The Weekend Spotlight - Week 7 Edition, 2011 - Follow Up Post

Alphonso Smith, back in action, makes a good tackle on Eric Weems.

Welcome back to another Weekend Spotlight follow up post.  Sadly, I have nothing good to report.  I was in attendance for the Lions vs Falcons game last Sunday, and while I had a good time with my friends before and during the game, the Lions lost and put a damper on it all.  To top it all off, the result of the game made me look rather foolish in my weekly predictions, once again.  Because of the fact that I lack the motivation to state anything exciting or clever here, I am just going to get right down to the business of recapping my weekly post, after the jump...

Two weeks in a row...man this crap tastes terrible.

Here was my first notable statements from last week's post:

Statistically speaking, the Lions have only faced 2 teams with a defense worse than Atlanta's, and those two teams also beat Atlanta (Chicago and Tampa Bay).  Atlanta has also struggled on offense this season, ranking just 20th overall statistically.  However, that also means that they will be the 3rd best offense the Lions have faced this season (behind Dallas and Tampa Bay).

Well, clearly that didn't make a damn bit of difference, much to my chagrin.  The Lions continued to struggle on offense, and made Atlanta's previously pathetic defense look pretty good.  The Lions managed just 263 yards of TOTAL offense last Sunday, 101 yards LESS than their current season average yards allowed per game.  The Falcons also put up less than the Lion's current season average yards allowed per game, posting 328 total yards against Detroit (6 yards less than their average allowed).  If there is a bright side to all of this, it can be seen here...our defense was on the field MUCH more than our offense, yet they still battled a full 60 minutes and allowed less total yards than their season average.

Next, after going into a week by week detail of what the Falcons had done against each of their opponents in the first 6 weeks of the season, I stated the following:

Once again, I feel it is pretty clear that if you want to beat Atlanta you have to stop Michael Turner.  The Falcons can also beat you with the pass, but if you force them to throw the ball more often than not then you give yourself a much better chance to force mistakes and turnovers.  If Michael Turner is on a roll, the Falcons will keep going to that well until it is dry, eating up the clock in the process.  If Turner can not get it going, the Falcons will throw the ball all day long.  That is what the Lions need to do.  Force the Falcons to pass, get after Matt Ryan, and let the rest of the defense create turnovers.

The Lions did not allow Turner to score a TD, but still they did not do enough to contain him either.  Turner rushed for 122 yards on 27 carries (averaging 4.52 yards per carry), and while he was not allowed to reach the endzone, he still was able to rip off a 50 yard run and several other back breaking blows against our defense, at the worst possible times.  That said, Turner was not OVERLY effective, but rather he was simply effective enough to keep the Lions from simply pinning their ears back and getting after Matt Ryan.  The Falcons did not need to throw the ball all day long, as suggested they would do IF Turner could not get anything going.  However, when they did pass the ball it was slant after slant and the slant routes just destroyed us all day long.  The Lions did managed to get 3 sacks and 2 interceptions on Matt Ryan, but he was still able to manage the game rather easily, finishing 20 for 34 with 218 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs (59% completions).  When compared to what Matthew Stafford was able to do (15 for 32 with 183 yards and 1 TD...a paltry 47% completions), Matt Ryan looked like a Hall of Famer out there.  If not for Calvin Johnson breaking tackles and running 57 yards for Stafford's only passing TD, he would have finished 14-32 with 126 yards and no TDs (44% completions), and Johnson would have had just 4 catches for 58 yards.



Now let's recall what I said about the injury reports last week:

For the first time this season, I believe their could be some advantages and disadvantages, for both teams, due to injuries.  First of all, the Lions will be without Jahvid Best this week due to his 2nd concussion in 2 months.  That means we will see Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams likely share the load.  Not that either of these guys is a terrible running back, but they are not Jahvid Best, they do not have his speed, and they do not have the home run hitting potential that Best carries.  They will try to grind out yards, and they will likely combine for somewhere around 40-70 yards rushing (I pray I am wrong).  That will play to the advantage of the Atlanta defense, as they will be able to focus more on stopping Calvin Johnson and getting to Matt Stafford, rather than having to worry about getting beat by Jahvid Best.  On the other side of the ball, Julio Jones is listed as doubtful for Atlanta, and their starting C, RG, and LT are all banged up and questionable.  If any combination of those 3 offensive lineman do not play, or if none of them play, it will be a major advantage for our defensive line.  Without Julio Jones Atlanta loses it's number 1 deep threat.  Even though Roddy White can still get it done in that capacity, it will be advantageous to our secondary to be able to shade more to White's side.  John Abraham is also listed as questionable.  If he does not play, it will take a lot of pressure off of Jeff Backus (who got his ass handed to him a number of times last week).  While this may only provide us with a small advantage, we will still have to deal with Ray Edwards (who has been known to wreck the Lions in the past), Corey Peters, Jonathan Babineaux, and Peria Jerry (all of which are pretty solid in the middle).  Abraham's backup is Lawrence Sidbury...I think Backus can handle him solo, which is the small advantage of Stafford not having to worry as much about his blind side.  The rest of the injuries seem pretty inconsequential.

