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| Titus Young celebrates with a Mile High leap, after his first career TD catch against the Broncos! |
Before I get into the meat and potatoes of my pre-game predictions from last week, I just want to make note of a few small things I said, leading into my predictions. First:
Last week, the Broncos won their 2nd game of the season, with Tim Tebow at the helm, in OT against Miami. With Tebow as the starting QB, Denver adds a running threat to their offense. Against the Dolphins, Denver put together 177 yards on the ground! That was more than enough to make up for Tebow's inefficiencies as a passer, as he was 13 of 27 for 161 yards.While this statement was one of fact, it also implied that if the Broncos were able to do the same against the Lions, that they might have a chance to win the game and keep it close. Well, the Broncos managed to put up a baudy 195 yards rushing against the Lions, but that DID NOT help them in the least when it came to passing the ball or keeping the score close!! In fact, Tim Tebow attempted 39 passes against the Lions, but was only able to complete 18 of them (46%) for 172 yards and an INT. He did manage to throw a TD pass in the 4th quarter once again, but it was against our backups on defense and it came in garbage time. This just goes to show everyone that even if you have a great running game, it does not mean that you will score a lot of points or win a lot of games in today's NFL. Furthermore, from the Lions side of the ball it shows that you can have an average to below average run defense, an average running game on offense, and STILL win games BIG!
Next, I want to recall these statements:
Clearly, at least to me, the Broncos are a completely different team with Tim Tebow at the helm instead of Kyle Orton. They are much more of a running team with Tebow, and they are much less of a passing threat. Tebow makes things happen by force of will and desire to win. It may not be pretty, but he can pass the ball when necessary as well. That said, I also feel that he will be prone to mistakes if the Lion's defense is stopping the run, forcing the Broncos to pass, and getting good pressure on him.Obviously, the first sentence above became a clear statement of the obvious. I am quite positive that Kyle Orton would have done a far superior job passing against the Lions, than Tebow was able to manage. The second sentence also became abundantly clear in this game, with 3 different rusher (including Tebow) all gaining just over 60 yards each against the Lions, and their passing game being rather pathetic in the face of constant pressure from the Lion's front 7. Tebow's force of will and desire was a non-factor in this game, and a vast majority of his passes were nothing but UGLY. He was clearly prone to mistakes, even though the Lions did not exactly STOP the Denver run game, as the Lion's defense DID get constant pressure on him as they were forced to pass the ball. The Broncos were not forced to pass because the Lions were dominant against the run however, but rather because the Lion's defense was doing enough to keep Denver from scoring, while the Lion's offense was firing on all cylinders and putting tons of points on the board. Denver was forced to pass because they were so far behind on the scoreboard, and with the pass rush dominating up front, Tim Tebow could not handle the pressure and he folded like a house of cards in a hurricane!
Here is my third set of items of note:
As was pointed out by my friend Pete in his post earlier, the Lion's defense (on average) is allowing more yards per game in every category than Denver's offense has gained on average. On the other side of the ball, the Lion's offense is producing more passing yards than Denver's defense has allowed, on average. Denver's defense is allowing more rushing and total yards than the Lion's offense has been producing, on average. What this means is that it is likely that the Lions will produce near their average numbers when passing on offense, that they will likely be as successful as they have been while running the ball, if not slightly above average, and that it is also very likely that the Lions will gain their average in total yards, at a minimum. Conversely, it is also likely that Denver will produce at least their average numbers in passing, rushing, and total yards, with potential to exceed those numbers.To recap, the Lions DID produce near their current average numbers in passing, as Matthew Stafford threw for 267 yards (263 net, and the Lions are averaging 260.6 ypg passing), they WERE slightly more successful than normal when rushing the ball (they were averaging 95.2 yards per game, and they turned in 113 yards net rushing against Denver), and they DID, at a minimum, gain their average in total yards for the game (They were averaging 355.6 ypg total offense, and they produced 376 yards of total offense against Denver). How did Denver do against their averages? Well, they are averaging 305.4 ypg total, and they managed to put up 312 total yards of offense against Detroit. They are averaging 179.6 ypg passing, and Tebow passed for 172 yards, but they managed to put up just 117 net passing yards against the Lions. And lastly, they are averaging 125.9 yards per game rushing, and they actually rushed for a net of 195 yards against Detroit (exceeding their average). Well done Pete, your numbers were spot on!
