matthew Stafford, stop Felix Jones from beating us, stop the Romo to Witten connection from beating us, and getting to Tony Romo early and often with the pass rush.  The Lions DID protect Matthew Stafford VERY well against the Cowboys.  In fact, they did not allow ONE sack by Dallas, who was the league leader in sacks coming into the game.  They also stopped Felix Jones from beating them, as he only rushed for 57 yards on 16 carries and added 5 receptions for 19 yards.  Jason Witten managed to catch 8 passes for 94 yards and a TD, but I still call that a victory for the Lions, since they did not allow him to be the main weapon for the Cowboys yesterday.  Perhaps the biggest reason for the 24 point deficit by the beginning of the second half, was the fact that the Lions DID NOT get to Tony Romo early, and definitely not often.  The Lions managed just one sack on Tony Romo, and that sack came from Willie Young, late in the game.

In reality, the primary weapon for the Cowboys early on was Dez Bryant, who had 2 first half TDs and was making Chris Houston look like a little kid playing Pop Warner.  Some people want to defend him of course, since he came back in the 2nd half and had a pick 6, even going so far as to say that anyone who says that Houston's play was subpar doesn't know football (I say open your eyes and look in the mirror).  Houston and Wright both were repeatedly beaten in the first half, and did not tighten up until after adjustments were made at halftime.  Even then, the Cowboys marched down the field and scored, to open the 2nd half.  If not for the complete meltdown by the choke artist known as Tony Romo, I do not believe anyone would be happy with our corners at all.  Just the fact that Laurent Robinson was able to gain 116 yards on 7 catches is enough evidence for me to say that Houston and Wright leave something to be desired in our secondary.  The Lions pulled out the win in the end though, and both Houston and Wright made solid contributions to that effect, so all is well that ends well.

Next came my picks for key players:

Offensively for the Lions, I believe the key player this week (outside of the entire offensive line) will be Nate Burleson.  Calvin Johnson will get his 2 TDs, and possibly even surpass 100 yards receiving, but the key to the Lions effectively moving the ball down the field and controlling the clock will be on short passes to Burleson.  I do not see Titus Young being a huge factor this week, even though he will likely get 2-3 catches and a decent number of yards.  I would say that Jahvid Best will be the key player this week, but I have yet to see the Lions really utilize him, this year, in a manner like that of the game vs the Eagles last year.  I also believe that the Cowboys will be ready for the screens and dumpoffs to Best, so unless the Lions go to him more than anyone else in the game, I do not see him being the main weapon of attack.  I also do not believe that Tony Scheffler or Brandon Pettigrew will see the same sort of success this week as Pettigrew saw last week, mainly because I believe the Cowboys have a better set of coverage linebackers, and because I think our TEs are going to be needed more for blocking than anything else this time around.  My feeling is that Nate Burleson will be the main weapon of choice for Matthew Stafford this week, and I believe his ability to gain yards after the catch, in space, will be KEY to the Lion's success on offense.  With Nate making quick and effective gains on a regular basis, it will force the Dallas defense to play underneath more often, which is when we will have our chances to beat them deep.

Needless to say, I missed on my pick for the key player on the Lion's offense yesterday.  Nate Burleson only managed to haul in 2 catches for 16 yards, and he had a bad drop to go along with it.  However, Calvin Johnson DID get his 2 TD catches, and he almost surpassed 100 yards receiving (96).  Revisiting my secondary keys to a Lion victory, the Lions did not control the time of possession or avoid the senseless penalties, and they struggled mightily to execute on offense in the first half (and at times in the second half).  Fortunately I believe the time of possession issues all came from the nervous play of Matthew Stafford, and the subsequent lack of execution on the part of the Lion offense in the first half of the game yesterday, and not from a lack of short, ball control type passes.  Burleson just was not the guy that handled a majority of those passes, and rather it was once again Brandon Pettigrew and Titus Young.  Young was not a huge factor, and he did only get 3 catches for 41 yards, but he was an integral part of the comeback along with Pettigrew and his 6 catches for 64 yards, whereas Nate Burleson was well contained for the entire game.  The Cowboys WERE ready for the short dumpoffs and screens to Jahvid Best, but he still managed to put together 70 yards from scrimmage.  He wasn't the main weapon, or the key player, but he made a solid contribution.

There is no doubt in my mind that Calvin Johnson and the entire Lion's O-line were the KEY players to victory in this game.  Hindsight is always 20-20.  And with that, let's revisit my defensive key pick.

