The Weekend Spotlight - Week 15 Edition - 2011

Titus Young has been a nice addition to the Lion's arsenal.

Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen, to the week 15 edition of YOUR Weekend Spotlight!  I am your host, KDawg.  This installment of your weekly WS will feature tomorrow's MUST win game between the Detroit Lions and the Oakland Raiders, on the road in Oakland, CA, at the Oracle Arena & Oakland Alameda County Coliseum.  Last week's win over the Minnesota Vikings left the Lions with a regular season record of 8-5.  The Raiders are 7-6 on the season, and have certainly had their ups and downs.  With just 3 games left of the regular season, the Lion's are playing to keep their playoff hopes alive.  I will once again reveal to you who my picks for key players are, on the Lion's offense and defense, for another Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats and a prediction at the end. 


The "experts" are saying that the Lions and Raiders field a very similar team defensively, but personally I think these "experts" need their heads examined.  One Yahoo Sports writer lists Mike Mitchell, Stanford Routt, Denarius Moore, Richard Seymour, and Ndamukong Suh, as well as the fact that the Coliseum is sold out for the game, as reasons why they believe the Raiders will win this game.  The Raiders are far from the best team the Lions have BEATEN this season, as can be referenced in their shutout loss to the Chiefs and recent loss to the Tebow led Denver Broncos.  As such, I believe VICTORY will be ours, and I will tell you why and how as the WS W15E begins...after the jump.

THE SKINNY:
First of all, I just want to dispel some of the "logic" used by the brain trust that wrote about the aforementioned players as reasons the Raiders will win this game.  #1 - Mike Mitchell:  Mike Mitchell has done nothing this season.  He has 25 tackles (18 solo and 7 assists), one sack, and has been a liability in pass coverage all season long for Oakland.  So why are there people tossing his name around as a factor for defeating the Lions?  There is only one reason, and that reason is that he got lucky and picked off a pass thrown by Aaron Rodgers in their blowout lost last weekend to the Packers.  This case is closed in my mind, as I do not believe Mike Mitchell will do jack squat against the Lions.  


#2 - Stanford Routt:  Stanford Routt has been a pleasant surprise for Oakland fans this season, if 39 tackles (33 solo, 8 assists), 3 INTs (one vs Caleb Hanie, one vs Christian Ponder, and one vs Ryan Fitzpatrick), and getting torched at least once per game (most recently by Johnny Knox) is a real surprise.  Even Donald Driver's tired old legs were still good enough to get past Routt.  He has 3 INTs, and 2 of them came against less than average QBs that the Lions themselves have exposed.  Even the guys over at SB Nation's Silver and Black Pride are worried that Routt will "need to play the game of his life" if the Raiders will have any hope of stopping Calvin Johnson.  Megatron is just one of their worries, and Stanford Routt can not stop them all (and I have serious doubts that the 6'1" 195 CB has a snowball's chance in hell of stopping #81 to begin with).  Jonathon Holland (WHO?) beat Stanford Routt for God's sake (on a pass from Kyle Boller no less)!  Get out of here with this crap...case closed.


#3 - Denarius Moore: Denarius Moore will be returning to action this week, coming off of an injury to his right foot that sidelined him for the last 3 weeks.  He is considered a deep threat, but with a bum wheel?  He is their 3rd leading receiver, behind Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Bush.  I am FAR more concerned with Heyward-Bey getting deep, and Michael Bush in general, than I am about Moore's chances of having a big game.  It's not just Moore himself, but he has to have someone to get him the ball in the first place and I believe Carson Palmer is in for a very rough day tomorrow.  This doesn't even mention the fact that Palmer is throwing for barely 56% completions and has tossed 13 INTs to 9 TDs in his 6 games as the Oakland starter.  Sebastian Janikowski is more of a threat in my opinion...case closed.  