Skipping past the informational posting of the injury reports, I want to recall the ultimate keys to victory:
With all of that in mind, let's talk about the Lion's ultimate keys to victory this week. Clearly, with Tim Tebow at QB for the Broncos, the Lions are going to have to force Denver to pass the ball. This means that ultimately they MUST stop the run. Whether it be Tebow, Moreno, or Lance Ball running it, the Lions must contain them and keep them from being able to rack up yards and control the clock. IF the Lions can force Tebow to pass, and also put some consistent pressure on him, then I think we will see multiple turnovers by Denver in this game. Tebow is only passing for 45.9% completions, but he has rushed for 96 yards, and a 6 ypc average, in just 5 quarters of play, to the tune of a QB rating of 94.4. The Lions must also protect Matthew Stafford and give him time to throw the ball. Matthew Stafford MUST settle down and make accurate passes, like he did in the first few weeks of the season and during the preseason. Lastly, the Lions WRs MUST do a better job of getting open and then CATCHING the ball when it comes their way! These are the Lion's ultimate keys to victory, but they must also execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties(PLEASE!), and win the time of possession battle as secondary keys to victory.Force Denver to pass the ball...check. It may not have been due to the fact that the Lions were stifling against the run, but regardless they still DID force Denver to pass the ball because of the fact that our offense was unstoppable and had built a huge lead quickly. As the Lions forced Denver to pass the ball, they also put a lot of pressure on Tim Tebow, and they did it so consistently that Denver DID turn the ball over multiple times (1 INT and 2 fumbles). To top it off, the Lions returned two of those turnovers for TDs (a 100 yard pick 6 by Chris Houston, and a 24 yard fumble return by Cliff Avril). Stop the run...not so much. Even though the Lions allowed Denver to rack up 195 yards rushing, it did not allow the Broncos to control the clock significantly enough to make a difference. In fact, the Lions possessed the ball for just 26 seconds LESS than Denver. Clearly, our offense was far more efficient and superior all around, and the small difference in TOP was not significant enough to alter the outcome of the game. Protect Stafford and give him time to throw...check. Stafford was sacked twice by Denver, but he clearly had enough time to pass most of the time, as he tossed 3 TD passes and completed 70% of his passes!! YEAH BABY! That's what I'm talking about! Stafford settled down, made accurate passes, the WRs were doing a great job of getting open and catching the ball, and the Lions executed very well on offense, FINALLY avoiding the senseless penalties (they had just 4 for 45 yards on the game)! Even though they lost the time of possession battle, it was by only 26 seconds, so all in all they did pretty much everything I wanted them to do!
I then stated the following:
I honestly believe that Denver has an uphill battle to fight this week. They are going to have to stop Matthew Stafford from being able to set up and read the defense, they are going to have to rattle his cage, and they are going to have to be stout against the run while also containing our receiving threats if they hope to win this game. The Lions are clearly beatable, but it is going to take a successful running game, clock control, and a Herculean effort on defense for Denver to beat Detroit. If the Lions can successfully stop the run, keeping Denver from getting out to a fast start and forcing them to throw the ball, they will win this game.Statement 1: TRUE. Denver was definitely fighting an uphill battle against the Lions. Statement 2: TRUE. The Broncos did not stop Stafford from setting up and reading the defense, they did not rattle him whatsoever, they did not stop the run effectively, and they could not contain our recievers! As such, they had no hope of winning the game, and they got dismantled accordingly. Statement 3: TRUE. The Lions are NOT unbeatable, but even though Denver had a successful running game, and they won the TOP battle, they certainly did not produce the necessary Herculean effort on defense needed to beat the Lions. Statement 4: TRUE. Even though the Lions were not successful at stopping the run game of Denver, they did keep them from getting out to a fast start, and they did force them to throw the ball. The result was a BIG win.
