The Weekend Spotlight - Week 6 Edition, 2011

#55 Stephen Tulloch celebrates after making a big play on Monday Night Football last week.

Welcome back ladies and gentlemen, to the week 6 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  I am your host, KDawg.  I apologize for the late nature of this post, but life happened and I got busy.  That said, at least I will be able to provide you with up to date information related to injuries etc.  This installment of your weekly WS will preview the matchup between the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers, which will be played at home, in Detroit, MI, at Ford Field tomorrow.  Coming off of their 9th regular season win in a row, the Lions are now 5-0!  I know one thing is certain, these Lions have me very excited, and judging by the awesome display of vocal noise by the fans last Monday night, which proved to be an excellent advantage for the Lion's defense, I think most Lion's fans would agree.  With 5 weeks of the regular season already under our belts, I will once again reveal to you who I believe the key players will be, on the Lion's offense and defense, for another Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats and a prediction at the end.  Unlike many people out there that are talking about how the 49ers are the team that will hand the Lions their first loss of the season, I do not believe they are any better than Dallas, or even Minnesota and Chicago.  The 49ers are a team that plays relatively mistake free football however, and as such the Lions will need to also be on their best behavior on Sunday.  That said, I believe that VICTORY can still be ours this week, and I will tell you why and how as the WS W6E begins...after the jump.

THE SKINNY:
As previously stated, the Detroit Lions are going into week 6 of the regular season with an UNDEFEATED record of 5-0.  The win against the Bears on MNF earlier this week was huge for the Lions, both mentally and for their standing within the division.  Once again the Lions were behind on the scoreboard at halftime against Chicago, but this time it was only by 3 points and not 20+.  That was a victory in itself in my opinion.  I also feel that statistically the Bear's defense is a lot worse that it is in reality, and I believe that can be attributed to the fact that they have already faced FIVE teams that have either been producing excellent numbers on offense during this season, or who have done so in the very recent past.  The Bears have faced the Falcons, Saints, Packers, Panthers, and the Lions, so even though their defensive statistics may suggest that they have a terrible defense, I think you also have to look at who they have played, and how GOOD those offenses are.  If we are judging solely based on statistics, then surely you could say that San Francisco has a better defense than Chicago.  However I feel that the Bear's defense is very much underrated at this point, due to the nature of the offenses they have had to face, and that they are actually SUPERIOR to the 49ers on defense in reality.  This is just one example, as I also feel that the Vikings and Cowboys field a defense that is superior to that of San Francisco's.

The Bears got after Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but the Packer offense just overwhelmed them in the end, much like New Orleans, Carolina, and Detroit. 

The 49ers are now 4-1 on the season.  They have faced the Seahawks, Cowboys, Bengals, Eagles, and Buccaneers.  They seemingly hammered Seattle in week 1, after scoring 16 and shutting the Hawks out in the first half, but in reality Ted Ginn Jr's performance late in the 4th quarter is what made it look like a blowout.  The 49ers led 19-17 with 3:56 to go in the game, when Ginn Jr ran back a kickoff for a 102 yard TD.  On the very next possession Seattle went 3 and out, and were forced to punt, and Ginn Jr returned that punt 55 yards for a TD.  All of a sudden it was 33-17 49ers, and that was how it ended.  San Francisco's offense was average at best during this game, as Alex smith passed for just 124 yards (and a rushing TD) while Frank Gore rushed for 59 yards on 22 carries.  They lost a very close game to Dallas in week 2, by a FG, in the only game that Dallas has played well during the second half this season.  Again, their offense was rather pathetic as Smith passed for 179 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT, while Gore only rushed for 47 yards and a TD on 20 carries.

They responded in week 3 by squeaking out a 5 point win versus the Bengals (13-8).  As usual their offense was not all that spectacular, as Alex Smith passed for 201 yards (8 for 114 to Vernon Davis) and Frank Gore rushed for just 42 yards on 17 carries (Kendall Hunter scored their only TD, on a 7 yard run).  In week 4, down 20-3 at halftime, the 49ers put together 3 TD scoring drives in the 2nd half, while the Eagles melted down once again and gave them the game.  The stats from this game FINALLY makes San Francisco look like they have an offense, as Alex Smith passed for 291 yards and 2 TDs, while Gore rushed for 127 yards and a TD on 15 carries.  However if you look at their defensive performance, they allowed Mike Vick to pass for 416 yards and 2 TDs, while also rushing for 75 yards.  The reason they won is not because they are unstoppable, but rather because Philadelphia indescribably has had a rather penetrable defense this season, and because their rookie kicker missed two field goals (39 and 33) in the 4th quarter.    In week 5, San Fran smashed the Buccaneers 48-3 in a game storied by Tampa Bay turnovers and good field position for the 49ers.  Alex Smith threw 3 TD passes (2 to Vernon Davis and 1 to Delanie Walker (both TEs)), but only managed 170 yards while Frank Gore rushed for 125 yards and a TD on 20 carries.  Perhaps this is where all of the talk came from suddenly, as the Lions only managed to beat Tampa Bay 27-20, but I do not see anything overly impressive from what San Francisco has done thus far.  In fact, their 4-1 record and their defense are the only things I am even remotely impressed with.