#4 - Richard Seymour:  Once a premier pass rusher, Richard Seymour is not playing anywhere near the level of which he was once capable.  He injured his knee in week 5, and since then has done next to nothing (1 sack against Chicago and 7 total tackles (4 solo)).  If Raider fans want to hang their hopes on what he did in week 5 and prior (5 sacks and 18 total tackles (15 solo)), then by all means I say be my guest.  I can't imagine him being any more scary than Jared Allen, so bring it on!  I'm not worried about Seymour, and I am confident that Backus will once again rise to the occasion.  Even if Seymour gets a few sacks, it won't be enough of a factor to consider it as a reason the Raiders will win the game.  Case closed.


#5 - Ndamukong Suh:  Now this is just hilarious.  The word is that Suh's lack of "good decision making capabilities", stemming from his recent 2 game suspension and the subsequent car accident while he was home in Oregon, is reason to believe that the Raiders can "get into his head and cause him to make penalties".  Furthermore, this could be a KEY to the Raiders beating the Lions tomorrow.  Really?  Are you that daft?  Seriously, you would have better luck grasping at straws down at McDonald's on kids eat free day.  Not only is it clear to me that the writer of this nonsense in a well mis-informned Raider's jockey, but it is also clear that SHE doesn't know her ass from a hole in the ground.

After the dirty Detroit defensive tackle stepped on the arm of a Green Bay Packers' offensive lineman, he was suspended for two games. He then went home to Oregon and got in a car accident in which one of his passengers was injured, and lied to the police about what happened. The incident is under investigation, but it doesn't look good for Ndamukong Suh.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ycn-10696229
So Ms. Dermody, you contend to have inside knowledge on this investigation, so much that you KNOW Ndamukong Suh lied to Police?  Excuse me miss, but not only is that SPECULATION, but it is also likely LIBEL based on defamation of character.  If I were you, I would shut my cake hole while I was ahead.  Suh is going to come back and be SUH.  He is going to be the one in the heads of all of YOUR offensive lineman, and he is going to dominate as usual.  Get used to it.  Case closed.

Lastly, #6 - The Coliseum is sold out for the 7th consecutive time this season: There may actually be some credence to this statement.  The sold out stadium full of Raider nation fans could very well prove to be an annoyance for the Lion's offense.  That said, it was likely just as loud, raucous even, and annoying when the Lions beat the Cowboys at home, or when they beat Tampa Bay, Denver, and Minnesota in their houses.  Maybe it is more on the level with Who Dat nation in the Superdome, but is that enough to give the Raider's the overall advantage?  I think not, but we shall soon find out.

The Raiders are currently ranked 12th overall in total offense, in terms of yards per game (366.7).  They have the 16th ranked passing offense and the 6th ranked rushing offense.  It is no secret that Oakland will try to run the ball early and often against the Lions.  However, they will be without Darren McFadden, which is not all that big of a deal considering they have Michael Bush as a backup.  The Raiders are the best rushing team the Lions have faced, if you don't count the Vikings (who we happen to have beaten twice already, and the first time they had Adrian Peterson), Panthers (we also beat them), and Broncos (can you say blowout?).  The Raiders are a run first team, and a live and die by the deep pass team second.  As long as the Lions do what they did against Minnesota (twice), Carolina, and Denver, and as long as they do not allow multiple explosion plays against the pass (good luck stopping our pass rush), then there should be nothing to worry about defensively.

#29 Michael Bush is the man to stop for the Lions.

The Raiders are currently ranked 26th overall in total defense, in terms of yards allowed per game (374.7).  They have the 18th ranked passing defense and the 29th ranked rushing defense.  It looks like my man Kevin Smith will play this week, so we should see a pretty solid running game by the Lions this week.  The Lions are well known to be a team built around passing the ball, and they have already faced and defeated 2 teams with better passing defenses, in Kansas City and Denver, but I believe we will see a much more balanced attack against Oakland, especially if Kevin Smith is ready to come back.  The Raider's defense was built in the same fashion as the Lion's defense, from the front on back.  They will try to rush Stafford and force him to make quick reads and throws, hoping he will make mistakes.  They will hope that their pass rush is dominant enough to allow for their weaker secondary to make plays.  They are currently tied with Denver in sacks, ranking them 4th in that category, but Minnesota is ranked ahead of them in that area as well.  Denver gained 2 sacks on Detroit, while Minnesota had 5 in both meetings, yet neither one defeated the Lions.  I'm not worried about the Oakland pass rush, any more than I was worried about Jared Allen, and as such I do not see them stopping the Lion's passing attack or running attack.  In my opinion, Detroit will score at will or they will beat themselves, plain and simple.