I figured that Morris and Williams would combine for about 40-70 yards rushing.  They actually exceeded my expectations, by combining for 94 yards rushing (50 for Morris on 9 carries and 44 for Williams on 9 carries, for an average of 5.2 yards per carry combined).  I can't believe how many people are talking about how the running game was ineffective against Atlanta, and how they are using that idea as logic for the reason why our offense couldn't get anything going.  There were only THREE teams, which won their games, that had MORE than 30-50 rushing yards over what Morris and Williams produced on Sunday, and I seriously doubt that many of them had an average of 5.2 yards per carry.  While this fact SHOULD have made a BIG difference in the passing game, Atlanta never once stacked the box against us and it did not effect them in any way on defense.  There was a clear lack of respect for our running game, and while everyone in the stadium and at home watching the game probably were screaming for MORE passes to Calvin Johnson, I think the Lions should have run the ball at LEAST another 10-12 times during the game, or until Atlanta was forced to show respect for the running game.  There WAS a running game for the Lions on Sunday, it was averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and it WAS NOT the problem.  The problem was bad accuracy by Stafford, penalties (10 for 84 yards), and piss poor play calling...period.

Julio Jones did not play, and neither did starting LT Sam Baker, for the Falcons.  Jones' absence practically made no difference, as Atlanta had no need to throw the deep pass when the slant was open all day long.  Henry Douglas took one slant 49 yards, and Tony Gonzalez managed a 30 yard grab on a slant of his own.  Roddy White caught 5 different slants and outs for 52 yards, one of which was an 18 yard TD.  So even without the deep threat, Atlanta was able to effectively contain the pass rush AND expose the weaknesses in the middle, and on the edges, of our defense with relative ease.  Once again, even though I felt we may have some advantages due to injury, the injuries really made no difference in the outcome of this game.  John Abraham did play, and on the bright side Jeff Backus did only allow 1 sack.  Corey Peterson and Sean Weatherspoon both had sacks as well, one on Gosder Cherilus (when Scheffler released immediately and didn't chip block at all), and one up the middle on Raiola and Peterman.  Raiola and Peterman were pathetic at run blocking as well, which allowed the Atlanta defense to stop a lot of our runs on 1st down.  Thanks to them, our 2nd and longs became 3rd and longs (mostly), and the majority of third and longs resulted in punts on 4th down (6 punts...12 drives...1 turnover on downs and 1 kneel down before the half, resulting in 4 scoring drives out of 12...3 FGs and 1 lucky TD) and the play calling didn't help matters either.

The last thing I said before choosing key players was this:

With all of that in mind, I believe the ultimate keys to victory for the Lions will be stopping Michael Turner first and foremost, pressuring and sacking Matt Ryan early and often, forcing mistakes and turnovers, and protecting Matthew Stafford so that he has time to throw the ball.  The secondary keys to victory have not changed (execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties, and control the time of possession).  The Lions could be in big trouble if they can not stop the run, or if they can't force Matt Ryan to make mistakes with consistent pressure.  After watching our passing offense flounder last week, and knowing that our running game isn't going to be anything special this week, it makes me worry what will happen if Atlanta comes out firing on all cylinders and takes a significant lead into the half.  What I hope happens, and what I want to see on Sunday, is the Lions stuffing Michael Turner left and right, while also putting Matt Ryan on his back regularly.  If the defense can keep us in the game, at the very least, then the Lions should be able to find ways to win.  If the defense gives Turner room, like they did Gore last week, and if the Lions beat themselves with stupid penalties and mistakes, then it could prove to be a very long and ugly day.

The Lions did not contain Michael Turner, which was their first downfall.  They did pressure and sack Matt Ryan (3 times), and they even forced him to make a couple of mistakes, but the Lions did not capitalize on the turnovers and they did not pressure and sack Ryan consistently enough to make a significant difference.  Stafford was also sacked 3 times, and constantly pressured by Atlanta's defense.  They did what we needed to do, and they won the game.  The Lions did not execute on offense very well at all, they did not avoid the senseless penalties (10 for 84), and the lost the time of possession battle by just under 10 minutes (25:03 to 34:57).  Regardless of all of that, the Lion's defense DID manage to keep them in the game.  However, where we should have found a way to win, we flopped around like a dead fish out of water and squandered almost every opportunity.  Like I said, give Turner room to run and beat yourselves with stupid penalties and mistakes (Logan's fumble, dropped passes, poor play calling etc), and you will be in for a long and ugly day.  That is exactly what happened.

