The Weekend Spotlight - Week 5 Edition, 2011 - Follow Up Post #3

Jahvid Best takes off on an 88 yard TD, enroute to a career day, against the Bears on Monday Night Football!

Welcome back to another Weekend Spotlight follow up post!  I can't help myself this time...you win some, and you lose some, but sometimes you win BIG!  The win for the Lions on Monday Night Football against the Chicago Bears, taking their record to 5-0 while also beating a division rival, is nothing short of BIG.  In fact, it is HUGE!  Not only did the Lions take it to the Bears on national TV, but they also proved undeniably that they are FOR REAL.  Nobody can question this fact now, and I get the distinct feeling that nobody want to face the RED HOT Detroit Lions!

I am still nearly speechless, 24 hours after the fact, and the game just keeps replaying over and over in my mind.  I never claimed to be any sort of football expert, a guru, or anything of the sort...just an avid Lion's fanatic who has a passion for writing about his favorite team.  However, I have to say that I hit the nail on the head on multiple key points in my weekly series post, which also makes me pretty happy.  The Lions have extended their winning streak to an NFL leading 9 regular season games in a row!  Some of you Lion fans were probably worried at halftime of the Monday night game, perhaps even justifiably so, but the overwhelming thoughts running through my mind at that point were; 1) At least it's not down 20, 2) These Lions never give up, and 3) We're going to win this game.

Please recall, if you will, what I said in last weeks follow up post.  "They never give up, and even if we had lost the game yesterday we could have been proud of this fact.  This is one thing each and every team they face will know...THESE Detroit Lions WILL play a full 60 minutes, and if we let up they will make us pay!"  What did we see happen last night?  The Lions never gave up, they played a full 60 minutes of football, and even though the Bears dominated the time of possession they made the mistake of letting up...and the Lions made them pay!  With the way this team has played through the first 5 weeks of the regular season, I don't think anyone can say that they are ever out of a game.  I also STILL believe that these Detroit Lions can win against ANY team in the NFL at this point, not to mention the rest of the teams they will face on their schedule.  Being a life long Lion's fan, I have never felt so rewarded and so confident as I do right now.  That said, I am here once again to recap my weekly post and talk about the things that I predicted before the game.  I hereby present you with the WS W5E follow-up, which begins after the jump...

I want to start off this follow-up by skipping past the background story, and some of the statistical facts that I used to formulate my opinions and predictions, and getting right to the meat and potatoes of my post.  The following is the first set of topics that I would like to recall for you, and discuss:

Is anyone noticing the very obvious trends here?  1) Jay Cutler has been sacked 14 times over the span of 4 games, and the last game he barely threw the ball at all, limiting sack opportunities.  If calculated over a full 16 games, Cutler is on track to be sacked 56 times this season!  2) Chicago will run the ball if they are finding success on the ground.  If that wasn't clear after week 4, then I don't know what clear is.  3) When the Bears can't run, or when they expect it to be tough to run, they will air it out, but most of the passes will be dink and dunk, west coast style throws, to Matt Forte.  4) Even though Matt Forte is their primary weapon, the Bears like to spread the ball around to multiple receivers in an attempt to beat teams underneath.  5) The Bears ONLY deep threat is Johnny Knox, and his longest reception of the year was a 40 yard catch against the Packers, which did not go for a TD.

Maybe these trends are a statement of the obvious for some of my readers, but I want to talk a little bit about them anyway, for those who may not have thought they were so obvious.  I'm going to keep it short and simple, by the corresponding numbers.  1) The Bears offensive line was not very good at all.  The Lions added 3 sacks to the total number of sacks allowed by Chicago, and they had to pull Frank Omiyale because he could not contain Cliff Avril at all.  2) The Bears DID find success at running the ball against the Lions, and they DID therefore run the ball...to the tune of 116 yards on 22 carries by Matt Forte.  3) On the occasions that the Lions did stiffen up against the run, the Bears DID try to air it out, but their longest pass of the day went to Sam Hurd, who hauled in a 28 yard grab on a SHORT pass to the right (dink and dunk...all YAC).  4) Matt Forte was once again the primary weapon for Chicago, rushing for 116 yards and catching 4 passes for 35 yards, but just as advertised the Bears DID spread the ball around to TEN different receivers in a series of MAD attempts to beat the Lions underneath.  Needless to say, they were not overly successful.  5) Johnny Knox, the Bears "deep threat", had 2 catches for 17 yards.  For anyone who didn't know, you would think that I have seen a few Bear's games...if THAT wasn't obvious.