#26 Stanford Routt, seen getting beat here by Eddie Royal (even though he did not make the catch), is the guy that Oakland hopes can stop Calvin Johnson? 

The Lions are currently ranked 10th overall in total offense, in terms of yards per game (376.2).  They have the 5th ranked passing offense and the 24th ranked rushing offense (almost mirror opposites of Oakland).  I am sure that Oakland expects the Lions to pass first and think about running second, and they very well could do just that.  However, as I said before, with Kevin Smith in the mix we could see a much closer ratio of run to pass in this game, given the porous nature of the Raider's run defense.  I believe Kevin Smith is going to rush for 100+ yards once again in this matchup, and his performance will keep the Raider's on their heels defensively, opening up the passing game for Stafford, Megatron, and company.  I can't see Oakland being able to stop Detroit, once the fans are quieted by the explosive nature of our offense.

The Lions are currently ranked 17th overall in total defense, in terms of yards allowed per game (345.2).  They have the 9th ranked passing defense and the 27th ranked rushing defense.  Detroit is in a 3 way tie for 9th in the NFL in sacks, with just 2 sacks less than Oakland.  So really, this game is going to come down to which offense is better, in my opinion.  The Lions clearly field the better defense all the way around, but the Raider's strength on offense also happens to be our biggest weakness on defense.  I believe Oakland will have to beat us by running the ball, if they have any hopes of coming away with a win tomorrow.  Detroit is superior to them in almost every category except rushing offense and sacks gained by the defense.  With both a superior offense (overall) and a superior defense (again in all categories other than sacks), on paper it doesn't look like Oakland stands a chance to win this game.  As long as the Lions execute on both sides of the ball, and play a relatively well disciplined game, my bet is that Oakland will be fighting an uphill battle tomorrow, much like their very own division rival Denver Broncos did when they got shalacked by the Lions at Mile High.

If it wasn't already clear enough, the bottom line here is simple.  The Raiders will run the ball, and Michael Bush will be their biggest threat against the Lions.  When Carson Palmer does have time to pass, it will most likely be on short routes to Bush, Boss, and Heyward-Bey.  The Lions will pass the ball as often as needed, and they will excel at doing so with a plethora of weapons at their disposal.  The Lions will rely on their front four to rush the passer, and force Palmer to make mistakes.  The Raiders will rely on their linebackers (namely Wimbley and McClain) to blitz and sack Stafford, as well as DTs Seymour and Tommy Kelly in regular 4 man rushing situations.  The Raiders do have depth at DT with Desmond Bryant as well, so the Lions will need to do a good job protecting Matthew Stafford up front (I have no reason to believe they will not at this point).  The Lions will utilize Kevin Smith to counter the blitzes, and will likely throw to him and Brandon Pettgrew as release valves, in blitz situations, on passing downs.  The ultimate keys to victory for the Lions are going to be running the ball effectively, protecting Stafford, stopping the run, forcing and winning the turnover battle, and limiting stupid penalties.  If they do these things, I have no doubt that they will win this game, regardless of what personnel Oakland throws at them.

With all of that in mind, let's take a quick look at this week's complete injury reports for both teams:

Detroit Lions Week 15 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
CB	Aaron Berry	Shoulder	DNP	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
DT	Nick Fairley	Foot	LP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
DE	Willie Young	Ankle	LP	LP	DNP	Probable
S	Louis Delmas	Knee	DNP	DNP	LP	Questionable
LB	Justin Durant	Hamstring	DNP	DNP	LP	Questionable
CB	Chris Houston	Knee	LP	LP	LP	Probable
DE	Lawrence Jackson	Thigh	DNP	DNP	LP	Doubtful
RB	Kevin Smith	Ankle	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
S	Amari Spievey	Knee	LP	LP	LP	Probable
CB	Eric Wright	Hamstring	DNP	DNP	LP	Questionable
G	Rob Sims	Shoulder	FP	FP	FP	Probable

Oakland Raiders Week 15 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
QB	Jason Campbell	Collarbone	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
WR	Jacoby Ford	Foot	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
DT	John Henderson	Knee	DNP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
S	Michael Huff	Ankle	DNP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
CB	Chris Johnson	Not Injury Related	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
RB	Taiwan Jones	Hamstring	DNP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
RB	Darren McFadden	Foot	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
DT	Tommy Kelly	Toe	LP	LP	LP	Probable
WR	Denarius Moore	Foot	LP	LP	LP	Questionable
DE	Jarvis Moss	Shoulder	LP	LP	LP	Probable
WR	Louis Murphy	Hip	Not Listed	LP	LP	Probable
C	Samson Satele	Shoulder	LP	LP	LP	Probable
WR	Chaz Schilens	Foot	LP	LP	LP	Probable
WR	Darrius Heyward-Bey	Heel	FP	FP	FP	Probable

Trust me when I say this; it is not as bad as it looks.  Delmas, Durant, Fairley, Wright, and Kevin Smith are all listed as questionable.  Kevin Smith has been practicing and looks to be the best bet to play tomorrow, but all 5 of these guys are game time decisions.  I think Durant, Wright, and Smith will all play, and I also think there is a good chance that we will see Delmas return along with Nick Fairley.  They may not play every down, but I believe they will play.  Chris Houston is coming back just in time, and with Alphonso Smith playing as well as he did last week, there will not be much falloff (if any) between him and Wright.  Aaron Berry and Lawrence Jackson are the only two players listed on the Lion's injury report who I do not see playing.  This means it is likely we will see more of Chris Harris, Alphonso Smith, Don Carey, and Bobby Carpenter, but the good news is that SUH will be back, along with Houston and Kevin Smith.

The Raiders will be without starting WR Jacoby Ford, starting RB Darren McFadden, and starting CB Chris Johnson for sure, and it is entirely possible that John Henderson, Michael Huff, Taiwan Jones, and Denarius Moore could all be inactive as well.  And here I thought we were banged up...sheesh!

Since I already mentioned the ultimate keys to victory above, lets move on to my picks for key players on the Lion's offense and defense this week.

KEY PLAYERS:
On offense, my pick for the Lion's key player this week is Kevin Smith (again).  With Oakland fielding one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL, it will be key to have Kevin Smith back and playing well.  If he is able to hit the holes and make his cuts, he will be in for a big day tomorrow and he will be the key to the Lion's being able to move the ball with ease.  Without Smith and a decent running game, Oakland will be able to bracket Calvin Johnson.  With Kevin Smith and a solid running game, Oakland will be forced to bring up a safety, and that is when we will see just how good Stanford Routt really is.  I see Kevin Smith surpassing 100 yards rushing, and also adding 5-10 catches for 50+ yards out of the backfield.  I think he could potentially see the end zone 2+ times.

Ooooo, he's a little runaway...

On defense, my pick for the Lion's key player this week is more difficult.  My first inclination is to name Chris Houston, Alphonso Smith, Ndamukong Suh, Cliff Avril, or DeAndre Levy, as all of these guys will play very significant roles on defense for Detroit tomorrow.  However, once again I am going to name Stephen Tulloch as the key player on defense.  This time around, Tulloch will not be tasked with taking down as powerful of a runner as he was last week with Toby Gerhart, and with the main weakness of the Lion's run defense being right up the middle, I think Tulloch will ultimately play THE key role in stopping the run again this week.  If he can make plays in the middle, and stop Michael Bush from ripping off huge gains there, then I think it will go a long way toward stopping the Raider's offense altogether.  At the very worst, if Tulloch can help limit Bush, we could see a lot of Sebastian Janikowski tomorrow.  In that case, as long as the Lions are executing on offense, then Oakland can kick 6-8 FGs as far as I am concerned, because I believe we will be winning on the scoreboard.  If Bush is allowed to eat up the clock and rip off big gainers, then the Lions could be in for a long day.

BAM!!

PREDICTION:
Oakland gets 2-4 sacks altogether, none of them are from Seymour, and the Lions win in dominant fashion once again, 38-19.

I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 15 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!