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| #93 Kyle Vanden Bosch performs a strip sack on Alex Smith last Sunday. |
First of all, I want to congratulate Dr. Doom...I mean TCLion...on the relative accuracy of his foreboding predictions before the last game. He stated that the 49ers would win. They did. He stated that Gore would rip off a few runs with 1 TD. He did (141 yards on 15 carries, including a 47 yarder, a 55 yarder, and 1 rushing TD). He stated that the 49ers would do just enough to win, nothing spectacular, and that in the end the Lions would beat themselves. These statements were; true, mostly true if you don't count Gore's 2 big runs, and VERY true. He went further and said there would be more penalties, another first half hole, and this time the clock would run out on the Lions before a comeback for the win could happen. More penalties? How about 15 for 120 yards. Another first half hole? Check...the Lions were down 10-12 at the half. And lastly, the Lions could not manage to come back and win this time. Right again. In fact, the only statements TCLion made that were not nearly 100% accurate were; 1) Alex Smith will throw for 220 yards and 2 TDs, one to Davis and one to Morgan, and 2) They (SF) will win by a score of 27-24. Alex Smith threw for just 125 yards and 1 TD, and that TD was to Delanie Walker. San Francisco won by a score of 25-19. Overall though, TCLion was damn near spot on...much to my chagrin.
In fact, I was adamant about the very idea that ANYONE would dare predict the 49ers to beat the Lions last week. In a sense, I was justifiably angry and my stubborn unwillingness to yield to any argument contrary to my logic was also justified. The 49ers did not beat the Lions. The Lions beat the Lions. Right? Well, my key player picks, for a Lion victory, were seemingly off the mark as well. But Calvin Johnson and Bobby Carpenter's performances WERE key...but they were key to the Lion's LOSS instead of the key to victory. Had they done as expected then I believe I would have been right, but alas the 49ers bracketed Megatron in all day long, not allowing him to score, even though he had 7 catches for 113 yards, and Bobby Carpenter made the wrong read near the end of the game, which allowed the game winning TD pass to Delanie Walker. Had he made the play there, by either breaking up the pass or at least stopping Walker short of the goal line, then undoubtedly the Lions WOULD have won. Alright...so the 49ers won the game. I'll eat my plate of crow now, and move on.
This installment of your weekly WS will feature the impending collision between the Detroit Lions and the Atlanta Falcons, at home in Detroit, MI, at Ford Field. The Lions are now 5-1 on the season, and even though they are coming off of the loss I am still very excited and confident that they will win this week! Perhaps even more exciting for me is the fact that I will be attending this game in person, with my friends and brethren over at the Pride of Detroit. It's the annual POD outing, and it is going to be a GREAT one! With 6 weeks of the regular season already behind us, I will once again reveal to you who I believe the key players will be, on the Lion's offense and defense, for another Lion VICTORY! As usual, I will provide you with the logic for the reasoning behind my picks, including stats, and I will give you my prediction for the game at the end. The Falcons are 3-3 on the season, and even though 2 of their 3 losses have come against teams that we have already beaten (Chicago and Tampa Bay), they are not a team that should be overlooked. I am sure that the Lions are not looking past Atlanta, and I am sure they will be ready on Sunday. I believe VICTORY will once again be ours this week, and I will tell you why and how as the WS W7E begins...after the jump.
THE SKINNY:
As previously mentioned, the Lions are now 5-1, going into the 7th week of the regular season. I have seen many Lion's fans out there who have said they would not have believed it possible, had you told them the Lions would be 5-1 at this point. I wasn't even sure that the pre-season Lions were not too good to be true, as has been the case many many times in the past. That said, I had boldly predicted victories every week of the regular season. Am I surprised that the Lions are 5-1? No. Did I think they would take it to 6-0? Yes I did. Am I happy with 5-1? You can bet your ass I am! If the Lions are 10-2 after the next 6 games, I will be ecstatic. If they are 9-1 before the Thanksgiving game, as some have predicted, I will be ecstatic. If the Lions win 10 games this season period, I will be ECSTATIC! That said, let's focus on how they will get to 6-1 first. Statistically speaking, the Lions have only faced 2 teams with a defense worse than Atlanta's, and those two teams also beat Atlanta (Chicago and Tampa Bay). Atlanta has also struggled on offense this season, ranking just 20th overall statistically. However, that also means that they will be the 3rd best offense the Lions have faced this season (behind Dallas and Tampa Bay).