Here's the next area I would like to recall for you:

With all of that in mind, I still do not see any of the reported injuries as being significant enough to alter the outcome of this game.  I believe that the ultimate keys to victory for the Lions this week will be protecting Matthew Stafford (as always), getting to Jay Cutler early, often, and consistently, and stopping Matt Forte and the west coast offense from beating us with the short passing game.  The secondary keys to victory for the Lions are the same as always; execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties, and control the time of possession.  For the Bears, their keys to victory would be to keep Jay Cutler on his feet, establish a solid running game with Forte, stop our pass rush from disrupting their offense, and exploiting the weaknesses in our secondary.  My hope is to see the Lions jump on the Bears early, and to see them run away with this game.  If the pass rush has success, and Stafford has time to throw, I can't see the Lions losing this one.

Well, even though the injury situation ended up being in favor of the Bears, it really didn't make any difference.  John Wendling filled in nicely for Amari Spievey.  Aaron Berry didn't do as well, but we can chalk it up to the learning process there.  As far as the ultimate keys to victory for the Lions, they did an outstanding job at protecting Matthew Stafford.  Stafford was sacked just once by the Bears, and it was by Israel Idonije and NOT Julius Peppers.  The Lions also got to Jay Cutler, maybe not early so much, but definitely often and consistently enough to rattle his cage and force him to make mistakes.  The Lions also managed to keep the short passing game in check for the most part, and obviously they did not allow it to beat them.  Kellen Davis (3 catches, 25 yards, 1 TD, 17 long) scored the only TD of the day for Chicago, on one of Cutler's 28 west coast style completions, and Dane Sanzenbacher also caught 6 passes for 64 yards (15 long), but other than that there was not much success to be had for the Bear's passing game.

As for the secondary keys to a Lions victory, this is where I at least partially missed (but luckily these shortcomings didn't mean the difference between a win and a loss, unlike last season and the one before).  The Lions did not avoid the senseless penalties.  In fact they had 12 penalties for 94 yards!  The Lions did not control the time of possession, as Chicago had the ball for 39:03 to Detroit's 20:57, losing the TOP battle by just over 18 minutes!  The Lions DID however execute on offense, specifically in the 2nd and 3rd quarters when they scored 21 points to Chicago's 10.  So how did the Lions overcome these shortcomings, when they would most certainly have lost in years past?  For starters, Chicago also did not avoid the senseless penalties, as they had 14 penalties for 104 yards in a yellow flag filled parade of stupidity.  Secondly, the Bears offense could not execute and they only managed to score 13 points for the entire game.  The Lion's defense shut the Bears out in the first and third quarters!  To their credit, they did manage to win the TOP battle and establish a good running game, but they did not protect Jay Cutler very well at all, they did not stop our pass rush from disrupting their passing game, and they either didn't or couldn't exploit the weaknesses in the Detroit secondary.  While the Lions did not jump on the Bears early or run away with the game, what they did do was play solid defense, stop Devin Hester from beating them, limit Matt Forte's production, and most importantly they protected Matthew Stafford very well and gave him time to throw the ball.  THAT is why the Lions were able to overcome the shortcomings in their game, and came away with another Lion victory.

And now let's take a look back at my picks for key players this week:

Outside of Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus/Corey Hilliard, and their matchups against Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije, I believe that the key player on offense for the Lions this week will be Jahvid Best.  The Bears, whose defense ranks 29th against the pass, have been very susceptible to deep passes by speedy receivers, and also have given up a lot of catches and yards to TEs, so I also expect Titus Young, Nate Burleson, and Brandon Pettigrew to have good games, not to mention Calvin Johnson getting his.  However, the Bears defense has also allowed an average of 124.25 yards per game to opposing running backs, ranking them 23rd against the run.  If the Lions ever wanted to establish the run this season, this may be the best case scenario for them to do so.  If Jahvid Best can get it going on the ground, then there is no way Chicago will win this football game, as their pass defense is swiss cheese and our passing offense is like a bullet from a .44 magnum.  I look for Best to rush for over 100 yards for the first time this season, against Chicago, and he might even pitch in quite a few yards in the passing game if he is properly utilized.