Seriously, the 49ers offense is currently ranked 27th in the league overall, averaging just 300.2 ypg.  They field the 29th ranked passing offense, and the 12th ranked rushing offense.  The Lions have faced better teams in EVERY single category, yet there are still people out there predicting a win by San Francisco versus Detroit?  Our very own TCLion had this to say about the game, before he had to leave for work in Australia for the next 6 weeks:

I am going to go on record with this, though it pains me to do so , and I pray that I'm wrong. Please work this into a post if you can that this is my prediction. The 49ers are going to win this Sunday. Gore is going to rip off a few runs with 1 TD. Smith will throw for 220 and 2 TD's, one to Davis and one to Morgan. They will win by a final score of 27-24. They will do enough to win, but nothing spectacular. In the end it will be the Lions beating themselves. There will be more penalties, another first half hole, only this time the clock will run out on them. They are coming off an emotionally draining win off a division rival and working on a short week. The carpet ride ends here. This is my prediction, I so hope I'm wrong. I hope this is the part of me talking that can't believe this can continue and nothing more.

Hey...I believe in the any given Sunday mantra, but let's be real.  To tell you the truth, it really pisses me off that any Lions fan, let alone my best friend, could say something like this.  The Detroit Lions are currently ranked 10th overall for total offense.  This is better than any team San Francisco has faced, with the exception of Philadelphia.  The 49ers couldn't stop Vick, so what makes anyone think they can stop Stafford?  Detroit's offensive line is SUPERIOR to every team San Francisco has faced, and we all know what happens when Stafford is given time to throw the ball.  The Lions field the 7th best passing offense in the league, and that is better than every team San Francisco has faced except for Dallas.  Dallas beat them...but Detroit won't?  I fail to see the logic.  The Lions field the 24th ranked rushing offense, which is worse than Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Cincinnatti, but better than Dallas (who beat SF) and Seattle.

What does San Francisco have?  The 12th ranked rushing offense and the 29th ranked passing offense?  The Lions already beat 2 teams (Minnesota and Kansas City) with better rushing offenses, and 3 teams (Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Dallas) with better passing offenses!  Maybe it is their defense?  The 49ers field a very similar defense to the Lions, ranked 13th overall in total yards, 23rd against the pass (way worse than the Lions), and 4th against the run (way better than the Lions).  Unfortunately for them, their weaknesses play right into our strengths on both sides of the ball, not to mention the fact that the Lions have already beaten Dallas (who has the best run defense in the NFL) and Minnesota (who is tied for 4th best run defense with SF).  Only the Vikings and Bears, of the teams Detroit has faced, are worse (statistically) than the 49ers against the pass.  It doesn't matter if they stop us from running, because we are a team built to pass the ball.  They can stack the box all they want, because we will beat them in the air all day long.  Is their pass rush any better than any other team we have faced thus far?  Minnesota and Dallas both have more sacks, and San Francisco has just 1 sack more than Tampa Bay, 2 more than Chicago, and 6 more than Kansas City.  The Lions have the 3rd best ranked offensive line in the NFL currently, in terms of sacks allowed, as they have allowed just 6 sacks on Stafford, and they are tied for 12th best in QB hits allowed, with just 23.  I don't see San Francisco's defense disrupting our passing game any more than anybody else has, and I certainly don't see them beating the Lions this weekend.

With that, let's take a quick look at the team injury reports for the week, and see who will and will not be playing on Sunday:

Detroit Lions Week 6 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
CB	Aaron Berry	Groin	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
S	Erik Coleman	Ankle	DNP	Out/IR	Out/IR	Out
WR	Rashied Davis	Foot	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
LB	Justin Durant	Concussion	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
TE	Tony Scheffler	Concussion	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
DE	Cliff Avril	Elbow	LP	LP	FP	Probable
S	Louis Delmas	Abdomen	LP	LP	LP	Probable
T	Jason Fox	Foot	LP	LP	LP	Questionable
S	Vincent Fuller	Elbow	LP	DNP	DNP	Out
LB	Doug Hogue	Hamstring	LP	LP	LP	Probable
DE	Lawrence Jackson	Hamstring	LP	LP	LP	Probable
S	Amari Spievey	Hamstring	LP	LP	LP	Questionable
LB	Stephen Tulloch	Ankle	LP	FP	FP	Probable
LB	DeAndre Levy	Knee	FP	FP	FP	Probable