The Falcons are 3-3 on the season. They have faced Chicago, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Green Bay, and Carolina, beating Philadelphia, Seattle, and Carolina. In week 1, Atlanta lost to Chicago. However they had more total yards, more offensive plays, and more first downs than the Bears. Turnovers, and explosion plays against them, led to their eventual downfall. They could not stop Matt Forte (68 yards rushing on 16 carries, and 5 catches for 90 yards and a TD), particularly in the second half (although he did have a 56 yard TD catch in the 1st half), or Devin Hester, who made a huge play as a receiver, in the 3rd QTR (a 53 yard catch and run that set up a game sealing TD). Chicago rolled to a 30-12 win. In week 2, Atlanta beat Philadelphia 35-31. Matt Ryan threw a career high 4 TD passes, but also threw 2 INTs. Michael Turner ran for 114 yards and a TD on 21 carries (most of his yards came on a 61 yard explosion play that failed to reach the end zone). The Eagles led 31-21 entering the 4th quarter, but Michael Vick was injured at the end of the 3rd quarter, Atlanta ate up the first 5 minutes of the 4th QTR enroute to a TD, and Mike Kafka could not get the job done. Atlanta scored again on their second possession of the 4th QTR, making the score 35-31, and that was all she wrote.
In week 3, Atlanta lost to Tampa Bay 13-16. The Buccaneers managed to shut off the "Burner", Michael Turner, who had just 20 yards rushing on 11 carries. Matt Ryan threw for 330 yards and a TD on 26 completions (47 attempts), but also tossed an INT in a game marked by turnovers (2 fumbles lost and 1 INT), penalty problems (7 for 50 yards), and offensive line woes (4 sacks allowed) for the Falcons. Tampa rode a rushing TD by Josh Freeman, 3 Conner Barth FGs, and a 4th quarter goal line stand (turnover on downs) to victory. In week 4, Atlanta barely escaped with the win over Seattle, after doing their best Dallas vs Detroit impression. The Falcons stormed out of the gates to a 24-7 lead at the half, led by Michael Turner who had 2 first half rushing TDs. An early 3rd QTR FG by Matt Bryant made it 27-7 Atlanta. Then, all of a sudden Tavaris Jackson and the Seahawks came to life. Jackson's 3 second half TD passes, added to a suddenly stingy defensive effort by Seattle, made it a 3 point game. Atlanta's first drive of the 4th quarter resulted in a FG, but after that it was all Seattle. The Seahawks started their final drive on their own 15 yard line, with 1:49 left in the game, and marched the ball all the way past mid-field to the Atlanta 43 yard line. On 4th down and 8, Seattle sent Steven Hauschka on to attempt a 61 yard FG to win the game. He missed, and the Falcons took a knee with 13 seconds left to pull out the win. Matt Ryan finished the game with 291 yards on 28 completions (42 attemepts), Michael Turner finished with 70 yards and 2 TDs on 26 carries, and rookie Julio Jones had 11 catches for 127 yards (Gonzo and Hot Rod combined for 13 catches, 134 yards, and a TD (Gonzo).
