The Lions play the Saints tonight in the Big Sleazy.
The Lions face a tough matchup tonight versus one of the toughest opponents the NFC has to offer, but if they hope to make the playoffs, they have to prove they can play with the big boys. Let's take a look at how the Lions stack up against the Saints, by the numbers, after the jump.....
BY THE NUMBERS - SAINTS OFFENSIVE RANKS
Passing - 1st overall, 324.2 ypg, 1 INT per game, 1.73 sacked per game, 103.7 composite QB rating.
Rushing - 8th overall, 125.5 ypg, 26 attempts pg, 1.09 TD's pg, 2 fumbles for the season.
BY THE NUMBERS - SAINTS DEFENSIVE RANKS
Passing - 27th overall, 253.7 ypg, 1.64 TD's pg, 0.55 INT's pg, 2 Sacks pg, 86.7 composite opponent QB rating.
Rushing - 17th overall, 117.1 ypg, 23.3 attempts pg, 0.73 TD's pg, 0.64 forced fumbles pg.
Looking at the numbers, with a majority of the regular season in the rear-view mirror, it's pretty clear to see that the Saints are an offensive juggernaut, but also have a defensive Achilles heel. As long as they keep scoring points it's seldom a worry for them, and they score a LOT of points, but they give up alot in return. In order to see the complete picture though, I will once again break down the composite stats of all the Saints opponents thus far, versus where the Lions currently rank in the same categories, that we might get a clearer picture of how the Lions stack up quality wise vs. Saints opponents which they have an 8-3 record against.
BY THE NUMBERS SAINTS OPPONENTS COMPOSITE AVERAGES AND RANK VS. LIONS RANKS
Offensive Passing - Saints Opponents 203.2 ypg, 15.5 overall vs. Lions 272.5 6th overall
Offensive Rushing - Saints Opponents 112 ypg, 15th overall vs. Lions 104.3 22nd overall
Defensive Passing - Saints Opponents 236.4 ypg, 19th overall vs. Lions 202.2 6th overall
Defensive Rushing - Saints Opponents 122.4 ypg, 20th overall vs. Lions 127.3 ypg 23rd overall
The Lions rank surprisingly well vs the overall quality of opponent that the Saints have faced thus far. With their surprisingly strong pass defense, the Lions could provide a real challenge, however injuries to Chris Houston and Louis Delmas loom large in the upcoming matchup. The Saints have been beaten by the Packers, Bucaneers, and Rams. The surprising blueprint that the Rams and Bucs put forth is an old one - Run the ball, and stop the run. These are two things the Lions are ill-equipped to do. Let's take a look at the quality of the Lions opponents thus far to complete our look Behind the Numbers.
BY THE NUMBERS - LIONS OPPONENTS COMPOSITE AVERAGES
Offensive Passing - 223.2 ypg, 20th overall
Offensive Rushing - 123.6 ypg, 9th overall
Defensive Passing - 250.2 ypg, 25th overall
Defensive Rushing - 108.5 ypg, 14th overall
The Lions opponents thus far compare very favorably with the Saints in all but one category - Offensive Passing. Without two of their best players in the secondary, the Lions will face an uphill battle to contain the Saints explosive passing attack. While the Lions offensive can hang points on the best defenses, the game the Saints play simply asks their defense just to stop the Lions offense a few times during the game, not all the time. If Kevin Smith can play, and play effectively tonight, the Lions may be able to mimic the ball control blueprint that has beat the Saints twice this year and kept Drew Brees off of the field, but it is a longshot that the Lions alter the offensive attack that works for them just to follow another teams blueprint.
The Saints can be beaten through the air, as Green Bay displayed in the first game, but the Lions will have to play a perfect game in both halves to do it against this team.
Prediction - I hate to say this, and I hope I'm wrong, but here it is. Saints 35 - Lions 28
This has been Behind the Numbers, see you again next week!
Good post bro. Honesty, even in the case of a team that we both love, is not generally easy to come by. You think the Saints will win. I think the Lions have a real chance, if several things occur. However, in view of the injuries piling up against the Lions on defense, and the suspension of Suh, I think your prediction is not only fair, but also perhaps optimistic. That said, I am going to write my post and outline why I think the Lions could win this game.
ReplyDeleteThere's no doubt the Lions stand a good chance, better than I think alot of people give them credit for, that said they have a lot to overcome to beat the odds against a very healthy Saints team. At least we should get treated to another round of how the poor city of New Orleans has fared since Hurricane Katrina, while ignoring how so many of it's dirtbag citizens stole and robbed from the people across the South who opened their homes to them in the aftermath.
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