I am much more worried about the matchup between Chris Houston and Dez Bryant.Chris Houston is going to have to play bigger and faster than his stature suggests, and in my mind HE is going to be the KEY player on defense for a Lions victory this week (if Bryant plays...if not, then the corner matched up on Miles Austin would be my pick, if Austin plays).

Well, Dez Bryant DID play, and he did score a TD on Chris Houston.  He scored the other one on Eric Wright, so at least we can't blame Houston for all of the damage done by Dez Bryant.  That said, Laurent Robinson had a field day against Houston and Wright yesterday, as did Micheal Jenkins the week before.  Chris Houston came up BIG in the second half though, making a one handed interception and taking it 56 yard to the HOUSE to bring the Lions within 2 scores of taking the lead.  His interception came on the drive immediately after the one that Bobby Carpenter made his pick 6, and it was another huge boost to the already building momentum that the Lions were creating.  Once again though, I feel that Stephen Tulloch was the KEY player to victory on the Lions defense this week, as he racked up 12 tackles and hauled in Tony Romo's 3rd INT of the game with 4:22 left in the 4th quarter.  Tulloch's INT set the Lions up for the drive that led to the go ahead, and eventually game winning, TD, and it was a thing of absolute beauty because it was 20 yards downfield in coverage on Jason Witten, over the deep middle.  Tulloch mirrored Witten on the play, and was in perfect position to make the INT when Romo threw the ball, seemingly right to him.

From what I have already talked about, I think it is clear that the key offensive players for the Cowboys will be Tony Romo, Jason Witten, and Dez Bryant.  Felix Jones could enter that mix as well, depending on how our run defense goes this week.  Just like it was vs the Vikings, the Lions absolutely MUST stop one aspect or the other of the Cowboy attack.  If they fail to stop the run, while also failing to stop the passing game, then  I think this game could end up going either way, as it will be very close.  If the Lions can manage to either stop Felix Jones and the Cowboy running game, or stop Romo and the passing offense, then I believe the Lions will win hands down.  If, and only if, they can stop both aspects of the Cowboy offense, then this game could easily be a blowout victory for the Lions.  However, my gut instinct says it will be a close game and that the Lions will give up at least 300 yards of total offense.

The Lions DID stop the run game of the Cowboys from beating them, even though they allowed 113 net rushing yards.  The run game for Dallas was a relative non-factor, but the Lions did not win "hands down".  Instead the Lions allowed the Cowboys to put up 434 net total yards on them, which was the most they have allowed all season to any team, and they had to pull off a miracle come from behind victory to win the game.

Defensively for Dallas, their key player is DeMarcus Ware.  Ware already has 5 sacks in just 3 games, and he is the guy who will pose the greatest threat to Matthew Stafford and the Lion's passing game.  Outside of Ware, MOLB Sean Lee has been a tackling machine for Dallas so far this year.  The Cowboys run a 3-4 defense, and they blitz their linebackers in a number of different ways, so both of their OLBs are always a threat to get to the opposing QB, as they have shown with the 8 combined sacks in 3 games from Ware and Anthony Spencer.  They also have depth players that are capable of solid pass rushing, as backup LE Jason Hatcher has recorded 2 sacks, while backup FS Danny McCray and backup SLB Victor Butler have 1 sack each.  The only other regular starter that has a sack for Dallas is Jay Ratliff, the nose tackle, with 1.  Besides being a tackling machine, Sean Lee has also shown his prowess in pass coverage, with 2 INTS.  Backup RCB Alan Ball has the only other INT for the Cowboys so far.

All in all the Lions did just enough to stop all of the key players for Dallas, most notably DeMarcus Ware.  Ware, who was among the top 3 individual sack leaders in the NFL coming into this game, did not record a sack against Matthew Stafford.  Sean Lee made a few nice plays too, but overall his 4 tackles did not change anything.

I predict that the Lions will win this game, and that the score will be just over 40 points once again.  Detroit 24 - Dallas 17.    

The only thing I got right here was that the Lions would win.  I am not happy with the outcome of my predictions for this game, but I promise to try and do better next time.  The final score of this game was 34-30 Detroit, and that is the end of this week's follow-up post!  BRING ON THE BEARS AND THE LIONS ON MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL NEXT WEEK!!  Until then Lion's fans, this has been KDawg with the WS W4E follow-up.  DOWN THE FIELD AND GAIN, A LION VICTORY!!  GOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOONS!