The Weekend Spotlight - Week 12 Edition, 2011 - Follow Up Post

#30 Kevin Smith continued to be impressive against Green Bay.

Welcome back once again ladies and gentlemen, to another Weekend Spotlight Follow Up Post.  I am your host, KDawg.  Thanksgiving Day was not one that saw the Lions defeat their division rival Green Bay Packers, and that was just the beginning of things that I am NOT thankful for!  If you watched the game, you are well aware that the Lions lost the game 27-15.  The game was VERY close in the first half, and it took the Packers almost the entire first half to score.  Even then, that score was set up by yet another Matthew Stafford interception, giving the Packers the ball at the Detroit 13 yard line.  In Stafford's defense, the ball was tipped by Ryan Pickett and Clay Matthews just happened to be in the right place at the right time, intercepting the deflected pass and returning it 7 yards from the Detroit 20 to the Detroit 13.  On the very next play, Brandon McDonald was called for pass interference in the end zone, which gave GB a 1st and goal from the Detroit 1 yard line.  2 plays later, after John Kuhn was stuffed for a 2 yard loss, Aaron Rodgers found Greg Jennings in the endzone for a 3 yard TD pass, making the score 7-0 Green Bay with 4:54 left in the half.  The Lions would drive from their own 21, all the way to the Green Bay 29 where Jason Hanson MISSED a 47 yard FG wide left.  The Packers would go 3 and out on their next series, and the Lions would throw 2 short passes to end the first half on a conservative note, down 0-7.

Read more, after the jump:



Unfortunately the Packers had won the toss and deferred to the second half, so they would get the ball to start the 3rd quarter.  They immediately drove down the field and scored another TD to start the 2nd half, on an 11 play, 77 yard drive that took 5 minutes and 54 seconds off of the clock.  Down 0-14, I was still optimistic that the Lions COULD win.  Unfortunately, the Lions first drive of the second half went 38 yards before Stafford threw a 10 yard pass over the middle right to Ricky Francois, on 2nd down and 3.  No, Francois is NOT one of our receivers.  INT #2 behind us, the Packers got the ball on the Green Bay 35.  On the very next play, Aaron Rodgers hit James Jones in stride, wide open behind the safeties, for a 65 yard TD, making the score 21-0 Green Bay.  I still had hope and faith in my Lions.  As if the football Gods were out to spite me, the Lions returned the ensuing kickoff to their own 27, Stafford managed to throw a 5 yard pass to Calvin Johnson, and then Charles Woodson jumped a pass to Brandon Pettigrew for INT #3, giving Green Bay the ball AGAIN at the Detroit 33 yard line...sigh.  The Packers moved the ball 16 yards before kicking a 35 yard FG to make it a 24-0 Green Bay lead.  At this point, I was pretty sure that there was no miracle comeback brewing...yet I kept watching.

Now we can enter the first moment of time in this game, where the offense and it's coordinator FINALLY got their heads out of their collective asses.  Detroit returned the kickoff to their own 28 yard line, and marched the ball 72 yards in 7 plays for their first TD of the game.  They added a 2pt conversion to make it 8-24, however their drive also carried them into the 4th quarter even though it only took 2:59.  Both teams were forced to punt on their next drives, before Green Bay added another FG from 32 yards out, after moving the ball 52 yards and taking up another 5:42 off the clock, making the score 27-8 Green Bay.  The Lions answered that score with an 11 play, 79 yard TD drive that took just 2:32.  Stafford's only TD pass of the game (Calvin Johnson) made the score 15-27, and that is the way it ended because there was only 11 seconds left in the game when Green Bay got the ball back.

Overall, it was a very ugly game for the Detroit offense.  Adding insult to injury, Ndamukong Suh was ejected from the game, during the first drive of the 2nd half, for slamming the head of Evan Dietrich-Smith into the turf several times, before getting up and delivering a stomp to the downed Packer player's arm.  Even worse than that, it is now likely that he will face a minimum of a 2 game suspension and a fine.  Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Chris Harris all left the game with injuries and did not return. Aaron Berry, Brandon McDonald,  and Cliff Avril were all injured as well, but were able to return.  Even in the face of all of those injuries to our defense, the Lion's defense still played very well when Green Bay was not handed a short field to work with.

So, all ramblings aside, let's get down to the actual reason I am writing this post to begin with.  It's time to recap my pre-game predictions, starting with the following quote from the WS W12E:

They beat teams because their offense is very good at capitalizing on their opponents mistakes, effectively meaning that their opponents beat themselves.

They, meaning the Packers, did exactly that.  The Lions made mistakes, in the form of turnovers, and the Packers did what they do best.  They capitalized on the 3 interceptions thrown by Stafford, adding 2 TDs and a FG

This brings me to my next quote, which follows suit as so:

The Lions can win this game, but it is going to take a very well disciplined game.  They must be as close to mistake free as possible, and they absolutely MUST protect the football.  They can not afford to turn the ball over, and they certainly can not afford to come out slow and give the Packers a 17+ point lead at halftime.  If they do, they will lose, just like every other team that has faced Green Bay thus far...plain and simple.  This game has all of the makings of a shootout, and it is going to come down to which team makes the least mistakes.  If the Lions do not turn the ball over, and they treat every offensive possession as if it were their last, by putting points on the board and being the more efficient team, they will not only be IN the game, but they will also stand a very good chance at winning it.

The Lions threw 3 INTs and committed 11 penalties for 82 yards.  That is hardly mistake free, not to mention the disqualification of Ndamukong Suh.  Other than the 3 INTs, the Lions did not lose any fumbles.  Matthew Stafford did not do a particularly great job at protecting the football, in light of the 3 INTs and 1 fumble that was recovered by Burleson, but other than those miscues the Lions had 3 less turnovers vs Green Bay than they had a week before against the Bears (the bright side?).  The Lions did not allow Green Bay to run away with the game in the first half, and up until the 1st Stafford INT it really looked as if the Lions would be the first team to score.  However, as previously stated the Packers took just a 7 point lead into the half.  Rather than being a shootout, much to my surprise the game was a defensive battle in the first half.  That said, the Lions were the team that ended up making more mistakes, and the more critical mistakes, which inevitably cost them the game in the 2nd half.

Since I already talked about a majority of the ultimate keys to victory, and because I am sure none of you wants to recap the prowess of the Packers which I wrote about in the background info portion of the WS, let's skip ahead, past all of that and the injury reports, to my predictions for key players:

Offensively for the Lions, I believe the key player this week will once again be Kevin Smith.  I said it last week, and it came true, and I believe it will happen again this week.  If Kevin Smith can get the ball rolling on the ground, then the Lions will have a much better chance at going toe to toe with the defending champs, offensively.  Of course, as I have stated several times this season, Matthew Stafford is always a key player for the Lions on offense.  If he is on his game, then Kevin Smith's performance will certainly be THE key to a Lion victory in this game.  If Stafford struggles, then I don't think anything Smith does will matter.  However, I believe Matthew Stafford is going to bring it this week, and as such I believe Kevin Smith stands an excellent chance of surpassing 100 yards rushing, thereby keeping Green Bay's defense on their heels all day long.  If Smith and the rest of the Lion's running backs can't get anything going, then Stafford will need to play a near perfect game in order for the Lions to beat the Packers.  I say Kevin Smith is the key player this week, because he can make or break the success of the Lion's passing game with his performance.

Well, the Lions managed to put forward another strong rushing performance.  They were able to amass 136 net rushing yards, on 21 rushing attempts, for a 6.48 ypc avg against the Packers.  Kevin Smith was looking very good once again, early in the game, but unfortunately he left the game with what was at first diagnosed as a "high ankle sprain".  Smith had just 7 carries, but gained 36 yards for a 5.14 ypc avg.  He once again showed excellent vision, burst through the holes, and ability to cut back and make defenders miss.  He was once again providing the spark that this offense had been missing ever since Best went down.  Luckily, now that we have learned that Jahvid Best will be placed on the IR, ending his season, Kevin Smith's injury was later found to be just a mild sprain instead of a high ankle sprain.  Barring any setbacks, I expect he will be back next week vs New Orleans.  Maurice Morris did just as well as Kevin Smith, rushing for 39 yards on 7 carries also, but he also added 9 catches for 81 yards.  I am pretty certain that those catches would have been Kevin Smith's, had the injury not occurred.  Once Smith was out, it seemed like Linehan abandoned the run somewhat.  I am not sure if he lacks confidence in Morris, or if it was all due to the score, but either way I feel it was clear that we should have continued to run the ball (AGAIN).