Next came my offensive key player pick of the week:

At the risk of being repetitive, I am going to go with Calvin Johnson as the key player on the Lion's offense again this week.  I believe the Lions will spread the ball to multiple receivers against Atlanta, because their defense in definitely beatable, but I look for CJ to put up huge numbers this week.  If Jeremy Maclin can catch 13 passes for 171 yards and 2 TDs against the Falcons, then certainly Calvin Johnson can post similar numbers.  I believe Burleson, Young, Pettigrew, and Scheffler will also see a fair number of targets (4-6 each), but in the end I believe Megatron will have the most targets, the most catches, the most yards, and the most TDs of any of the Lion's receivers.  I am betting that Stafford will throw the ball between 40-50 times this week, so he will be the secondary key player.  Stafford needs to complete more than 28 passes out of 50, and if he can top 60% completions this week I believe the Lions will win.

Not to beat a dead horse or to state the obvious, but Calvin Johnson WAS the key player for the Lion's on offense, and he did end up with the most targets, most catches, most yards, and most TDs of the Detroit receivers for the game.  However, they were so terrible in almost every other aspect on offense that the fact that Stafford completed passes to 6 different receivers made no difference.  No receiver, other than Megatron, had a catch that was over 9 yards, and the Lion's offense was relatively ineffective as a whole.  I can't believe how Jeckyl and Hyde they have seemed over the last 2 games, as they looked unstoppable in the first 5 games (most of the time).  Calvin Johnson did everything he could to carry his team to victory, but he didn't even come close to what Jeremy Maclin did to the very same defense, which to me is just inexcusable.  Once again, Pettigrew was the only other Lion receiver, other than CJ, to have more than 4 targets.  I also find this to be both discouraging and inexcusable.  What happened to the great coaching adjustments that we saw in the first 5 weeks?  Why didn't they make changes that would have allowed the offense to be more successful?  Why did they ignorantly stick to the game plan when it clearly was NOT working?  Many questions...no answers.

Stafford did not throw the ball 40 times.  He threw it 32 times.  He didn't even come close to 60% passing.  Is it a surprise that we lost, given those facts?

My defensive key player pick, and comments were as follows:

Defensively, my choice for key player this week is the entire front 7.  The front 7 will be tasked with stopping the Falcons #1 offensive threat, Michael Turner, putting pressure on Matt Ryan so that he can't set up for the deep passes, and also making sure that Tony Gonzalez can't beat us.  I can't pick one single person out of the front 7 this week, because all three of those things are equally important.  If I were forced to choose, I would say priority 1 is stopping Turner, and subsequently I would choose from Tulloch, Levy, Durant, Suh, and Williams for a key player.  I would say priority 2 is pressuring Matt Ryan and not allowing him time to set up for deep passes, and subsequently I would choose from Avril, Suh, Williams, and Vanden Bosch for a key player.  That leaves priority 3 being stopping Gonzo from beating us, and subsequently I would choose from Levy, Durant, Delmas, and Spievey for a key player.  In this case, I feel that ALL of these guys are going to have to play a very strong game in order to keep Turner from running all over us, Houston and Wright from getting beat deep all day long, Matt Ryan from picking us apart, and Tony Gonzalez from being the go to guy that beats us.

Sigh...more obvious statements and pointless dead horse beatings.  The front 7 failed to get the job done against Turner.  They failed to consistently pressure and sack Matt Ryan enough to make a significant difference.  They never had a chance to keep Ryan from setting up for the deep passes, because Atlanta never planned to throw it deep and they never even tried to do so.  Tony Gonzalez did not beat us though, but his 5 catches for 62 yards didn't hurt Atlanta at all.  The eventual downfall of the Lions defense in this game was an inability to stop the explosion play by Turner, and piss poor tackling in the open field.  Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers both made plays that should not have happened, and the latter by a rookie to seal the deal and allow Atlanta to go into victory formation to end the game.  3rd and 4, Rodgers goes to the right side and breaks 2 tackles to get the first down.  Time to work on the basics of tackling Detroit, because that was the worst example of wrapping and tackling that I can imagine a professional football player producing.  You get paid big money to do this for a living...so DO IT.  Back to the drawing board...

Lastly, here was my prediction for the game:

My prediction is a shootout.  It will be close, but the Lions will win by a FG, 31-28.

Well, obviously that didn't happen.  Even if the Lions had capitalized on both Atlanta turnovers, and scored TDs each time the kicked a FG, the final score would have been 28-23 Lions.  That said, the Lion's offense was terrible again, and their lack of execution only allowed them to score 16 points versus Atlanta's 23.  I suppose this is not the end of the world, and I do not expect a total collapse of the Lions going forward.  Rather, I expect them to fix the problems and get it going again next week in Denver.  If they continue to play like they did last Sunday though, I could see them losing more games than they will win.  I will continue to hang on to the hope that they do not do a repeat of the 2007 season though, where the Lions got off to an amazing 6-2 start and had everyone talking playoffs, only to lose 7 out of their last 8 games to finish the season 7-9.  No matter what happens, I will still be a Lion's fan and I will still love them.  And with that, comes the end of this week's follow up post.  The Lions will travel to Denver this week, to face the Broncos at Mile High Stadium.  Until then Lion's fans, this has been KDawg with the WS W7E follow-up.  GOOOOO LIOOOOONS!!!