Now we will recall my pick for key player on offense:
Offensively for the Lions, I believe the key player this week is going to be Matthew Stafford. Surely Calvin Johnson, the rest of the WRs, the RBs, and especially the offensive line will play significant roles, but as long as they are doing at least an average job for their positions, everything will rest on the young shoulders of #9. If Stafford can stay composed, shake the nerves and worries, and get back to the confident swagger we all saw early in the season, then I think the Lions will roll on Denver. If he is dancing around like he's walking barefoot on a bed of hot coals, like he did several times last week and the week before, then we could be in for more of the sub to low 50% completions percentage and another long day offensively. Play calling, or maybe even Stafford audibling out of plays at the line of scrimmage, has certainly played a role in our scoring woes lately, and the stupid penalties have also been a thorn in our sides, but if Stafford can just make his progressions quickly, get the ball out, and hit his receivers with some sense of accuracy, then the play calls will not look so pathetic and the penalties will not be as significant. Matthew Stafford is ALWAYS the KEY player for the Lion's offense, and due to his head scratching performances of late I believe we have to look at him to be that key player in this game.Matthew Stafford was MONEY in this game. He threw for 70% completions, 267 yards, and 3 TDs! Just as the "experts" said this week, when Matthew Stafford lulls, the Detroit Lions also lull, but when Matthew Stafford RISES, so do the Detroit Lions. Matthew Stafford was CLEARLY the KEY player for the Lions on offense against the Broncos, and he did everything positive that I was hoping and looking for. That's all I have to say about that...:o)
The following was my pick for key player on defense:
Defensively, I believe the key player this week will be none other than Ndamukong Suh. So far this season, Suh has shown a bad tendency to over pursue on running plays. This tendency resulted in huge runs by both Frank Gore and Michael Turner, and those runs were right at Ndamukong Suh. He is a very aggressive player, by nature, but he needs to channel that aggressiveness to include both pass rushing and run stopping abilities. Suh was quoted as saying "We've learned from the last two losses and we've corrected our mistakes". Well I certainly hope he has, and I hope we see him start getting rough with running backs, just like he already has with QBs. I believe that Suh and the Detroit Lion's defense is going to be very tough this weekend. If Suh can play both the run and the pass, then I don't think ANY runner for Denver will be going anywhere on Sunday, and I think Tim Tebow will be in for a long day as well. Suh's presence alone is enough that it demands double teams on almost every play. If he overpursues on running plays, in a misguided effort to satiate some guttural desire to kill every QB alive, then we will continue to see the Lions get beat by running backs, right up the middle. Take up the double team! Read the offense! Stay home on running plays! Plug the hole! Shed the block! Make the tackle! Attack the QB on passing plays! Fight through the double team and refuse to be blocked! Tackle the QB, but DO NOT hit him with your hands (especially to the head or face)...lower your shoulders and run him over! CELEBRATE, but keep it cool! REPEAT! /Rant. Suh is going to be the key player on defense, if he keeps his head and uses strength and technique together, instead of blind rage and brute strength alone. I believe he understands this, and hopefully that is what we will see.Arguments could easily be made here for both Chris Houston and Cliff Avril. Chris Houston had 4 tackles and 2 assists, and he had a 100 yard pick 6. Cliff Avril had 3 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, AND a fumble return for a TD. On the surface, one might argue that certainly one of these two players was the key player on defense. I, on the other hand, disagree wholeheartedly. My key pick was SUH, and I believe I was correct. Ndamukong Suh was OUTSTANDING in this game, even though he recorded just 1 tackle. As was pointed out by one of our commenters here, the wide 9 technique employed by the Lions is at least partially to blame for the lack of sacks and tackles by Suh this season. That said, Suh did exactly what I was hoping he would do. He played both the run and the pass, and he was dominant in the middle of our defense (minus one run by Lance Ball, which we can attribute to the wide 9). He was double teamed all day long, freeing up our linebackers and allowing one on one matchups for Avril, KVB, LoJack, etc. He did not overpursue ONCE in this game. He took up the double team, he read the running plays, he stayed home and plugged the holes, and he played a very well disciplined game, completely under control! His performance was KEY, and I feel that it opened the doors for the rest of the D-line and linebackers to put pressure on Tim Tebow, get sacks, make plays against the run, and force quick throws that ultimately resulted in turnovers. I do not think any of that happens without Suh, and that is my argument as to why I still feel he was the key player against Denver.
Lastly, I made a win/loss/score prediction:
Our key guys (Stafford, CJ, SUH and company) beat up on their key guys (Tebow, Moreno, Decker, Thomas, Miller, Bailey, Wilhite, Dawkins etc)...Lions WIN, 28-20.Our key guys certainly did beat up on their key guys! In fact, one could say that they pounded the proverbial crap out of them! I was way off on the final score, but that is because I thought that the Broncos would do a better job at passing the ball than they did, and I felt that their defense would perform better too. I was wrong about those assumptions, and thus wrong about the score. The Lions won 45-10, and they will take momentum into the bye week. Here's to the hope that they will come out in week 10 like men on fire, and use that momentum to make the push for the playoffs! That is all I have for this follow up post, and thus it will now come to an end. There will be no WS W9E, during the bye week, but we'll see you back here before the week 10 game! Until then Lion's fans, this has been KDawg with the WS W8E follow-up. DOWN THE FIELD AND GAIN, A LION VICTORY!! GOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOONS!
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