Defensively for the Lions, I believe the key player this week will be Eric Wright and whether or not he can cover Jordy Nelson.  I believe that Chris Houston CAN cover Greg Jennings, but he will also be a key player for the Lion's defense this week.  The Packers have so many weapons that almost everyone on the Lion's defense is going to be tested.  Jermichael Finley is one of the most athletic TEs in the NFL, so Justin Durant and DeAndre Levy will have their work cut out for them.  Jennings, Nelson, Driver, and Jones are all solid receiving threats, so Wright and Houston will have their work cut out for them, as well as Delmas, Spievey, and Harris in support.  The D-line will be tasked with containing and pressuring the Packer's biggest weapon, which is none other than Aaron Rodgers, so they too will need their A-game.  However, Jordy Nelson is quietly putting up HUGE numbers, with 40 catches, 756 yards, 9 TDs, and an 18.9 average yards per catch (Jennings has 53 catches, 761 yards, 7 TDs, and a 14.4 avg).  Maybe it's because he's white (as he himself suggests), but I think it is more likely that teams simply do not believe that he is the receiving threat that he is, choosing to focus more attention on Greg Jennings.  The Lions are tasked with containing both, but if Eric Wright can contain Jordy Nelson, it will help the rest of the defense tremendously.  In all reality, everything depends on whether or not the defensive line can put consistent pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and also whether or not they can stop HIM from beating us by scrambling for first downs every time anyone gets near him.

There were so many injuries and substitutions on the Lion's defense this week, that I have no idea who was covering who, where, or when.  What I do know is this; Aaron Rodgers completed 22 passed for 307 yards and 2 TDs...to NINE different receivers!  Jordy Nelson was held in check, but he had 4 catches for 26 yards.  Greg Jennings had 5 catches for 74 yards and a TD, while James Jones had 3 catches for 94 yards, including a 65 yard TD.  The rest of the Packer receivers, including Jermichael Finley, had minor roles, but all caught at least 1 pass and Ryan Grant caught 3.  Chris Houston was doing a good job on Jennings before he was injured, and Eric Wright played a good game against Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and Greg Jennings (he covered all 3 at different points).  However, Aaron Berry gave up big plays, played soft coverage, did not jam receivers at the line, and was terrible at locating the ball.  He and Brandon McDonald both looked awful. The linebackers did an excellent job at containing Finley and the Green Bay running game, as the Packers had just 53 net rushing yards and Finley had just 2 catches for 38 yards.  Our D-line did an outstanding job at containing Aaron Rodgers on the ground, as well as helping hold Green Bay to that 53 rushing yards.  They did pressure Rodgers, sacking him twice, but they did not get to him enough to stop him from surpassing 300 yards passing.

I am not down on our defense at all.  I think they did an excellent job against Green Bay.  2 of Green Bay's TDs came with a short field advantage, so I do not discredit the Lion's defense for that.  That falls on the offense, and more pointedly Matthew Stafford and 2 of his 3 INTS.  The Lion's defense made Green Bay be one dimensional on offense, not unlike many other teams this season, but just like the other 10 teams the Packers have beaten this season, the Lion's D could not stop the passing attack of Green Bay, nor could they keep them from capitalizing on ALL of the turnovers by the offense.  That is what Green Bay does.  They are the best in the NFL at helping teams beat themselves.  It is why they are the defending Super Bowl Champs.  They play a well disciplined, nearly mistake free game, and they create and capitalize on turnovers.  Simple as that.

Lastly, this was my final score prediction:

It's not going to be easy for the Lions at all, and in all likelihood they will be facing an uphill battle tomorrow, but as long as they play a relatively mistake free, well disciplined game, and they execute on offense, this will be a close game.  I'm pulling for a shootout, and the Lions winning 38-35 in OT.

Final score: Packers 27 - Lions 15.  It could have gone the way I thought it might, but the Lions were far from mistake free, they did not play a well disciplined game, and the offense only executed at the end of the 3rd and during the 4th quarters.  Despite all of that, the Packers only beat the Lions by 12 points.  To me, that shows how much the Detroit Lions have improved, and it makes me feel good that they are on their way to being a contender in the near future.  And that is the end of this week's follow up post.  The Lions are still 7-4, and they are still a good team that has playoff potential.  Here is to the hope that they get back on track against New Orleans.  I'll see you all back here, next week, for the Week 13 edition of your WS.  Until then Lion's fans, this has been KDawg with the WS W12E follow-up.  GO LIONS!