In week 5, Atlanta lost to Green Bay. At first it looked like the Falcons would win convincingly against the defending Super Bowl champions, as they jumped out to a 14-0 lead early in the 2nd QTR. The Packers finally got it going a little bit, stopping Atlanta on a couple of drives while also putting together 2 drives that ended with FGs. Atlanta took a 14-6 lead into the half. The score remained 14-6 until the 5:33 mark of the 3rd QTR, when GB connected on a third FG to make the score 14-9. The Atlanta offense was pretty terrible in this game, against one of the weaker defenses in the NFL, as the Falcons did not manage to score after their last TD early in the 2nd QTR (or do much of anything actually). After closing to within 5 points, Aaron Rodgers suddenly lit on fire, passing for 2 TDs in a row and gaining a 22-14 lead. The Packers added another FG in the 4th QTR and won 25-14. Matt Ryan finished the game 18-32 for 167 yards, a TD, and 2 INTs. Michael Turner had 56 yards rushing, and a TD, on 16 carries. Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White had 6 catches each, for a combined 110 yards (60 for Gonzo and 50 for White) and a TD (White). And lastly in week 6, Atlanta beat Carolina 31-17. The story of this game was a difference in defense, with Carolina not being able to stop the run, and Atlanta putting an end to Cam Newton's TD throwing streak. The Falcon defense caused 5 turnovers (3 INTS and 2 fumbles recovered), and did not allow a passing TD. However, they did allow 2 rushing TDs (Newton and Stewart). Matt Ryan finished the game 14-22 for 163 yards and a TD (Mughelli), and Michael Turner rushed for 139 yards and 2 TDs on 27 carries, but everyone else was relatively quiet.
Once again, I feel it is pretty clear that if you want to beat Atlanta you have to stop Michael Turner. The Falcons can also beat you with the pass, but if you force them to throw the ball more often than not then you give yourself a much better chance to force mistakes and turnovers. If Michael Turner is on a roll, the Falcons will keep going to that well until it is dry, eating up the clock in the process. If Turner can not get it going, the Falcons will throw the ball all day long. That is what the Lions need to do. Force the Falcons to pass, get after Matt Ryan, and let the rest of the defense create turnovers.
With that, let's take a quick look at the final injury reports of the week for both teams, and see who will and will not be playing on Sunday:
| Detroit Lions Week 7 Injury Report | ||||||
| POS. | NAME | INJURY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Jahvid Best | Concussion | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| WR | Rashied Davis | Foot | DNP | DNP | DNP | Doubtful |
| CB | Eric Wright | Illness | Not Listed | Not Listed | DNP | Probable |
| DE | Willie Young | Calf | Not Listed | Not Listed | LP | Questionable |
| CB | Aaron Berry | Groin | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| T | Gosder Cherilus | Knee | LP | LP | LP | Probable |
| LB | Justin Durant | Concussion | DNP | LP | LP | Probable |
| S | Vincent Fuller | Elbow | DNP | LP | LP | Doubtful |
| CB | Chris Houston | Back | DNP | LP | LP | Probable |
| TE | Tony Scheffler | Concussion | DNP | LP | LP | Probable |
| LB | Doug Hogue | Hamstring | FP | FP | FP | Probable |
| Atlanta Falcons Week 7 Injury Report | ||||||
| POS. | NAME | INJURY | WEDNESDAY | THURSDAY | FRIDAY | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Julio Jones | Hamstring | DNP | DNP | DNP | Doubtful |
| CB | Christopher Owens | Concussion | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| DE | John Abraham | Groin | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| T | Sam Baker | Back | DNP | DNP | LP | Questionable |
| C | Todd McClure | Knee | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| G | Garrett Reynolds | Ankle | DNP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| DT | Jonathan Babineaux | Knee | FP | FP | FP | Probable |
| TE | Tony Gonzalez | Elbow | FP | FP | FP | Probable |
| S | James Sanders | Hamstring | LP | LP | FP | Probable |
| WR | Roddy White | Knee | FP | FP | FP | Probable |
For the first time this season, I believe their could be some advantages and disadvantages, for both teams, due to injuries. First of all, the Lions will be without Jahvid Best this week due to his 2nd concussion in 2 months. That means we will see Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams likely share the load. Not that either of these guys is a terrible running back, but they are not Jahvid Best, they do not have his speed, and they do not have the home run hitting potential that Best carries. They will try to grind out yards, and they will likely combine for somewhere around 40-70 yards rushing (I pray I am wrong). That will play to the advantage of the Atlanta defense, as they will be able to focus more on stopping Calvin Johnson and getting to Matt Stafford, rather than having to worry about getting beat by Jahvid Best. On the other side of the ball, Julio Jones is listed as doubtful for Atlanta, and their starting C, RG, and LT are all banged up and questionable. If any combination of those 3 offensive lineman do not play, or if none of them play, it will be a major advantage for our defensive line. Without Julio Jones Atlanta loses it's number 1 deep threat. Even though Roddy White can still get it done in that capacity, it will be advantageous to our secondary to be able to shade more to White's side. John Abraham is also listed as questionable. If he does not play, it will take a lot of pressure off of Jeff Backus (who got his ass handed to him a number of times last week). While this may only provide us with a small advantage, we will still have to deal with Ray Edwards (who has been known to wreck the Lions in the past), Corey Peters, Jonathan Babineaux, and Peria Jerry (all of which are pretty solid in the middle). Abraham's backup is Lawrence Sidbury...I think Backus can handle him solo, which is the small advantage of Stafford not having to worry as much about his blind side. The rest of the injuries seem pretty inconsequential.