Ladies and gentlemen...Jahvid Best had a CAREER day against the Bears on Monday Night Football!  He did not pitch in much in the way of receiving yards, but boy did he ever come up BIG in the running game!  Best ran for 163 yards on 12 carries, including an amazing 88 yard TD run.  For those of you doing the math, that is 13.58 yards per carry.  For those of you saying, "yeah, but most of it came on the 88 yarder", here's what I can tell you; Even without the 88 yard TD by Jahvid Best, he still would have ran for 75 yards on 11 carries...which works out to 6.82 yards per carry.  This was KEY for the Lions win, because it kept the linebackers honest and allowed Stafford more time to throw the ball on passing downs, because Best had them on their heels all night long!  I was wrong again here, about Titus Young and Nate Burleson having "good" games (as they combined for just 3 catches and 20 yards), but Brandon Pettigrew did end up having another good game (4 catches for 39 yards and a TD) and MAN did Calvin Johnson get his!  Megatron had 5 catches for 130 yards and a TD, and the TD was a 73 yard BOMB from Matthew Stafford!

Defensively, I see DeAndre Levy being the key player this week.  While Stephen Tulloch has been great over the past two games, I believe it will be Levy who makes or breaks us against Matt Forte this week.  If Levy is missing tackles and playing out of position, then we will be in big trouble, but if he is on his game, making solid tackles and playing in position, then Forte will not be running much against the Lions.  The Bears will of course resort to the passing game, and they will try to get Forte the ball that way, but that is when Houston, Wright, Spievey, and Delmas will come into play.  I think that Levy holds the key to whether or not the Bears will be a one dimensional offense this week, and as long as he is doing his job well it will give our defensive line a chance to take Cutler out and make the Bears a zero dimensional offense, especially considering that only the Rams have a worse offensive line than Chicago when it comes to sacks allowed.  I should add that Justin Durant, or Bobby Carpenter, and Stephen Tulloch will also play a big role to this effect, but Levy needs to silence the critics and have a big game.  As long as the linebackers can do their part in stopping the Bears from establishing a run game, then I see a LOT of 3 and outs coming for Chicago on Monday, much to the benefit of the Lions and their offense.

DeAndre Levy proved me right once again this week, as he led the team in tackles with 9 (5 solo) and was seen tackling Matt Forte over and over again during this game!  Matt Forte did break 100 yards rushing, but he was not allowed a single TD and his longest run was 23 yards (away from Levy).  When Chicago tried to pass to Forte, that is when Houston, Wright, Wendling (in place of Spievey), and Delmas were all seen making plays on Forte.  Those 4 players combined for 13 of the Lion's 45 tackles (29%), and Matt Forte was relatively insignificant in the passing game (4 catches for 35 yards).  The Lions did not make the Bear's offense one dimensional, or even zero dimensional however, but what they did was limit their offense in all areas, and that was because of an excellent effort overall by the entire defense.  I still believe DeAndre Levy WAS the key player on the Lion's defense yesterday though, and he really stepped up when we needed him most, but Bobby Carpenter was great in coverage again, Tulloch was good against the pass and solid against the run, the defensive line was very aggressive and excellent against the run, and the secondary did not give up any big plays.

My prediction is that the Lions will make the Bears pay for last year's losses.  Lions WIN 37-20.

Hahaha...I was off on the final score...what am I?  Some kind of Vegas guru?  The Lions DID win...and that is what matters most...:o)

The final score of this game was 24-13 Detroit, and that is the end of this week's follow-up post!  The Lions will see the San Francisco 49ers at home this week, on Sunday, and I will be posting my next Weekend Spotlight later this week!  Until then Lion's fans, this has been KDawg with the WS W5E follow-up.  DOWN THE FIELD AND GAIN, A LION VICTORY!!  GOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOONS!