The Weekend Spotlight - Week 13 Edition - 2011

#9 Matthew Stafford enters the building on Thanksgiving versus the Packers.

Welcome back ladies and gentlemen, to the week 13 edition of your Weekend Spotlight!  I am your host, KDawg.  This installment of your weekly WS will feature tonight's prime time matchup between our Detroit Lions and the New Orleans Saints, on the road, in New Orleans, LA, at the Mercedes-Benz Louisiana Superdome.  The Lions are now 7-4 on the season, after losing on Thanksgiving Day to the undefeated Green Bay Packers.  The Saints are 8-3 on the season, and as usual they are a force to be reckoned with offensively.  With just 4 games left in the regular season,  I will once again reveal to you who my picks for key players are, on the Lion's offense and defense, for another Lion VICTORY!  As usual, I will provide you with the logic behind the reasoning for my picks, including stats and a prediction at the end.  The Saints are definitely the best overall passing team we have faced, but I still believe VICTORY can be ours, and I will tell you why and how as the WS W13E begins...after the jump.

THE SKINNY:
As stated by TCLion, in his "Behind the Numbers" post, even though the Saints are #1 in the NFL in passing, and #8 in the NFL in rushing, they are also #27 in the league vs the pass and #17 in the league vs the run, with the Lions matching up with them very well in comparison to their previous opponents.  The Saints currently field the NFL's #1 offense, in terms of total yards per game, but they also currently field the #25 defense based on the same statistic.  The Lions are currently ranked 9th overall on offense, ranking 6th in passing and 22nd in rushing, while ranking 10th overall on defense, with defensive ranks of 6th in the NFL vs the pass and 23rd vs the run.  Perhaps the most concerning issues at hand for the Lions are the facts that injuries and suspension has recently taken a toll on them defensively.  We will take a look at the injury reports in a bit, so you can see for yourself what kind of shape both teams are in.


Ever the optimist when it comes to predicting the outcome of Lion's games, I still believe the Lions can win this game.  They are going to have to play a very good game on both sides of the ball, in order to get it done, but the Saints can be beaten by the Lions if the Lions accomplish a few small feats.  #1, the Lions are going to have to play as close to a mistake free game as possible.  This means NO stupid turnovers, limited penalties, and consistent execution on both sides of the ball.  #2, much like the Packers game, the Lions are going to have to be very tough on defense, limiting the number of scores New Orleans is allowed to get, or else this game could easily get way out of hand in a hurry.  This means that the Lions can not afford to allow New Orleans to get out to a big lead, or the deficit could easily become unmanageable.  #3, the Lions must consistently execute on offense.  This means that they can not afford a bunch of 3 and out drives, and they must match or best New Orleans in terms of putting points on the board.  In order for this to happen, they are going to have to be able to sustain drives and control the clock on offense, by running the ball effectively, as well as stopping the run and limiting explosion plays by the Saints when they are on defense.  Just like the game vs the Packers, if the Lions protect the football and are the more efficient team on both sides of the ball, then this game could prove to be a shootout with the Lions having a good chance to come out on top.


Last week I talked about how dominant Aaron Rodgers had been to that point.  Well, the falloff between Rodgers and Drew Brees is not a big one, and many might argue that Brees is the better QB statistically.  Rodgers has more TD passes, less INTs, a higher completion %, and a better QB rating overall, but Drew Brees has passed for more yards (+214), only 6 less TDs, 7 more INTs, a difference of 1.6% in completion percentages (70.2 to 71.8 for Brees and Rodgers respectively), and a difference of 24.1 points in QB rating (103.6 to 127.7).  There are no real breaks for the Lions, in terms of the opposing performance of the QB, between the Packers and the Saints.  Add in the fact that the Saints have the #1 passing offense in the league, the fact that the Saints have a run game that is far superior to the Packers, and a defense that is also superior to the Packers, and the picture starts looking even more bleak than before.  In fact, the only areas that New Orleans is not superior to Green Bay are in rushing defense (17th vs 13th) and overall win-loss record.

Drew Brees is a Champion, and the heart and soul of the Saint's offense.

With all of that in mind, let's take a quick look at this week's injury reports for both teams:

Detroit Lions Week 13 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
S	Louis Delmas	Knee	DNP	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
CB	Chris Houston	Knee	DNP	DNP	DNP	Doubtful
DE	Lawrence Jackson	Thigh	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
CB	Brandon McDonald	Thigh	LP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
RB	Kevin Smith	Ankle	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable
DE	Willie Young	Ankle	LP	LP	LP	Probable
S	Chris Harris	Ankle	FP	FP	FP	Probable
WR	Calvin Johnson	Ankle	FP	FP	FP	Probable
WR	Maurice Stovall	Shoulder	FP	FP	FP	Probable
LB	Doug Hogue	Illness	DNP	FP	Not Listed	Not Listed

New Orleans Saints Week 13 Injury Report
POS.	NAME	INJURY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	STATUS
DE	Turk McBride	Ankle	DNP	DNP	DNP	Out
LB	Jonathan Vilma	Knee	LP	LP	LP	Probable
CB	Jabari Greer	Knee	LP	FP	FP	Probable
DE	Tom Johnson	Elbow	FP	FP	FP	Probable

With Chris Houston and Louis Delmas listed as doubtful, Brandon McDonald listed as questionable, Ndamukong Suh suspended, and Lawrence Jackson listed as out, the Lions will be relying on their depth on defense to get the job done.  This is especially true in the secondary, but also important to the success of the D-line rotation and performance.  The Lions could be in big trouble on defense, as they will be forced to rely on Sammie Lee Hill and Nick Fairley to take the place of Suh, Chris Harris to take the place of Delmas if he can't go, and Alphonso Smith and Aaron Berry to take the place of Chris Houston if he can't go.  Alphonso Smith is currently listed as the #2 LCB, with Aaron Berry backing him up, but recently we have seen a LOT more of Aaron Berry than we have of Alphonso Smith.  I am concerned with Berry's ability to fill Chris Houston's role, and equally as concerned with Alphonso Smith stepping into his shoes when he has barely seen the field this season.  Also concerning is the fact that Kevin Smith is still listed as questionable, as the Lions are going to need a sound running game in order to beat New Orleans.  Kevin Smith had provided a much needed spark to our offense, before he was forced to leave the Thanksgiving game with what has been called both a "high ankle sprain" and a "mild sprain".  I am hopeful that he can play, and play near to 100%, because the Lions desperately need that spark right about now.  The Saints have no significant injuries to note, and as such the Lions will have to beat an 8-3 team, which has pretty much every player healthy who got them there, with backups.


The Lions can win this game, despite all of the negative factors against them.  That said, they will need to accomplish some very specific keys in order to do so.  The ultimate keys to a Lion victory this week are going to be effectively running the ball, controlling the clock and limiting the number of chances New Orleans has on offense, stopping the run on defense, limiting the passing game of New Orleans by not allowing them to beat us deep, and playing a relatively mistake free game on both sides of the ball.  The Lions can not afford to rack up stupid penalties, or give up a large lead early.  They must get pressure on Drew Brees, create turnovers on defense, and as always have Matthew Stafford playing very well.  If they can accomplish these keys, then VICTORY can be ours!  If they fail in one or more of these areas, then the chances of beating New Orleans will get smaller and smaller with each failure.  And with that, let's move on to my picks for key players this week on the Lion's offense and defense.


KEY PLAYERS: 
On offense, even though I believe the Lions will need to give the Saints a very serious dose of a run attack, it is ultimately difficult for me to NOT name Matthew Stafford as the key player this week.  Stafford has recently removed the gloves and brace from his broken index finger, and his ability to throw the ball accurately is going to make or break the Lions in this game.  I really believe Kevin Smith, Maurice Morris, and Keiland Williams, not to mention Calvin Johnson, could all play very significant roles in this game, but I do not believe the Lions can beat New Orleans with a running game alone.  As such, it will ultimately come down to which Matthew Stafford shows up for this game.  If it is the dominant gunslinger we all saw and loved in the beginning of the season, the guy who very accurately threw for 19 TDs and just 4 INTs over the first 8 games (62% completions over that span), and not the braying jackass who, since the bye, has thrown just 7 TDs to 9 INTs (still 26 TDs to 13 INTs...but you get the picture I hope), then I believe the Lions will have a good chance to win this game.  Even in the face of more INTs than TD passes over the last 3 games, Stafford has been surprisingly accurate with a 67% completion percentage.  His poor decisions, slow reads, and some dumb luck on the part of his opponents are what really killed the Lions in the last 3 games, and we really need #9 to make smart decisions, good reads, and throw accurate, high percentage, passes if we hope to win this game.  That said, he will also need time to be able to set up and throw the ball, which lies on the shoulders of his offensive line and the success (or lack thereof) of the running game.

Please God, let's not see this body language this week!

Defensively, my pick for key player this week is Nick Fairley.  In order to beat the Saints, the Lions are going to need to make New Orleans a one dimensional team on offense.  I believe their best chance of doing so will be to stop the run and force them to pass.  I do not see the Lions stopping New Orleans from scoring, nor do I see them being able to stop their passing game, but if they can at least be stifling against the run, thereby forcing the Saints to pass, then I believe there could be a few small windows of opportunity to capitalize on mistakes made by the Saint's offense.  I believe this all has to start up front, and I also believe that our young stud rookie DT will see a majority of the snaps tonight in place of Ndamukong Suh.  If the kid can dominate like he did at Auburn, and wreak some havoc on the Saints backfield, then I believe it will go a long way towards getting the Saint's offense off the field more often, thereby giving the Lion's offense more opportunities to score and keep the game close.  I also believe that Sammie Lee Hill will play a significant role in this same aspect.  Eric Wright is going to have to play a solid game, our linebackers are going to be tasked with stopping Jimmy Graham from beating us single handedly, and the rest of our depth guys (Chris Harris, Alphonso Smith, Aaron Berry) are going to have step up their games as well.  The RAMS beat New Orleans.  They did so by running the ball and stopping the run.  If the Lions can do the same, they have a good chance to win.

This is the guy we need tonight...the one running over the QB.  Hopefully he will avoid the BS roughing call this time.

PREDICTION:
This game could go one of three ways.  Either 1) The Saints will blow the Lions out, 2) The Saints will win in a close shootout, or 3) The Lions will win in a close shootout.  I do not believe it will be easy for the Lions, and much like the game versus the Packers, I believe they are facing an uphill battle.  However, if they can accomplish my ultimate keys, and if the players I mentioned as key perform as I hope they will, I still believe this is the Lion's game to lose.  Regardless of what has been said, what has happened recently in terms of injury etc, and how unlikely it seems that a depleted Lion's team can beat the Saints, the Lions DID make a huge statement to the league on Thanksgiving, and that message was WE CAN PLAY WITH THE BEST!  The Lions lost to the Packers, but they put up a good fight and looked GREAT until they self destructed.  If they can avoid those same mistakes, and if our key players perform to their potential, the Lions will win this game.  My prediction, sticking to my history of picking the Lions to win, is that the Lions WILL win this game by the score of 45-38.


I want to thank all of you who read this post.  As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game.   This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 13 edition of the Weekend Spotlight!  Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!