With all of that in mind, I believe the ultimate keys to victory for the Lions will be stopping Michael Turner first and foremost, pressuring and sacking Matt Ryan early and often, forcing mistakes and turnovers, and protecting Matthew Stafford so that he has time to throw the ball. The secondary keys to victory have not changed (execute on offense, avoid the senseless penalties, and control the time of possession). The Lions could be in big trouble if they can not stop the run, or if they can't force Matt Ryan to make mistakes with consistent pressure. After watching our passing offense flounder last week, and knowing that our running game isn't going to be anything special this week, it makes me worry what will happen if Atlanta comes out firing on all cylinders and takes a significant lead into the half. What I hope happens, and what I want to see on Sunday, is the Lions stuffing Michael Turner left and right, while also putting Matt Ryan on his back regularly. If the defense can keep us in the game, at the very least, then the Lions should be able to find ways to win. If the defense gives Turner room, like they did Gore last week, and if the Lions beat themselves with stupid penalties and mistakes, then it could prove to be a very long and ugly day.
KEY PLAYERS:
At the risk of being repetitive, I am going to go with Calvin Johnson as the key player on the Lion's offense again this week. I believe the Lions will spread the ball to multiple receivers against Atlanta, because their defense in definitely beatable, but I look for CJ to put up huge numbers this week. If Jeremy Maclin can catch 13 passes for 171 yards and 2 TDs against the Falcons, then certainly Calvin Johnson can post similar numbers. I believe Burleson, Young, Pettigrew, and Scheffler will also see a fair number of targets (4-6 each), but in the end I believe Megatron will have the most targets, the most catches, the most yards, and the most TDs of any of the Lion's receivers. I am betting that Stafford will throw the ball between 40-50 times this week, so he will be the secondary key player. Stafford needs to complete more than 28 passes out of 50, and if he can top 60% completions this week I believe the Lions will win.
Defensively, my choice for key player this week is the entire front 7. The front 7 will be tasked with stopping the Falcons #1 offensive threat, Michael Turner, putting pressure on Matt Ryan so that he can't set up for the deep passes, and also making sure that Tony Gonzalez can't beat us. I can't pick one single person out of the front 7 this week, because all three of those things are equally important. If I were forced to choose, I would say priority 1 is stopping Turner, and subsequently I would choose from Tulloch, Levy, Durant, Suh, and Williams for a key player. I would say priority 2 is pressuring Matt Ryan and not allowing him time to set up for deep passes, and subsequently I would choose from Avril, Suh, Williams, and Vanden Bosch for a key player. That leaves priority 3 being stopping Gonzo from beating us, and subsequently I would choose from Levy, Durant, Delmas, and Spievey for a key player. In this case, I feel that ALL of these guys are going to have to play a very strong game in order to keep Turner from running all over us, Houston and Wright from getting beat deep all day long, Matt Ryan from picking us apart, and Tony Gonzalez from being the go to guy that beats us.
PREDICTION:
My prediction is a shootout. It will be close, but the Lions will win by a FG, 31-28.
I want to thank all of you who read this post. As always, I hope the refs do not beat us, and I hope that the Lions play a well disciplined game. This has been KDawg, and you have been reading the week 7 edition of the Weekend Spotlight! Happy Football Sunday ladies and gentlemen, and GOOOOOOOOOO LIOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNSS!!!!!
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