The Weekend Spotlight - Wildcard Round - Playoff Edition, 2011

SPECIAL PLAYOFF EDITION PIC - I got my authentic Stafford jersey, today, just in time for the playoffs!

Welcome back ladies and gentlemen, to your FIRST Weekend Spotlight playoff edition EVER!!!  I am your host, KDawg (as shown above).  This very special installment of YOUR weekly WS will feature the first playoff game for OUR Detroit Lions since 1999!  The Lions will once again travel to the lower reaches of the swamp, deep into the enemy territory known as "Who Dat" Nation, to face the New Orleans Saints for the second time this season, at the Mercedes-Benz Louisiana Superdome of New Orleans, LA.  Last weekend was somewhat of a let down for many of the Lion faithful, as the Lions lost a controversial heartbreaker to the Green Bay Packers, led by backup QB Matt Flynn, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI.  This weekend, on primetime TV, for a chance to redeem themselves with another shot at the defending champs, the Lions will face a RED HOT 13-3 Saints team, led by none other than the man who recently shattered Dan Marino's all time passing record for most yards in a single season, Drew Brees.  It is WIN or go home time for the Lions.  I believe the Lions will be fired up for this game, and I believe they CAN win this game.  I will reveal some of these reasons, enroute to my picks for key players for a very HUGE Lion VICTORY, followed by my general game prediction for the final outcome of the game, after the jump...

THE SKINNY: 
Despite the fact that the Lions just lost a close game to a very good backup QB (at least system wise), and a team that sat 2 of their best offensive and defensive players each, and despite the facts that the Saints just hammered the Panthers and the Falcons in consecutive weeks, while on an 8 game winning rampage, the Lions have also ended the season well, going 3-1 over the last 4 weeks including the dismantling of a then very hot San Diego Charger team.  The Lions finished the season with an amazing record, when compared to the 3 seasons prior, of 10-6, and have repeatedly proven that they are a very dangerous team that demands respect, does not quit, and refuses to not be reckoned with.  I am confident that they will give the Saints a run for their money in this game.  The Lions are going to let it all hang out, they have nothing to lose, and they are playing for their survival in the playoffs.  Have you ever seen what happens when you back a hungry Lion into a corner?  I may actually pity Drew Brees in this game...well probably not, but it isn't going to be pretty for him if our D-Line comes ready to play tomorrow.


The bottom line here is this; the Lions can beat any team they face, on any given day, as long as they do not beat themselves with stupid penalties, turnovers, and incompetent play.  The Lion's offense may not be as good as the Saint's offense, statistically, and the Saints may field a significantly better defense than we just saw in Green Bay last week, but these facts just mean that it is going to be up to the Lion's defense to step up in this game, while the offense puts together solid drives and keeps pace with Brees and the Saint's offense at the very least.  If the Lions can not stop Jimmy Graham, if they can't consistently get in the face of Drew Brees, hurrying him, hitting him, and sacking him, and if they allow the Saints to get a running game going, then it is going to be a very long and disappointing day for the Lions and their fans tomorrow.  Those are just simple facts.  The Lions also can not allow the Saint's defensive line to dictate the game.  Our O-line is going to need to be strong and aggressive tomorrow in order to beat the Saints.  And lastly, the Lions are going to have to do what it takes to get the RUNNING game going tomorrow.  Without a running game, our offense is just too predictable for a defense as good as the Saint's.


Looking at the current offensive and defensive rankings, the Saints are ranked #1 in total offensive yards per game (467.1).  They rank #1 in passing (334.2 ypg) and #6 in rushing (132.9 ypg).  The Saints have a very well balanced offense, and it is an offense that can hurt you in a number of different ways.  Hopefully the game film from last time around will help the Lions put together a sound game plan to slow them down.  Drew Brees is arguably the best QB in the NFL right now, but if the Lion's defensive line can disrupt his rhythm, he does make mistakes and is beatable.  However, if he has all day to throw the ball he will pick you apart like a vulture picks apart his dinner.  If the Lions could choose to stop one man from beating them tomorrow, they would want to pick Drew Brees, and that is what they must do.

You have to beat a Champion to be a Champion.