San Francisco 49ers Week 6 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
CB	Tramaine Brock	Hand	Out	Out	Out	Out
WR	Braylon Edwards	Knee	Out	Out	Out	Out
RB	Moran Norris	Fibula	Out	Out	Out	Out
G	Mike Iupati	Knee	DNP	LP	LP	Probable
LB	Navorro Bowman	Neck	LP	FP	FP	Probable
WR	Michael Crabtree	Feet	LP	LP	LP	Probable
S	Dashon Goldson	Knee	LP	LP	LP	Probable
G	Adam Synder	Forearm	LP	LP	LP	Probable
DT	Isaac Sopoaga	Infection	LP	LP	LP	Probable
CB	Shawntae Spencer	Toe	LP	LP	LP	Probable
WR	Ted Ginn	Finger	FP	FP	FP	Probable

 Well, it is clear to me that the Lions are a lot more banged up than the 49ers, but it's not as bad as it looks.  Last week the Lions were without Amari Spievey, and John Wendling stepped in nicely for him.  They were also without Justin Durant, but Bobby Carpenter has been nothing short of excellent in place of him.  Really, those are the 2 most significant things I take away from these injury reports.  Erik Coleman is out, and the guy they signed to replace him is also out for the game, but again we have Wendling, and that is no different than last week.  Aaron Berry is questionable, but he has fallen to 5th on the depth chart behind Alphonso Smith and Brandon McDonald anyway.  Tony Scheffler is out with a concussion, but Will Heller is more than capable of replacing him as well.  The rest of the players listed as questionable or out were also questionable or out last week, so I see no significant advantage for the 49ers due to injuries to the Lions.  On the other hand, the 49ers will be without their 4th string RB (lol), and Braylon Edwards (who has done pretty close to nothing good in SF).  Their most significant injury is to Tremain Brock, who is their #3 corner and also out for the game.  This means we will see more of Shawntee Spencer and Chris Culliver in nickle and dime packages.  There is no significant advantage or disadvantage either way.

With all of that in mind, once again I say that injuries will not alter or effect the ultimate outcome of the game in any direction.  I believe the ultimate keys to victory for the Lions this week will be very similar to what they were last week.  The Lions must protect Matthew Stafford and allow him time to throw, the defensive line must be aggressive and put constant pressure on Alex Smith (who will fold handily under it), the defense must contain Frank Gore and keep him under 100 yards (and hopefully scoreless), and the linebackers must do a good job in pass coverage against Delanie Walker and Vernon Davis.  The secondary keys to victory have not changed (execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties, and control the time of possession).  The 49ers could win this game if they can stop our pass rush, beat us up on the ground with Frank Gore, and somehow miraculously stop our passing offense, while also stopping Jahvid Best from establishing a running game.  Somehow I have serious doubts that they can do any of those things, and I am definitely not one of the people you will hear saying that the Lions will lose their first game this week.  In fact, I can't see them losing this one either.

KEY PLAYERS:
Offensively for the Lions, I believe the key player this week will be Calvin Johnson.  The mismatches he will create against the San Francisco secondary are going to be key, and I don't believe they have anyone who can stop him.  If the 49ers are forced to double Megatron all day, it will put a lot of pressure on their safeties to try stopping Brandon Pettigrew.  I also see Grew coming up big this week, and if they start dropping linebackers to cover him, while also doubling CJ, then it will open them wide underneath for guys like Nate Burleson, Titus Young, Will Heller, and Jahvid Best.  The pass could also set up the run, and we could see Jahvid Best gash this 4th ranked rushing defense for some big gains as long as we are making them over compensate to stop the pass.  Really there is nothing more to say about this, other than get the ball to Calvin early, get it to him often, and let him carry us to victory.

On defense, I believe the key player this week will be Bobby Carpenter.  Vernon Davis is arguably the most athletic and best pass catching TE in the NFL.  When I think of Jason Witten vs Vernon Davis, I think "wash".  Bobby Carpenter is the best pass covering linebacker the Lions have, and he is going to have to be on his A game against Vernon Davis this week.  Even then, Delanie Walker is also a threat for the 49ers, so the other linebackers and the safeties are going to have to work together to contain these two guys.  Jason Witten had 8 catches for 94 yards and a TD against the Lions in week 4, so I would not be surprised to see a similar game from Davis.  It's the rare 15+ catches and 150+ yards and 2+ TDs from Davis that I do not want to see, and I feel that Bobby Carpenter will be the key to stopping him.  Frank Gore will be the primary concern for most of the front 7, and since he is not really known for beating teams with his speed to the outside, I am not overly concerned that he will do any better than Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Felix Jones, or LeGarrette Blount did against us, and perhaps he will do less than a couple of them did.

Since I was a bit more long winded up above, I am going to skip the recap of key players for San Francisco.  If you are reading this post, you'll already know who I think their key players are on offense.  On defense, they are Aldon Smith, Justin Smith, Ray McDonald, and Patrick Willis (usually...but not so much this year).

PREDICTION:
My prediction is that the Lions will win this game definitively, and silence all of the naysayers and doubters.  LIONS win 24-10.

I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 6 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!