Defensively, the Saints are ranked 24th highest in total defensive yards per game allowed (368.4).  They rank #30 against the pass (259.8 ypga) and #12 against the run (108.6 ypga).  The Saints are not a team that intercepts a lot of passes (tied for 30th with 8 on the season), or one that gets a lot of sacks (tied for 19th with 33 on the season), but they do a very good job of stopping the run and then defending passes thrown.  Last time the Lions faced the Saints, New Orleans bracketed and doubled Calvin Johnson all day long.  Megatron was kept relatively quiet (6 catches for 69 yards) and the Lion's defense could not get off the field. Stafford still managed to pass for 408 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but the offense did not have enough time and could not do enough to even catch up to the Saints, let alone keep up with them and beat them.  Another key area of downfall last time around was the punt and kick return coverages by the Lions; they could not stop Darren Sproles, Sproles gave the Saints consistently good field position, and the Saints capitalized on it.

Darren Sproles is always a threat, and must be stopped.

The Lions are currently ranked #5 in total offensive yards per game (396.1).  The rank #4 in passing (300.9 ypg) and #29 in rushing (95.2 ypg).  Clearly the Lions are much better at passing the ball on offense than they are at running the ball.  I believe these stats can be misleading though, as even though the Lions are ranked 23 spots below the Saint's offense, in terms of running the ball, they only actually average 37.7 yards per game less than the Saints when it comes to running the ball.  As such I believe the Lions could have a much more statistically sound running game than these stats suggest.  It is all a matter of 1) How often they give the RBs the ball, 2) How well the RBs are doing when they get the ball, and 3) What kind of job the offensive line is doing at run blocking on running plays.  If they offensive line is having it's way on running downs, and if the running backs are capitalizing on those good blocks by picking up good positive yardage, then maybe the coaching staff WOULD hand the running backs the ball more often.  As it stands, the Lions probably run greater than or equal to 70% passing plays to 30% running plays (this is a rough guess).  I believe the Lions should test the running lanes regularly in this game, because if they can get any sort of success going on the ground, then it will open up bigger opportunities when it comes time to pass the ball.

Defensively, the Lions are ranked 23rd highest in total defensive yards per game allowed (one spot above the Saints at 367.6 ypga).  They are ranked #22 against the pass (239.4 ypga) and #23 against the run (128.1 ypga).  The blatantly obvious statements of fact here are that the Lions have a very slightly better defense than the Saints overall, and their passing defense is slightly better, while their run defense is moderately worse.  All in all, statistically speaking these two team defenses are almost identical on paper.  The difference is that the Lions have a defense that gets a lot of interceptions (5th with 21) and a lot of sacks (tied for 10th with 41), and the Saints have a better overall offense.  The KEY here is that the Lions are going to have to play to THEIR strengths, and if they do so it will limit the strengths of the Saints.  If the defense can limit the Saint's offense a little, with solid run defense and being disruptive in the Saints backfield on both running and passing plays, then it should equal the playing field just a bit in favor of the Lions.  If they do not do these things, then we could see a repeat (or worse) performance of the last meeting.  If they do accomplish these things, then I wholeheartedly believe this will be a close game...so close that it is possible that a single bad call by a referee could make or break either team (YIKES!!).


With those things in mind, let's take a look at the full injury reports from both teams:

Detroit Lions Wild Card Playoff Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
S	Chris Harris	Back	LP	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
CB	Aaron Berry	Shoulder	LP	LP	LP	Probable
S	Louis Delmas	Knee	LP	LP	LP	Probable
DT	Nick Fairley	Foot	LP	LP	LP	Probable
CB	Chris Houston	Hand/Knee	LP	LP	LP	Probable
WR	Calvin Johnson	Achilles	DNP	LP	LP	Probable
CB	Alphonso Smith	Foot	LP	LP	LP	Probable
RB	Kevin Smith	Ankle/Knee	LP	LP	LP	Probable
DE	Cliff Avril	Back	FP	FP	FP	Probable
DT	Corey Williams	Hip	FP	FP	FP	Probable
DE	Willie Young	Ankle	FP	FP	FP	Probable

New Orleans Saints Wildcard Playoff Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
LB	Jonathan Casillas	Knee	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
TE	John Gilmore	Toe	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
WR	Lance Moore	Hamstring	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
WR	Robert Meachem	Knee	FP	FP	LP	Probable
LB	Jonathan Vilma	Knee	LP	LP	FP	Probable
S	Jonathan Amaya	Shoulder	FP	FP	FP	Probable
S	Malcolm Jenkins	Neck	FP	FP	FP	Probable

Well will ya look at that?!?!  The Lions are going to have almost EVERY player healthy for this game!  The only player listed less than probable is Chris Harris, who is doubtful.  This is very good news for the Lions, as it means starting safety Louis Delmas will be back, along with Nick Fairley and Aaron Berry (for what he is worth).  Perhaps the greater fact that the Lions will field all of their starters is the most important thing to note, while also noting that the Saints will be without Lance Moore, Jonathan Casillas, and John Gilmore.  It is also worth noting that Robert Meachem was limited in practice Friday.  This is important because he is the only real deep threat the Saints had when they last faced the Lions, and he was allowed to catch 3 huge passes for 119 yards and a TD (67 long).  The Lions should not go to sleep on Colston or Graham either, but stopping the explosion plays to Meachem would definitely be a plus this time around.

KEY PLAYERS:
Well, this is it.  This is going to be the biggest game for the Lion's franchise in the last 12 years, and it is all going to rest on the shoulders of our 23 year old gunslinger.  Matthew Stafford is the key player for the Lions on offense.  People can argue that Calvin Johnson is the key player, or that this game warrants a situation where one of the secondary receivers or running backs might end up being key, but the bottom line is that the kid has to call the plays, he has to lead the offense, he has to manage the game, and he has to get the ball into the hands of his weapons.  The offensive line has to do their job, much like the wheels of a tank have to turn and move independently in order for the tank to maneuver properly, and maybe Calvin Johnson IS the 120 mm cannon (M1A1), but Stafford is the commanding officer giving the orders and pulling the trigger.  If the kid keeps his composure and does what he has done at the peak of his game this season, then it will be all up to his defense and whether or not they can keep the Saints from outscoring him.  If Stafford > Brees in this game, it will = LIONS WIN!

SPECIAL PLAYOFF EDITION PIC #2 - I'm representing, so let's hope that the real deal is lights out tomorrow!

Defensively, I have to name Ndamukong Suh as the key player this week.  Since his suspension, Suh has been rather quiet, minus a couple of plays.  He is going to need to make a big statement in this game, and he is going to have to play like this is the last game of his life.  If he can play at the level that we all WANT him to play at, then he will be a disruptive force in the middle of our D-line tomorrow, and his performance will open up rushing lanes for the rest of the D-line.  If Suh can be blocked by a single man tomorrow, then Brees will have more time than I believe we will want to see him get, and that could be detrimental to our overall cause.  Of course, Eric Wright and Alphonso Smith are going to have to stop Meachem, while Houston stops Colston and the safeties do their part in coverage and run support, and the linebackers are going to have to stop Jimmy Graham and the running backs from getting loose, but if Brees has less time to make reads, set up, and throw the ball, it will help our linebackers and DBs tremendously on passing downs.  Ndamukong Suh is a man that can take away a lot of that time, and as such his performance will be key.

THIS is the guy we need to see tomorrow!

PREDICTION:
I'm not going to quit predicting Lions wins now.  I predicted a win in every single edition of the WS this season, because I just didn't have the heart to pick against them.  I believed that the Lions COULD win every game, and I felt that they would have if a few circumstances had been different.  Sure, a few games were out of control and a few were lucky, but the fact remains that they could have won every game.  My heart says that the Lions will win this game.  My mind tells me that if they do, it will be very close, possibly in OT.  My gut says that we are facing an uphill battle, and that we are going to need the Lions to play a mistake free ballgame, executing consistently on both offense and defense, in order for us to witness them defeating the Saints tomorrow.  Wisdom gained from experience dictates that I would go with my gut instinct here, and predict a Saints win.  However, I will not do that because hearts, minds, and sheer force of will can win any battle, and I believe in our Lions with all of my heart.  LIONS WIN 31-28.

I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 18 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy PLAYOFF weekend ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!